Elite Chinese Politics and Political Economy

Here in Beijing, rumors are already flying about the 17th Party Congress, which is scheduled to occur next autumn. Among the more interesting rumor, one rumor, which is highly dubious, but interesting, is that some in the party wants to push up the party congress to spring of 2007, instead of the fall. The putative reason is that since there will be elections in both the US and in Taiwan in the fall, China needs an established leadership before that time. Of course, that is just an excuse. If the rumor is true--and there is little reason to think so-- it is probably prompted by the Jiang-Zeng camp to prevent Hu from getting his slate of central committee members. Although party elections are trumped up affairs, they nonetheless require some preparation. By pushing the party congress forward, Hu will have much less time with which to prepare the representatives to the Party Congress to support an entirely pro-Hu slate for the Central Committee. The Jiang-Zeng camp would thus be able to maintain a sizable presence in the CC, and thus the Politburo and the Standing Committee. Of course, this is just speculation on an unconfirmed rumor.

Back on slightly more solid ground, Huang Ju is back on a very light load of work. Since his reappearance in early June, he has attended three events: the CAS ceremony, Hu's speech on the 85th anniversary of the CCP, and a meeting with the foreign advisory panel of the CBRC. I attach a picture of him at the CBRC meeting. He looks better, but still much thinner than before. I think his appearance at the CBRC meeting is very important, since he is showing that even if some of the minor portfolios have been delegated to others, he remains in charge of the finance portfolio. Before the folks at Citibank get too excited, however, he is surely focusing all of his diminished energy on the up-coming 17th Party Congress, where he, Jiang, and Zeng must do all that they can to prevent a complete Hu take-over.