Monday, October 26, 2009
Comparing Bo Xilai with Chairman Mao??
The People's Daily published the following curious comparison between Bo Xilai and Chairman Mao. Just as Mao was forced by circumstances in 1927 to fight guerilla warfare, Bo Xilai was likewise forced by circumstances to get rid of the mafia in Chongqing....Eh, I am speechless. This is either someone at RMRB trying very hard to pander to Bo, or even worse, Bo himself ordered the publication of this article in open defiance to the current succession arrangement. Actually, the historical parallels may not be so far fetched-- Mao was a dark horse and was at the bottom of the elite in 1927. However, after ruthless struggle against both internal enemies and the KMT, Mao had become the top leader of the CCP by 1937.
http://opinion.people.com.cn/GB/1036/10256800.html
薄熙来被逼打黑与毛泽东被逼“扛枪”
王皋子
2009年10月26日09:20 来源：人民网-观点频道
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重庆打黑，很有点如诗歌描绘的那样，犹如“秋风扫落叶”，一下子就将1500多涉黑分子逮捕归案，其中，包括60多名黑帮头目和50多名公务员以及身价高达数千亿的3名企业家。重庆人民就像49年迎解放一样欢天喜地，一位农民为之拿出10余万无作广告，以示欢庆。
然而，就在人们为之称颂不已时，重庆市委书记薄熙来在出席世界中文报业协会年会前，向媒体代表们说：“打黑不是我们要主动而为，而是黑恶势力逼得我们没办法。”
好像一滴冷水掉进热油锅，网上网下一下子炸开了，有的网民甚至忽然间有点像“丈二和尚摸不着头”：一向果敢的薄哥发动组织的这次轰轰烈烈的重庆打黑怎么不是“主动而为”，而是被黑恶势力“逼得没办法”？
其实，这根本就没什么大惊小怪的。当年毛泽东在回答国际友人是“怎么建立新中国的”时，就说是“逼上梁山”，是因为“蒋介石不给我们活路，把我们逼上了绝境，就这么七逼八逼，逼出一个新中国”。类似的话，周恩来也曾在他的“自述”里说过：人走上革命道路不是先天的，而是由于外来的压迫和环境造成的。为此，台湾著名作家李敖曾一针见血地指出，蒋介石失败就失败在清共，如果蒋介石不是发动四一二反革命政变，大肆屠杀共产党和革命群众，共产党和工农群众也不会走上武装反抗的道路。
毛泽东被逼领导中国人民“扛枪”闹革命与薄熙来被逼打黑，让我们看到，反动黑恶势力是疯狂的，又是虚弱的。反动势力也好，黑恶势力也罢，往往都不得人心，人所共愤，因为他们丧失人性，从来就不会因为人民的善良而良心发现，放下屠刀，立地成佛。当年“四·一二”反革命政变是这样，重庆的黑恶势力对重庆人民也是这样，用薄熙来的叙述来说：“黑恶势力拿刀砍人，就像屠户用刀砍杀牲畜，惨不忍睹。”“我们清缴刀具，大砍刀堆积如山。”“谢才萍开赌场从中抽头，赌场开在五星级饭店，旱涝保收。这连清朝道光皇帝和林则徐都不能容忍”。显然，这些黑恶势力如果任其下去，就会变本加厉，越加猖狂，越加残忍。
是呵，共产党是努力追求进步，追求文明，他们丝毫也不会容忍落后、丑恶、反动的东西存在的。但是，共产党又是最大公无私，最能委屈求全，顾全大局的。当着“卢沟桥的枪炮”敲响中华民族生死存亡的警钟，中国共产党毅然肩负起挽救民族危亡的历史使命，号召全国人民奋起抗日，放弃前嫌，有力地促成了西安事变和平解决，推动了全民抗战。同样，当前，中国共产党正团结一切可以团结的力量，调动一切积极因素，领导全国人民“聚精会神搞建设、一心一意谋发展”，努力加快推进中华民族的伟大复兴。这自然是我们当前地大局。但是，中国共产党又时刻代表着最广大人民的根本利益，当着人民的生命财产受到严重威胁时，作为地方党委，作为一级人民政府，怎么会对之袖手旁观而无动于衷呢？所以，黑恶势力以为共产党正一门心思搞建设了，便可以任其为所欲为，就实在只能是打错算盘，自寻灭亡了。这，才是薄熙来被逼打黑的根本原因所在。
毛泽东关于被逼“扛枪”与薄熙来关于被逼打黑的率直表白，显示了他们对反动派和黑恶势力的极度愤怒和共产党人“逼上梁山”的无比正义性。它让我们看到中国共产党是坚定顽强、勇往无敌的政党，也是伟大仁爱、光明磊落的政党。只有这样一个政党，才是最合民意、最得民心的政党，因而也才是最有前途、最能领导中国人民完成中华民族复兴大业的政党。
The People's Daily published the following curious comparison between Bo Xilai and Chairman Mao. Just as Mao was forced by circumstances in 1927 to fight guerilla warfare, Bo Xilai was likewise forced by circumstances to get rid of the mafia in Chongqing....Eh, I am speechless. This is either someone at RMRB trying very hard to pander to Bo, or even worse, Bo himself ordered the publication of this article in open defiance to the current succession arrangement. Actually, the historical parallels may not be so far fetched-- Mao was a dark horse and was at the bottom of the elite in 1927. However, after ruthless struggle against both internal enemies and the KMT, Mao had become the top leader of the CCP by 1937.
