Sunday, October 28, 2007

Alright, settling of account. Who made the right call on the 17th Party Congress. First of all, I have to say that Willy Lam, former reporter for the South China Morning Post, is 100% right on his prediction days before the congress. Below are predictions by us mortals. The bottom-line: all three of us did not believe that Jia Qinglin would stay another term. Lesson: NEVER HAVE TOO MUCH WISHFUL THINKING WHEN IT COMES TO CHINA.

Hu Jintao (65) 95% correct
Wen Jiabao (65) 94% correct
Li Changchun (63) 92% correct
Wu Bangguo (66) 90% correct

Most Likely to Retire
Luo Gan (73) 5% correct
Huang Ju 0% correct
Jia Qinglin (67) 25% incorrect!
Zeng Qinghong (68) 35% correct
Wu Guanzheng (almost 69) 20% correct

Possible Promotions Into the PSB
Zhou Yongkang (almost 65) 70% correct
Li Keqiang (52)65% correct
Xi Jinping (54) 60% correct
Zhang Dejiang (61) 45% sort of
He Guoqiang (64) 45% sort of
Wang Lequan (62) 35% correct
Wang Zhaoguo (66) 35% correct
Yu Zhengsheng (62) 25% correct
Liu Yunshan (60) 15% correct
Liu Qi (65) 15% correct
Hui Liangyu (63) 15% correct
Wang Gang (65) 5% correct
Li Yuanchao correct
Zhang Gaoli (PS of Tianjin) correct

Basically, I missed the Jia Qinglin prediction (too much wishful thinking) and put a bit too much weight on Zhang Dejiang as opposed to He Guoqiang.

Hu Jintao correct
Wu Bangguo correct
Wen Jiabao correct
Xi Jinping correct
Li Keqiang correct
Li Changchun correct
Zhou Yongkang correct

Here, (s)he predicted a 7 member PSB, so two predictions were incorrect.

Hu Jintao correct
Wen Jiabao correct
Wu Bangguo correct
Zeng Qinghong incorrect!
Xi Jinping correct
Li Keqiang correct
Zhou Yongkang correct

Again, this seven-member scenario did not predict Jia Qinglin or Li Changchun staying.

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