Elite Chinese Politics and Political Economy

A colleague alerted me of an interesting article on Xi Jinping "inspecting" Olympic sites. Wen Jiabao has obviously gained a lot of popularity because of the earthquake, and his able assistant Li Keqiang also rubbed off some glory chairing various "emergency meetings." Xi Jinping is apparently fighting back by emphasizing the need to "grasp with two hands" to handle both earthquake relief and preparation for the Olympics. Xi Jinping of course is in charge of the Olympics. Last fall, when he first came to power, that portfolio probably looked very good. But now, all the glory is in disaster relief. Unfortunately for Xi Jinping, all the attention is on the earthquake, and will continue to stay on it for months to come.

习近平：做到支援抗震救灾同奥运筹办工作两手抓
2008年05月28日07:31 来源：人民网－《人民日报》

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　　习近平在考察北京奥运场馆时强调

　　以实际行动贯彻中央政治局会议精神　做到支援抗震救灾同奥运筹办工作两手抓


　　中共中央政治局常委、国家副主席习近平，今天下午到北京市五棵松篮球馆、北京射击馆、北京大学体育馆等奥运场馆，实地考察北京奥运会、残奥会筹办工作情况，强调要以实际行动贯彻落实５月２６日召开的中央政治局会议精神，坚持一手抓抗震救灾工作、一手抓奥运筹办工作，真正把北京奥运会、残奥会最后阶段的各项筹办工作落到实处。

　　下午２时许，习近平在中共中央政治局委员、北京市委书记刘淇，中共中央政治局委员、国务委员刘延东，中共中央书记处书记、中央办公厅主任令计划，国家体育总局局长刘鹏，北京市市长郭金龙等陪同下，先后考察了三所体育场馆的建设、运行和管理情况。在考察过程中，习近平热情勉励各场馆运行团队工作人员和场馆志愿者，要进一步提高业务素质、管理能力和服务水平，并殷切期望正在场馆中抓紧训练的体育健儿刻苦训练、科学训练，争取在奥运会上取得好成绩。

　　考察奥运场馆后，习近平一行来到北京奥运大厦，亲切看望奥组委中外工作人员，并听取了北京奥组委关于场馆建设与管理情况的汇报。习近平对北京奥运场馆的建设、运行和管理工作给予高度评价。他说，办好奥运会、残奥会，场馆建设是基础，场馆运行是关键，场馆管理是根本。他指出，北京奥运场馆建设坚持高起点、高标准，追求高水平、高质量，体现了“绿色奥运、科技奥运、人文奥运”理念，体现了精心设计、精心组织、精心施工，体现了我国工程技术人员和工程建设者的智慧和创造，并成功破解了许多技术难题，取得了多项自主创新成果，谱写了中国和世界奥运建筑史上的光辉篇章。他还指出，北京各奥运场馆都顺利通过了“好运北京”各项体育赛事的测试检验，有效地锻炼了场馆运行团队，提升了管理素质和管理水平，为举办一届有特色、高水平的奥运会打下了良好的组织基础和管理基础。

　　习近平指出，奥运场馆是赛事运行和服务工作的主体，是联系国际体育组织的纽带。他要求北京奥组委和各奥运场馆抓紧奥运筹办阶段最后７０多天的宝贵时间，以精益求精精神，进一步做好检验和检测工作。要更加注重各奥运竞赛场馆的功能完善和设施配套，更加注重提高各奥运场馆团队的管理能力和服务水平，更加注重对场馆比赛的周密安排和文明引导，确保各奥运场馆在赛事运行中安全顺畅、万无一失。

　　习近平强调，世界人民普遍关注、全国人民期盼已久的北京奥运会、残奥会筹办工作已到了最后关键阶段。我们既要坚持抓好支援抗震救灾工作，又要坚持抓好奥运筹办工作，切实把人民群众在抗震救灾中迸发的万众一心、众志成城、重建家园的坚强决心，化作为进一步激发全国人民迎接奥运、支持奥运、奉献奥运的精神动力。真正做到支援抗震救灾工作同奥运筹办工作两手抓、两不误、两促进。（记者王镜宇）