http://opinion.people.com.cn/GB/1036/10256800.html
薄熙来被逼打黑与毛泽东被逼“扛枪”
王皋子
2009年10月26日09:20 来源：人民网-观点频道
【字号 大 中 小】 打印 留言 论坛 网摘 手机点评 纠错
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重庆打黑，很有点如诗歌描绘的那样，犹如“秋风扫落叶”，一下子就将1500多涉黑分子逮捕归案，其中，包括60多名黑帮头目和50多名公务员以及身价高达数千亿的3名企业家。重庆人民就像49年迎解放一样欢天喜地，一位农民为之拿出10余万无作广告，以示欢庆。
然而，就在人们为之称颂不已时，重庆市委书记薄熙来在出席世界中文报业协会年会前，向媒体代表们说：“打黑不是我们要主动而为，而是黑恶势力逼得我们没办法。”
好像一滴冷水掉进热油锅，网上网下一下子炸开了，有的网民甚至忽然间有点像“丈二和尚摸不着头”：一向果敢的薄哥发动组织的这次轰轰烈烈的重庆打黑怎么不是“主动而为”，而是被黑恶势力“逼得没办法”？
其实，这根本就没什么大惊小怪的。当年毛泽东在回答国际友人是“怎么建立新中国的”时，就说是“逼上梁山”，是因为“蒋介石不给我们活路，把我们逼上了绝境，就这么七逼八逼，逼出一个新中国”。类似的话，周恩来也曾在他的“自述”里说过：人走上革命道路不是先天的，而是由于外来的压迫和环境造成的。为此，台湾著名作家李敖曾一针见血地指出，蒋介石失败就失败在清共，如果蒋介石不是发动四一二反革命政变，大肆屠杀共产党和革命群众，共产党和工农群众也不会走上武装反抗的道路。
毛泽东被逼领导中国人民“扛枪”闹革命与薄熙来被逼打黑，让我们看到，反动黑恶势力是疯狂的，又是虚弱的。反动势力也好，黑恶势力也罢，往往都不得人心，人所共愤，因为他们丧失人性，从来就不会因为人民的善良而良心发现，放下屠刀，立地成佛。当年“四·一二”反革命政变是这样，重庆的黑恶势力对重庆人民也是这样，用薄熙来的叙述来说：“黑恶势力拿刀砍人，就像屠户用刀砍杀牲畜，惨不忍睹。”“我们清缴刀具，大砍刀堆积如山。”“谢才萍开赌场从中抽头，赌场开在五星级饭店，旱涝保收。这连清朝道光皇帝和林则徐都不能容忍”。显然，这些黑恶势力如果任其下去，就会变本加厉，越加猖狂，越加残忍。
是呵，共产党是努力追求进步，追求文明，他们丝毫也不会容忍落后、丑恶、反动的东西存在的。但是，共产党又是最大公无私，最能委屈求全，顾全大局的。当着“卢沟桥的枪炮”敲响中华民族生死存亡的警钟，中国共产党毅然肩负起挽救民族危亡的历史使命，号召全国人民奋起抗日，放弃前嫌，有力地促成了西安事变和平解决，推动了全民抗战。同样，当前，中国共产党正团结一切可以团结的力量，调动一切积极因素，领导全国人民“聚精会神搞建设、一心一意谋发展”，努力加快推进中华民族的伟大复兴。这自然是我们当前地大局。但是，中国共产党又时刻代表着最广大人民的根本利益，当着人民的生命财产受到严重威胁时，作为地方党委，作为一级人民政府，怎么会对之袖手旁观而无动于衷呢？所以，黑恶势力以为共产党正一门心思搞建设了，便可以任其为所欲为，就实在只能是打错算盘，自寻灭亡了。这，才是薄熙来被逼打黑的根本原因所在。
毛泽东关于被逼“扛枪”与薄熙来关于被逼打黑的率直表白，显示了他们对反动派和黑恶势力的极度愤怒和共产党人“逼上梁山”的无比正义性。它让我们看到中国共产党是坚定顽强、勇往无敌的政党，也是伟大仁爱、光明磊落的政党。只有这样一个政党，才是最合民意、最得民心的政党，因而也才是最有前途、最能领导中国人民完成中华民族复兴大业的政党。
Comments:
It now seems clear that Zhou Yongkang has backed Bo. More broadly speaking, it would seem that Bo - known to have wanted the Guangdong party secretary gig - is to some extent targeting Wang Yang, as he was previously in Chongqing, and was most certainly in cahoots with all of the business people and local officials now in jail. How does Wen benefit from all of this, or does he complete the love triangle somehow?
