### Sunday, October 28, 2007

Alright, settling of account. Who made the right call on the 17th Party Congress. First of all, I have to say that Willy Lam, former reporter for the South China Morning Post, is 100% right on his prediction days before the congress. Below are predictions by us mortals. The bottom-line: all three of us did not believe that Jia Qinglin would stay another term. Lesson: NEVER HAVE TOO MUCH WISHFUL THINKING WHEN IT COMES TO CHINA.

Me

Hu Jintao (65) 95% correct

Wen Jiabao (65) 94% correct

Li Changchun (63) 92% correct

Wu Bangguo (66) 90% correct

Most Likely to Retire

Luo Gan (73) 5% correct

Huang Ju 0% correct

Jia Qinglin (67) 25% incorrect!

Zeng Qinghong (68) 35% correct

Wu Guanzheng (almost 69) 20% correct

Possible Promotions Into the PSB

Zhou Yongkang (almost 65) 70% correct

Li Keqiang （52）65% correct

Xi Jinping (54) 60% correct

Zhang Dejiang (61) 45% sort of

He Guoqiang (64) 45% sort of

Wang Lequan (62) 35% correct

Wang Zhaoguo (66) 35% correct

Yu Zhengsheng (62) 25% correct

Liu Yunshan (60) 15% correct

Liu Qi (65) 15% correct

Hui Liangyu (63) 15% correct

Wang Gang (65) 5% correct

Politburo

Li Yuanchao correct

Zhang Gaoli (PS of Tianjin) correct

Basically, I missed the Jia Qinglin prediction (too much wishful thinking) and put a bit too much weight on Zhang Dejiang as opposed to He Guoqiang.

Dylan

Hu Jintao correct

Wu Bangguo correct

Wen Jiabao correct

Xi Jinping correct

Li Keqiang correct

Li Changchun correct

Zhou Yongkang correct

Here, (s)he predicted a 7 member PSB, so two predictions were incorrect.

Pierre

Hu Jintao correct

Wen Jiabao correct

Wu Bangguo correct

Zeng Qinghong incorrect!

Xi Jinping correct

Li Keqiang correct

Zhou Yongkang correct

Again, this seven-member scenario did not predict Jia Qinglin or Li Changchun staying.

Me

Hu Jintao (65) 95% correct

Wen Jiabao (65) 94% correct

Li Changchun (63) 92% correct

Wu Bangguo (66) 90% correct

Most Likely to Retire

Luo Gan (73) 5% correct

Huang Ju 0% correct

Jia Qinglin (67) 25% incorrect!

Zeng Qinghong (68) 35% correct

Wu Guanzheng (almost 69) 20% correct

Possible Promotions Into the PSB

Zhou Yongkang (almost 65) 70% correct

Li Keqiang （52）65% correct

Xi Jinping (54) 60% correct

Zhang Dejiang (61) 45% sort of

He Guoqiang (64) 45% sort of

Wang Lequan (62) 35% correct

Wang Zhaoguo (66) 35% correct

Yu Zhengsheng (62) 25% correct

Liu Yunshan (60) 15% correct

Liu Qi (65) 15% correct

Hui Liangyu (63) 15% correct

Wang Gang (65) 5% correct

Politburo

Li Yuanchao correct

Zhang Gaoli (PS of Tianjin) correct

Basically, I missed the Jia Qinglin prediction (too much wishful thinking) and put a bit too much weight on Zhang Dejiang as opposed to He Guoqiang.

Dylan

Hu Jintao correct

Wu Bangguo correct

Wen Jiabao correct

Xi Jinping correct

Li Keqiang correct

Li Changchun correct

Zhou Yongkang correct

Here, (s)he predicted a 7 member PSB, so two predictions were incorrect.

Pierre

Hu Jintao correct

Wen Jiabao correct

Wu Bangguo correct

Zeng Qinghong incorrect!

Xi Jinping correct

Li Keqiang correct

Zhou Yongkang correct

Again, this seven-member scenario did not predict Jia Qinglin or Li Changchun staying.

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