Dear Readers, my colleagues Andy Mertha, Bill Hurst, Allen Carlson and I drafted this open letter urging all to help out with the Wenchuan disaster in their own way. The political analysis will continue, but in the mean time, we should do what we can to help:

Since May 12, the catastrophic Wenchuan earthquake in China’s Sichuan province has gripped the world’s attention. As political scientists who study China, this monumental tragedy hits us close to home. Some of us have lived and worked in communities devastated by this disaster. Friends and colleagues have offered firsthand accounts of loved ones left dead, trapped, injured or homeless, many of them children attending school at the time of the quake.

In the weeks to come, there will be much discussion of how prepared China was for such a calamity, the effectiveness of Beijing’s response, and whether China’s leaders manipulated media coverage to underscore their ability to govern. As analysts of Chinese politics, we will be obliged to examine these aspects of the earthquake’s aftermath.

Now is not the time for such criticism or debate, however.

As thousands remain buried in rubble across northern Sichuan and survivors struggle desperately to come to terms with their overwhelming losses, we must remain focused on doing whatever possible to assist those who endured this tragedy.

We thus write to express our deep sympathy for those who have perished in Sichuan and the surrounding regions. We salute the heroism of those who have worked bravely to rescue victims trapped by debris and alleviate the suffering of the living. Such acts transcend politics and are beyond our collective professional expertise. They humble us as manifestations of the utmost humanity, and should be celebrated as such.

In this light we request you donate to the China Relief Fund established by the American Red Cross (www.redcross.org) or any other legitimate charity now sending relief to the region. We thank you for your support.

Sincerely,

William Hurst (University of Texas at Austin)
Andrew Mertha (Washington University in St. Louis)
Allen Carlson (Cornell University)
Victor Shih (Northwestern University)

Amid the tragedy in Sichuan, some politics is emerging. I have no doubt that Premier Wen really wanted to go to Sichuan to direct front-line rescue effort. In the mean time, who is running the State Council bureaucracy in Beijing? Hu follower Vice Premier Li Keqiang. Everyone gets what they want. Wen gets to save the victims. Li gets to play Premier. Hu gets to showcase his loyal follower. If Li does a decent job, his popularity will shoot up, and perhaps even put him back in the running for the top job. Where is Xi Jinping in all of this? I think he had better put himself in the limelight somehow. This is a major disaster, and the people will give major credit to those playing an apparent part in the rescue effort.



李克强要求切实做好救援保障工作
2008年05月15日 01:20:23 　来源：新华网
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2008年5月14日，李克强主持召开会议进一步部署抗震救灾保障工作。为贯彻落实中共中央政治局常委会议和胡锦涛总书记、温家宝总理重要指示精神，中共中央政治局常委、国务院副总理、抗震救灾总指挥部副总指挥李克强几天来连续主持召开会议，研究部署抗震救灾保障工作。中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理、抗震救灾总指挥部副总指挥回良玉参加了5月14日的会议。 新华社记者刘卫兵摄

2008年5月14日，李克强主持召开会议进一步部署抗震救灾保障工作。为贯彻落实中共中央政治局常委会议和胡锦涛总书记、温家宝总理重要指示精神，中共中央政治局常委、国务院副总理、抗震救灾总指挥部副总指挥李克强几天来连续主持召开会议，研究部署抗震救灾保障工作。中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理、抗震救灾总指挥部副总指挥回良玉参加了5月14日的会议。 新华社记者刘卫兵摄

新华网北京５月１４日电 为贯彻落实中共中央政治局常委会和抗震救灾指挥部会议精神，中共中央政治局常委、国务院副总理、抗震救灾总指挥部副总指挥李克强多次主持召开会议，研究部署和协调救援保障工作。李克强强调，要加大工作力度，把抗震救灾作为当前的首要任务，全力以赴，周密安排，保障营救受困受灾人员，保障灾区人民群众基本生活，尽最大努力把地震灾害造成的损失减少到最低程度。