Post a Comment
# posted by 
: 12:41 AM
: 12:41 AM
Why China Isn't Ready to Lead
Dear all, my WSJ op ed from last Friday in case some of you missed it. This is not a criticism of the IMF for restructuring, but just a commentary on the irony of it all.
Property rights and contracts are still subordinate to the Party's interests.
By VICTOR SHIH
In an era when the most developed economies are running record fiscal deficits, it is reasonable to look for new global economic leadership. Gauging solely by officially reported deficits and cash reserves, China seems an ideal candidate. Indeed, a senior International Monetary Fund bureaucrat revealed Saturday in Beijing that China may soon become the second-largest shareholder in the organization after internal restructuring.
But leadership does not depend on cash reserves alone. To lay credible claim to a bigger global role, Beijing must show it understands the rules that make a modern economy work and how to play by them. The economic downturn has only shown how far behind Beijing is in this regard. China's market institutions clearly lag those in more advanced Asian and Western countries. Parts of the government continue to blatantly disregard property rights and contracts. Rules are conveniently bent to favor powerful state entities.
View Full Image
Shih
David Klein
Shih
Shih
The greatest victims of the government's disregard for property rights and contracts are domestic private entrepreneurs. Recent months saw the forced nationalization and mergers of hundreds of privately leased or owned coal mines. With the issuance of a few decrees from Beijing, domestic investors who plowed their own savings into mining lost billions. Similar examples abound in other sectors, as state agencies try to alleviate a growing overcapacity problem by forcing private firms to sell out to state-owned competitors at state-mandated prices. Because the legal system and state agencies all stand on the side of state firms, private firms have little recourse to oppose government takeovers.
Foreign investors, who used to enjoy some protection from state predatory behavior, have also fallen victim to this in the downturn. To lessen the losses of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that entered into money-losing derivatives contracts with offshore counterparties, the State Asset Supervision and Administration Commission, the regulator for state firms, indicated to stunned bankers in Hong Kong in early September that these SOEs may not honor their contracts because the Commission never granted some SOEs the permission to enter into derivatives contracts. Not wanting to anger the government, foreign banks are now leaning toward arbitration, but a sour taste has been left in their mouths.
In a similar case, foreign investors in China's enormous distressed-asset market were surprised by a July decision by the Supreme People's Court that foreign investors who had legally purchased a nonperforming loan cannot obtain the collateral that the original guarantor pledged to a loan without the guarantor's permission and without the approval of the local foreign-exchange authorities. This decision makes it very difficult for foreign investors in distressed assets to collect on collateral that is legally bound to a given loan without surmounting numerous legal and bureaucratic hurdles.
This ruling shows China's lack of preparation even more clearly than the reneged derivatives deals. Foreign investors in distressed loans were invited by the government in the early 2000s to help digest more than 1.4 trillion yuan ($205 billion) in nonperforming loans. These investors have helped China rescue billions in distressed assets, rehabilitating many into profitable businesses. But when a well-connected state firm, Chongqing Yi De Industrial, appealed the Supreme People's Court to overturn an earlier decision in favor of the foreign creditor, the judges went against elements of its earlier rulings and ruled in favor of Yi De Industrial in July. The legal system's usual bias toward connected insiders once again seemed to have determined the outcome.
