Monday, September 25, 2006
So now what? The main question of course is whether they will go after Huang Ju or his wife, who by many accounts is deeply involved in siphoning social security funds as the vice chair-woman of the Shanghai Charity Trust. I tend to agree with those who say that the bucks will stop at Chen Liangyu, but then I thought that it would stop at Qin Yu. There was a rumor from a few months ago about the disappearance of Huang Ju having more to do with his wife's corruption problems than with his own illness. Perhaps there is some truth to the matter. Perhaps the bargain between Jiang and Hu was that Huang Ju would stay in the Politburo Standing Committee until next fall while Chen Liangyu is sacrificed. Soon after Huang Ju's return from his "illness," the CDIC began to investigate the Shanghai case. There is some sign that Huang Ju is nervous though. Just two days before Chen's arrest, Huang attended a forum on social security, where he urged speedy building up of the social security system.......
Again, the question becomes who will replace Chen. Currently, Han Zheng is standing in for Chen as acting secretary. This choice is interesting since it suggests that Hu-Wen are comfortable with maintaining a key Shanghai cadre in power instead of rotating in a big fish from somewhere else (as was the case after Chen Xitong was dismissed). However, this might be temporary to calm the fears in the market, which so far is fairly stable. Over time, we will find out who the permanent replacement of Chen is in Shanghai. There is some chance that they have decided to keep Han Zheng, partly because he was known as a rival of Chen Liangyu and partly because Wu Bangguo probably spoke up on his behalf. If they are replacing the party secretary, some possibilities include Wang Zhaoguo, Liu Yandong, Wang Qishan, and Dai Xianglong (okay, very long shot). Beside these veteran figures, Hu might choose to take this opportunity to sneak one of his favorite underlings into the Politburo: Li Keqiang or Li Yuanchao.
2006年09月25日13:07 【字号 大 中 小】【留言】【论坛】【打印】【关闭】