中共中央政治局委员、国务院副总理、抗震救灾总指挥部副总指挥回良玉参加了5月14日的会议并讲话。

四川汶川7.8级地震发生后，党中央、国务院高度重视，胡锦涛总书记立即作出重要指示，温家宝总理赶赴灾区现场指挥抗震救灾工作。李克强主持召开有43个部门负责人参加的会议，传达中央精神，研究部署抗震救灾保障工作，要求各有关部门立即启动地震灾害应急预案。国务院办公厅建立了及时会商、每日协调的应急机制。解放军总参谋部、民政部、地震局、卫生部、中央宣传部、工业和信息化部、发展改革委、公安部等指挥部成员单位和有关部门启动了一级应急响应。保障工作紧张有序地开展，有效地支持了前方救援行动。

李克强强调，灾情就是命令，时间就是生命。有关部门和地区要贯彻落实胡锦涛总书记一系列重要指示和温家宝总理主持召开的抗震救灾指挥部会议精神，紧急行动起来，坚持一切为了灾区、一切服务灾区，急群众之所急、办群众之所需、解群众之所难，各负其责，恪尽职守，全力提供抢险救援所需人力、财力、物力，努力做好抗震救灾各项保障工作，切实维护灾区正常生产生活秩序。

李克强指出，保障灾区救援和生活用品是当前抗震救灾的急迫需要。人民解放军、武警部队、民兵预备役、公安干警、医疗卫生人员和地震救援队伍已经赶赴灾区。我们要紧密配合前方行动，想方设法筹集抢险救援装备和工具，紧急调集医疗器械和药品，千方百计满足前方搜救和医疗紧急需要，尽最大可能营救被困人员，尽最大努力挽救受灾群众生命。同时，要全力以赴保障灾区人民基本生活，加大瓶装水、方便食品、帐篷、防寒衣被等生活必需品调运力度，确保受灾群众有饭吃、有衣穿、有干净水喝、有临时住所。

李克强说，抢修因灾受损设施和设备是抗震救灾的紧迫要求。要进一步采取行之有效的应急措施，最大限度提供保障，以尽快解决灾区以及救援人员通信问题；加快修复受损交通设施，确保公路、铁路、民航等运输通道畅通；抓紧抢修电力受损设备，保障灾区用电和电网安全运行；组织修复供水设施，保证灾区正常供水，为抗震救灾和生产生活提供有力的基础设施支撑。

李克强指出，严防发生次生灾害是抗震救灾的重要任务。必须进一步调集必要的技术力量和设备，加强地震监测和气象预报，密切监视震情发展，准确分析气象条件。要突出抓好水库安全运行，加强饮用水质监测和危险化学品污染防治，特别是要加大地质灾害监测力度，搞好群防群测、科学防治，减少泥石流、滑坡等灾害损失，维护人民群众生命财产安全。

李克强还指出，要统筹安排好其他地区经济工作，保障市场商品供应和物价稳定，维护生产生活秩序，保持经济平稳快速发展和社会稳定。他要求，各部门各地区要按照统一部署，围绕一线工作，齐心协力，密切配合，加强信息沟通，强化值班制度，完善应急预案，及时研究、解决和报告问题，把抗震救灾各项保障工作进一步落到实处。

Dear readers, I recently began writing for Nouriel Roubini's RGE Monitor Asia blog. The first piece is on the effect of inflation on real estate prices. It is not going to be pretty, and I look forward to any comments on this either here or on the RGE blog.


Inflation equals monetary tightening equals asset deflation
Victor Shih | May 14, 2008

The rumors were correct. April inflation came in at 8.5%, showing no sign of slowing from the 8% range first reached in February. This will not allow the People's Bank of China (PBOC) to relax monetary policies. In fact, we can expect further increases in reserve requirements and quite possibly an interest rate increase before the end of the first half. As soon as the inflation rate was announced, the PBOC announced a 50 bp increase in reserve requirement, bumping it to 16.5%. This means unfavorable conditions will continue for both the equity and real estate markets. The continuation of monetary tightening may create a world of trouble for real estate investors in particular.