In all these examples, the Chinese government could have chosen to show the world it is willing to respect property rights, enforce contracts fairly and discipline firms that violate the rules regardless of their political connections. Instead rules were disregarded to maintain the facade of relative budgetary balance and SOE profitability, and connected insiders and large SOEs with political influence were once again told that they need not adhere to contracts. Private entrepreneurs and outsiders were reminded that the law means little without political backing.
Chinese decision makers need to realize that global economic leadership does not stem only from a large cash hoard. In the long run, a credible respect for property rights and unbiased contract enforcement will draw a larger share of global investors into the Chinese economic sphere. Until such a day arrives, China's economy will tend to attract connected rent seekers who profit from the government's willingness to bend the rules.
Mr. Shih is assistant professor of political science at Northwestern University and the author of "Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation" (Cambridge University Press, 2008).
Dear all, my WSJ op ed from last Friday in case some of you missed it. This is not a criticism of the IMF for restructuring, but just a commentary on the irony of it all.
Property rights and contracts are still subordinate to the Party's interests.
By VICTOR SHIH
In an era when the most developed economies are running record fiscal deficits, it is reasonable to look for new global economic leadership. Gauging solely by officially reported deficits and cash reserves, China seems an ideal candidate. Indeed, a senior International Monetary Fund bureaucrat revealed Saturday in Beijing that China may soon become the second-largest shareholder in the organization after internal restructuring.
But leadership does not depend on cash reserves alone. To lay credible claim to a bigger global role, Beijing must show it understands the rules that make a modern economy work and how to play by them. The economic downturn has only shown how far behind Beijing is in this regard. China's market institutions clearly lag those in more advanced Asian and Western countries. Parts of the government continue to blatantly disregard property rights and contracts. Rules are conveniently bent to favor powerful state entities.
View Full Image
Shih
David Klein
Shih
Shih
The greatest victims of the government's disregard for property rights and contracts are domestic private entrepreneurs. Recent months saw the forced nationalization and mergers of hundreds of privately leased or owned coal mines. With the issuance of a few decrees from Beijing, domestic investors who plowed their own savings into mining lost billions. Similar examples abound in other sectors, as state agencies try to alleviate a growing overcapacity problem by forcing private firms to sell out to state-owned competitors at state-mandated prices. Because the legal system and state agencies all stand on the side of state firms, private firms have little recourse to oppose government takeovers.
Foreign investors, who used to enjoy some protection from state predatory behavior, have also fallen victim to this in the downturn. To lessen the losses of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) that entered into money-losing derivatives contracts with offshore counterparties, the State Asset Supervision and Administration Commission, the regulator for state firms, indicated to stunned bankers in Hong Kong in early September that these SOEs may not honor their contracts because the Commission never granted some SOEs the permission to enter into derivatives contracts. Not wanting to anger the government, foreign banks are now leaning toward arbitration, but a sour taste has been left in their mouths.
In a similar case, foreign investors in China's enormous distressed-asset market were surprised by a July decision by the Supreme People's Court that foreign investors who had legally purchased a nonperforming loan cannot obtain the collateral that the original guarantor pledged to a loan without the guarantor's permission and without the approval of the local foreign-exchange authorities. This decision makes it very difficult for foreign investors in distressed assets to collect on collateral that is legally bound to a given loan without surmounting numerous legal and bureaucratic hurdles.
This ruling shows China's lack of preparation even more clearly than the reneged derivatives deals. Foreign investors in distressed loans were invited by the government in the early 2000s to help digest more than 1.4 trillion yuan ($205 billion) in nonperforming loans. These investors have helped China rescue billions in distressed assets, rehabilitating many into profitable businesses. But when a well-connected state firm, Chongqing Yi De Industrial, appealed the Supreme People's Court to overturn an earlier decision in favor of the foreign creditor, the judges went against elements of its earlier rulings and ruled in favor of Yi De Industrial in July. The legal system's usual bias toward connected insiders once again seemed to have determined the outcome.
In all these examples, the Chinese government could have chosen to show the world it is willing to respect property rights, enforce contracts fairly and discipline firms that violate the rules regardless of their political connections. Instead rules were disregarded to maintain the facade of relative budgetary balance and SOE profitability, and connected insiders and large SOEs with political influence were once again told that they need not adhere to contracts. Private entrepreneurs and outsiders were reminded that the law means little without political backing.
Chinese decision makers need to realize that global economic leadership does not stem only from a large cash hoard. In the long run, a credible respect for property rights and unbiased contract enforcement will draw a larger share of global investors into the Chinese economic sphere. Until such a day arrives, China's economy will tend to attract connected rent seekers who profit from the government's willingness to bend the rules.
