Thursday, August 10, 2006
宋国青 (Song Guoqing-Beida)、林毅夫 (Lin Yifu-Beida)，钱颖一 (Qian Yingyi-- Qinghua, UC Berkeley)、夏斌 (Xia Bin-- DRC)、汪同三 (Wang Tongsa-- CASS)、李扬 (Li Yang--CASS), 巴曙松 (Ba Shusong--DRC), 钟伟 (Zhong Wei--Beishida)
Since Lin, Qian, Wang have no expertise in finance, that leaves one of the others. Although people talk about Li Yang, he served one term on the MPC already, and is unlikely to become the next person. Of the remaining, although Xia Bin, the head of DRC's finance institute seems an obvious choice, I think he has too many connections with the PBOC and might be seen as another PBOC representative on the MPC. Although he does well in the media, Zhong Wei is likely too junior. Now, we are left with Song Guoqing and Ba Shusong, which I think are the two most likely candidates. While Song is a well respected scholar with deep connections with senior members of the administration, Ba is extremely savvy and an effective conveyor of his ideas. As the vice director of the DRC's Finance Institute and an expert in international finance, he likely has been an important voice on the revaluation issue. Thus, I slightly favor Ba's chances at this point.
To give you an example of Ba's savviness, he actually has a blog that charges money to view entries. I should have that! Well, the quality of entries would definitely improve. Think about that my dear readers.......