First, let's look at the inflation. Most of it still comes from food inflation, which grew by 22.1% YoY. The problem continues to be that once pork prices shot into the stratosphere, other food categories became very vulnerable to even small shocks because substitution puts high pressure on the prices of all foods. The latest fire to watch for is of course grain prices, which grew 7.4% YoY. The increase in grain prices is likely under-counted because of administrative control over grain prices. Non-food inflation remains relatively low at 1.8%. In fact, official figures show a decline in clothing prices in April. I am totally unconvinced of the official figures in this regard, however. A significant part of wage in many work places in China is food provided by the company cafeteria. As the prices of all food categories increase, the in-kind nominal wage of workers is increasing. Even if cash wage does not increase (big if), companies may soon find it necessary to increase product prices to reflect increasing wage costs. Of course, rising energy prices do not help (7% YoY even with price control).

The bottom line is that the food inflation will soon leak into non-food inflation in the official figures, which will sustain inflation momentum into the second half. I don't have a fancy model to predict the precise level, but this game of adjusting annual inflation estimate upward slightly every month because of the "surprising" inflation of that month is getting tiresome. I think major banks, the IMF, and the World Bank should just admit that annual inflation in China will be above 5% and will likely be closer to 7-8%.

Since late last years when inflation emerged as a problem, top policy makers have engaged in a latent debate on whether monetary tightening was a cure of inflation. Premier Wen Jiabao and a group of technocrats who fought the mid 90s war against inflation initially carried the day in the November (2007) Politburo meeting, which announced that inflation was threat number one for the regime. Soon after, we saw a series of increases in reserve requirements, an interest rate increase, and --perhaps most important-- credit ceiling on bank lending and a 30% down payment requirement for second mortgages. We know, however, that there is an opposing voice at the top of the regime. Princeling officials (princelings are children of high officials) with heavy ties to the real estate sector likely form the backbone of the opposing voice. The opposition has formulated an argument stating that inflation is caused by the "structural" problem of an artificially low RMB, which led to the monetary problem. At the March National People's Congress meeting, the opposition came out in the open to criticize continual monetary tightening. Li Yining, a Hayekian economist with ties with the real estate sector, articulated this argument in public. Nonetheless, as my book Factions and Finance in China shows, monetary conservatives--the central technocrats-- gained the upper hand whenever inflation rates were high.

To be sure, 8% is far from the record inflation in the past 30 years (around 30% was the record), but we certainly have not seen quarterly inflation at 8% since the mid-90s. The sustained inflation pressure will give Premier Wen the political leverage with which to continue tight monetary policy. His newly appointed helper, Vice Premier Wang Qishan, is a veteran inflation fighter first promoted by former economic czar Premier Zhu Rongji. At a recent speech given in Shanghai, he made it very clear that he will make fighting inflation a top priority and that fixed asset investment needed to be brought down to "a reasonable level." As long as inflation rates remain at a high level, I do not expect the technocrats to relax their grip on money supply.

The increasingly tight monetary policy coincided with a major correction of the Chinese stock market. I am no expert on this matter, and I leave to Michael Pettis to comment further on whether monetary tightening will continue to exert downward pressure on stock prices. It seems a reasonable conclusion, especially given that price controls are imposing heavy costs on oil, food, and even retail businesses. After the down payment requirement was imposed late last year, the real estate market in China experienced an instant cooling down. By February, month-on-month increases of average housing prices were basically flat in most of China's major cities. The March figures were literally 0s in many of China's major cities and negative in a few cases.

