Wednesday, February 15, 2006
What if he is really ill, such that he is unable to return to his official capacity? I think then it will be a scramble between Zhou Xiaochuan and Bo Xilai for the VP position. Both are clearly vying for the position anyway for after the 17th PC. Dai Xianglong and Wang Qishan are also dark-horse candidates. The problem with Huang's portfolio is that it involves finance and SOEs, so the position would require someone either with extensive experience in the central bureaucracy or experience governing a major metropolitan area, or ideally both types of experience. In theory, Bo Xilai and Dai Xianglong would make perfect candidates since both have both qualifications, but Dai has relatively weak factional backing. Meanwhile, Zhou is a connected princelings with support from both Jiang's camp and from Wen's mentor Zhu Rongji. Wang Qishan is cursed by the fact that he does a fairly good job running the capital, and the leadership probably does not want to rock the boat before the Olympics.