Mr. Shih is assistant professor of political science at Northwestern University and the author of "Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation" (Cambridge University Press, 2008).
Comments:
Sounds a lot like America, cf. Chrysler and GM, eminent domain and sports stadiums etc.
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# posted by : 7:40 PM
: 7:40 PMThursday, October 15, 2009
Xi Jinping Sends Signals by Giving Merkel Books by Jiang
There are moments when my gut tells me that something is very, very wrong in China, and this is one of those moments. Apparently, during his visit to Germany, Vice President Xi Jinping held a meeting with Prime Minister Merkel where he gave Merkel two books authored by the FORMER party secretary general of the CCP Jiang Zemin. The caption of the People's Daily story on the meeting reads "Chinese Vice President Xi Jinping (L) presents two books written by former Chinese leader Jiang Zemin to German Chancellor Angela Merkel at the start of their meeting in the Chancellery in Berlin, capital of Germany, Oct. 12, 2009.(Xinhua/Lan Hongguang)" You can check out the whole story by going here.
So, what is one to make of this. This is clearly a strong signal of some kind. Willy Lam, as always, presents an incisive interpretation that Xi is showing his strong disapproval of Hu's delay of his entrance into the Central Military Commission (see below). The presentation of books by Jiang also signals to Jiang his loyalty, and is basically asking Jiang to ensure his entrance into the CMC. In conjunction with Jiang's prominent presence during the anniversary, Jiang seems to be making a strong come-back in the run-up to the 18th Party Congress. The reason why this move is making me queasy is that in order to maintain his authority before the 18th Party Congress, Hu will need to do something drastic to show that he still has real power and would not stand for such humiliating displays of disloyalty from Xi. I await with rather dreadful anticipation of what will come next.
Asian Sentinel
Cracks in China's Great Politburo Wall Print E-mail
Written by Willy Lam
Tuesday, 13 October 2009
ImageVice-President Xi Jinping drops strong hint at big rift with President Hu Jintao
Now we know what Vice-President Xi Jinping must have felt when he failed to make it to the Chinese Communist Party's Central Military Commission at a plenary session of the Central Committee last month. The supposed front-runner to succeed Party Chief and President Hu Jintao apparently blamed the supremo for not inducting him into the policy-setting military commission, which has been headed by Hu since 2004.
During his current trip to five European countries, Xi, 56, has departed from protocol and hardly given Hu a mention. According to long-standing diplomatic custom, a senior Chinese cadre on tour would first convey to his hosts the greetings of President Hu. Xi's failure to acknowledge and salute Hu's leadership was most obvious when he met with German Chancellor Angela Merkel in Berlin on Monday.
Before the official discussion began, Xi handed to Merkel the English editions of two books – on energy and on information technology – written by ex-president Jiang Zemin. According to the official Xinhua News Agency, Xi then "passed along Comrade Jiang Zemin's greetings and good wishes" to the German leader. Merkel reciprocated by asking Xi to send her greetings to Jiang. There was no reference to Hu throughout the two leaders' tete-a-tete.
This was the first time in less than two weeks that ex-president Jiang, 83, appears to have upstaged the 67-year-old Hu. During celebrations to mark the 60th birthday of the People's Republic of China on October 1, the official Chinese media gave Jiang pretty much the same prominence as Hu. For example, he appeared 20 times on CCTV's coverage of the all-important military parade. And Hu was caught a couple of times on TV assuming a humble posture next to the talkative and high-spirited Jiang. The next day, the People's Daily put two same-sized pictures of Hu and Jiang side by side on its front page.
As the highest-ranked Fifth-Generation politician in the supreme Politburo Standing Committee, Xi is slated to succeed Hu as party general secretary at the 18th CCP Congress in October 2012 – and as state president a few months later. Yet it is well-known among political circles in Beijing that Xi does not come from Hu's Communist Youth League faction. Instead, the son of former vice-premier Xi Zhongxun is the putative head of the powerful Gang of Princelings, a reference to the offspring of party elders. Moreover, it was partly due to support rendered by ex-president Jiang, himself a princeling, that Xi was virtually designated Hu's heir-apparent at the 17th Party Congress in 2007. Xi's failure to be inducted into the CMC last month, however, was a signal that he might not enjoy a cosy relationship with his boss.