Shenzhen Today, China Tomorrow

We now get to the bottomline--real estate prices will likely get hit substantially in this environment, causing a major decrease in household equity, a substantial rise in non-performing loans, and sluggish real estate market in the medium term. Although official figures from March show declines in only a handful of markets, I would argue that official figures compiled by the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) are not reliable and that we will soon see widespread declines in many major markets. On the reliability issue, we focus on Shenzhen, the first major market to show a sizable decline. The NDRC reported a month-on-month decline of 4.9% for new housing in Shenzhen in March. Soon afterward, the housing authorities in Shenzhen reported a 16.53% monthly decrease for new residential housing in Shenzhen. THE NDRC UNDER-REPORTED THE DECLINE OF SHENZHEN HOUSING PRICES BY THREE FOLD! Of course, even the official figure from Shenzhen under-reports the true magnitude of the problem. The press is filled with stories of last-minute discounts, free renovation, free cars, which sum up to a 20+% price fall in Shenzhen residential real estate. Things are about to get worse in Shenzhen because 1 million sq mtr of new residential came on the market in the first quarter, adding to the 5 million sq mtr in stock left over from 2007. April figures from the Shenzhen housing authorities show a decline of ANOTHER 12% for new residential housing, bring prices back to the level exactly one year ago. In the absence of systematic data, the press is reporting stories of highly leveraged investors beginning to resort to the desperate tactic of borrowing from "underground banks" at 5% a month to make payments. Of course, this is unsustainable unless a miraculous recovery of housing prices occur, and inflation makes this more and more remote for 2008.

Will this disastrous pattern be repeated elsewhere in China? The answer is yes with a high probability. The official figures show impressive run-ups of real estate prices in both east coast markets like Beijing, Hangzhou, Ningbo, and Haikou and inland markets like Nanning, Xi'an, Lanzhou, and Urumqi in 2007. These spectacular increases have no doubt attracted leveraged speculators as well as enthusiastic local officials who approved swathes of new projects last year, which will be completed this year. Unfortunately, the housing authorities elsewhere are not nearly as enlightened as those of Shenzhen, so we have no local figures with which to compare with the suspicious NDRC figures. If substantial declines occur in other markets, we will see widespread defaults among both individual investors and developers going into the fourth quarter of this year. At the end of 2007, loans outstanding to developers and buyers combined 4.8 trillion RMB (700 billion USD at current exchange rate). Even 10% of those loans getting into trouble would generate half a trillion RMB of non-performing loans. Although this would not cause a financial panic, it certainly would cause investors to take a much closer look at Chinese banks. Furthermore, expensive write-offs from the CIC may once again be necessary. Finally, this decline of real estate prices, unlike previous such events, will be the first one experienced by a large number of Chinese households. This lesson will (hopefully) instill caution among Chinese real estate investors.

The death toll is now over 12,000, but the first contingent of PLA troops numbering 200 or so finally reached Wenchuan. More are to follow later tonight. Reader dylan provided the following useful information:

[Xinhua domestic reports that the emergency PBSC meeting of evening 12 May decided to "set up a quake and disaster relief work headquarters with Comrade Wen Jiabao as the head and Comrades Li Keqiang and Hui Liangyu as the deputy heads to take full charge of the current quake and disaster relief work."]

As expected, some kind of PSC level leading group has been set up, led by Wen himself, but also including Li Keqiang, Hui Liangyu (he is the VP normally in charge of disaster relief, but obviously, it's a bit over his head). I think it probably also includes Ma Kai, Meng Jianzhu, and most likely Minister of Finance Xie Xuren.

Sadly, the death toll looks like it is going to be quite horrendous. Tens of thousands of people are still trapped under rubble, and we still have little idea of what happened in Wenchuan itself. The affected areas will need food and medical shipments from the rest of China for months to come. This will not help inflation.

More ominously, anger is spreading, as seen in the excellent WSJ article: "At least nine schools fell across the quake zone, trapping thousands of children in gruesome scenes that were repeated time and again. There was rising anger at authorities over the loss of so many young people, expressed both on the ground and on the Internet."

Wall Street Journal

China Earthquake Exposes
A Widening Wealth Gap
By LORETTA CHAO and JASON LEOW in Pengzhou, China, JAMES T. AREDDY in Shanghai and GORDON FAIRCLOUGH in Shifang, China
May 14, 2008

With the death toll from China's earthquake mounting, the disaster is throwing a harsh spotlight on the widening gap between the nation's rich and poor.

As soldiers and paramilitary police rush to dig victims out from collapsed schools, homes and hospitals, it is clear that the quake inflicted its greatest destruction on rural areas. These include small but fast-growing towns that have mushroomed from the farm fields in recent years as part of China's rapid urbanization.
[Image]
China Photos/Getty Images
Soldiers of the People's Liberation Army block entry to the site of a collapsed primary school, where hundreds of students are trapped.

Such areas have far less stringent building-safety practices than China's relatively wealthy big cities, construction experts say. As a result, some citizens were more vulnerable than others when disaster struck. Rescue and relief workers struggled Tuesday to reach victims in remote areas most damaged by the magnitude-7.9 quake in the southwestern province of Sichuan. Deaths in Sichuan alone had exceeded 12,000 as of Tuesday evening, with more than 26,000 injured and at least 9,400 buried in debris, the state-run Xinhua news agency said, quoting a senior provincial official.

On the outskirts of the small city of Shifang, east of the epicenter, Fang Haiying, a 40-year-old rice farmer, said more than 10 members of her village remained buried in rubble of their houses. She and her extended family were wearing surgical masks to protect themselves from a chemical leak at a damaged ammonia plant a few kilometers away. "We've been waiting but no one from the government has come. We have nothing to eat," she said.

Nearly every house in Yinhua village on Shifang's western edge was destroyed. Boulders loosed by Monday's quake, some as big as vans, littered the main road in the area, along with the vehicles they knocked over or crushed.

Survivors of the chaos walked down the narrow mountain roads to Yinhua in search of transportation out of the quake-stricken area. Two 15-year-old boys said they had walked three hours from their village in the mountains to get to Yinhua. The pair, Chen Shi and Zheng Jia, said their middle school, like so many others, had collapsed within seconds. About 100 of their schoolmates died, they said.
Tens of thousands are still missing as the rescue effort continues in China following the country's worst earthquake in three decades. Officials warn that more aftershocks and mudslides could add to the toll. Video courtesy of Reuters.

Roughly 90 kilometers away, the disparity of damage was striking. The glitzy new office towers and hotels of Chengdu, Sichuan's bustling capital of nearly 10 million people, were still standing and largely intact. The city suffered relatively little in Monday's quake, despite its proximity to the epicenter.

Natural disasters often wreak their worst havoc on the disadvantaged, people who tend to live in subpar housing. This was the case with Hurricane Katrina in the U.S.

Now, the issue is especially thorny for China's government: President Hu Jintao and Premier Wen Jiabao have based much of the public legitimacy of their administration on trying to address a widening wealth gap resulting from decades of capitalist reforms. Part of their overall plan, for example, has called for improving rural health care and education.

China's booming economy has lifted the financial fortunes of most of its citizens, but some have gained far more than others. Economists say the country, still nominally socialist, is now among the most unequal major economies in the world. Much of this imbalance is seen in the contrast between residents of the big, wealthy cities, and those of small, poorer towns and rural areas.
[Mother]1
AFP/Getty Images
A mother mourned as Chinese soldiers carried the body of her child, killed when his school collapsed in Dujiangyan.

Incomes in rural areas, for example, averaged 4,140 yuan per person last year, or about $590 at current exchange rates. That represents an increase of 91% from a decade earlier, not adjusted for inflation. Urban disposable incomes, by comparison, rose by 150% during the same period, to an average of 13,786 yuan last year.

Mr. Wen, who flew to the disaster zone within hours of the quake, spent Tuesday touring affected areas and reassuring the public that Beijing would help those most affected. "We will try our best to send milk powder to parents and ensure that children do not go hungry," Mr. Wen told victims after learning of shortages of food, drinking water and tents, the Xinhua agency reported.

On the Ground

On the ground, authorities scrambled to rescue survivors. China's defense ministry said that as of Tuesday afternoon, nearly 20,000 soldiers and paramilitary police had arrived in quake-hit areas, with an additional 30,000 en route in planes, trains and trucks, or on foot. Repeated aftershocks complicated efforts and prompted thousands to seek refuge outside in makeshift tents scattered across the region.
[See an Interactive Graphic]2
See details on the earthquake's impact nationwide, and see how the aftershocks took place.