Instead, Hu is believed to be pulling out all the stops to improve the political fortunes of Youth League stalwarts such as Politburo Standing Committee member and First Vice-Premier Li Keqiang, who at this stage is expected to take over the premiership from Wen Jiabao in early 2013.
Xi watchers are not surprised by his strange demeanor in Berlin. During his tour to Latin America early this year, the vice-president aroused controversy by using earthy language to attack a certain country – widely thought to be the US – for alleged interference in China's domestic affairs. While talking to diplomats and Chinese representatives in China's embassy in Mexico City, Xi intoned: "There are people who seem to have nothing to do after filling their stomachs. They like to point their fingers at China's internal affairs." The vice-president's remarks were not reported by the Chinese media.
In any event, Xi's apparent decision to openly side with Jiang – and his failure to appear deferential to Hu – is a good indication that factional rivalry and jockeying for position has begun some three years before the 18th Party Congress. At that all-important conclave, a new corps of party and state leadership will be picked as at least half of the current PSC and Politburo members are set to retire.
Comments:
it is total funny story, only chinese can understand such game in named of Politics.
# posted by : 2:02 PM
: 2:02 PM
Keep posting on this topic. I really want to read your book and better understand your perspective on factions now. "One Party State" is always a myth, but the particulars of the divisions are fascinating.
谢谢!
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谢谢!
Thursday, October 01, 2009
Reflections on the 60th Anniversary
A Brazilian reporter asked me some questions about the 60th anniversary, here are my answers:
1- What’s the meaning of this celebration in China that starts this Thursday in your opinion? Is it an internal celebration, or the main goal is to impress the world?
Both. Of course, the leaders want to show the world its unity and military might. However, a parade is also a way to monitor the effectiveness and loyalty of military and civilian units.
2- Why the Chinese people is not part of the celebration?
The participants in the parade and even the audience are carefully selected because the government doesn't want any disruption to the celebration. Any sign of protest would be highly embarrassing to the government and its leaders.
3- Generally, the recent history of China is divided in two phases, the socialism under Mao Zedong, and a much more pragmatic era since Deng Xiaoping. Do you think it’s possible to estimate what’s going to be the next phase?
This is difficult to estimate. Some China scholars, including myself, believe there will be a "Latin Americanization" of Chinese politics in which special interests like real estate developers and large state owned enterprises will increasingly drive policy making. If true, this would lead to a period of economic stagnation without any fundamental reform.
4- Will the presence of the State still be so strong in the future of China, or it may be eased in the next years?
The presence of special interest groups will be strong, and they will use state power to drive out competition, both domestic and abroad.
5- What are the main challenges in Chinese future, in your opinion?
Overcoming the influence of special interest groups to enact much needed reform. Because China is such a world player, I think this is important for the world as well. Highly subsidized Chinese firms drive out competitors in the US and Europe, as well as other parts of the world.
A Brazilian reporter asked me some questions about the 60th anniversary, here are my answers:
1- What’s the meaning of this celebration in China that starts this Thursday in your opinion? Is it an internal celebration, or the main goal is to impress the world?
Both. Of course, the leaders want to show the world its unity and military might. However, a parade is also a way to monitor the effectiveness and loyalty of military and civilian units.
2- Why the Chinese people is not part of the celebration?
The participants in the parade and even the audience are carefully selected because the government doesn't want any disruption to the celebration. Any sign of protest would be highly embarrassing to the government and its leaders.
3- Generally, the recent history of China is divided in two phases, the socialism under Mao Zedong, and a much more pragmatic era since Deng Xiaoping. Do you think it’s possible to estimate what’s going to be the next phase?
This is difficult to estimate. Some China scholars, including myself, believe there will be a "Latin Americanization" of Chinese politics in which special interests like real estate developers and large state owned enterprises will increasingly drive policy making. If true, this would lead to a period of economic stagnation without any fundamental reform.
4- Will the presence of the State still be so strong in the future of China, or it may be eased in the next years?
The presence of special interest groups will be strong, and they will use state power to drive out competition, both domestic and abroad.
5- What are the main challenges in Chinese future, in your opinion?
Overcoming the influence of special interest groups to enact much needed reform. Because China is such a world player, I think this is important for the world as well. Highly subsidized Chinese firms drive out competitors in the US and Europe, as well as other parts of the world.
Comments:
a "Latin Americanization"
how does this differ from the Asian Godfathers in hk and SEA
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how does this differ from the Asian Godfathers in hk and SEA
# posted by : 11:19 AM
: 11:19 AM