The epicenter of the quake, Wenchuan County, has remained largely cut off from help. Because of bad weather, officials scrapped plans to fly relief supplies in by helicopter, then canceled a second plan to send in rescuers by parachute. Finally, about 1,300 military doctors and soldiers reached Wenchuan by foot -- nearly 24 hours after the quake struck.

China's building code has long required that new structures be able to withstand earthquakes, according to Huang Shimin, an earthquake engineering expert at the China Academy of Building Research in Beijing. But standards from region to region remain inconsistent. Throughout Sichuan, the specification is grade 7 on scale of up to ten. The same level applies in Shanghai. But in Beijing, the standard requirement is a grade of 8 -- reflecting the capital's close proximity to the epicenter of a 1976 earthquake that killed at least 240,000.

Uncertain Issues

"Based on China's codes for earthquake-resistance in building designs, if there is no problem in specific design and construction, China's capability to resist the earthquake should be strong," said Mr. Huang. "But there are many uncertain issues related to the earthquake, so it's still a complicated issue."

Architects said the quake's discrimination could be partly attributable to the variation of tremors from one area to the next. But they also cited widespread differences in construction materials and technical skills between wealthy Chengdu and the poorer towns around it, as well as often patchy enforcement of building codes.

"There are a lot of holes," said a Shanghai-based architect who often works in Sichuan province.
[Map of plates]

Adding to the pressure is that thousands of little-known cities are literally sprouting up from pastureland in China. China's urbanization push is bringing up to 15 million people into cities annually. All of them need shelter, often as cheaply and quickly as possible.

The trend has helped make the world's most populous country the world's largest construction zone. China built about 1.80 billion square meters, or more than 19 billion square feet, of property in 2006. At the time, another 4.10 billion square meters was also under construction, according to government statistics.

Such rapid urbanization is transforming Sichuan, one of China's biggest provinces with a population of about 82 million -- roughly equal to that of Germany. The mountainous province ranked fifth out of China's provinces for the amount of floor space it laid down in 2006, almost twice as much property as completed in Beijing.

In hastily built towns around Pengzhou, about 60 kilometers southeast of the epicenter area, local people acknowledged the construction of their now- destroyed homes was shoddy, with little consideration given to safety. The government's oversight of building regulations has tended to be scant.

Liao Xiaoling said her brother in law was thrown from an upstairs window and her 86-year-old father crushed under a wall when the brick structure that was both their home and business toppled. "Our home is gone," she said.

Besides its collapsed schools, two hospitals also suffered damage in Sichuan. Some experts say public funds often accumulate more slowly than new residents in fast-developing areas, and are often diverted to other uses, such as building lavish local government offices.

Government officials warned against drawing the conclusion that particular kinds of buildings were more vulnerable than others. Li Bingren, the spokesman at China's Ministry of Construction, said buildings in the disaster area were built to code, but the quake and its aftershocks were "stronger and higher than the designed resistance level." Schools, he said, tend to have larger rooms and be bigger than ordinary buildings, exacerbating the toll when they fail.

In Beichuan County, about 160 kilometers from the epicenter, nearly 1,000 paramilitary police were searching frantically Tuesday for survivors in a school that collapsed, burying at least 1,000 students and teachers. The Beichuan Middle School's main building, formerly seven stories tall, had been reduced to a pile of rubble about two meters high, the official Xinhua news agency said. One teenage victim was pulled out with no legs, Xinhua said. Authorities have estimated the death toll could reach more than 3,000.

At least nine schools fell across the quake zone, trapping thousands of children in gruesome scenes that were repeated time and again. There was rising anger at authorities over the loss of so many young people, expressed both on the ground and on the Internet.

At the People's Hospital in Pengzhou, nurses estimated they had treated at least a thousand injured people. A lack of electricity prompted hospital officials to evacuate patients outside into blue tents in the hospital's parking lot and backyard.

'It's All Gone'

The hospital was starting to run out of water Tuesday afternoon. Many patients were frantic because they had been separated from their families and were unable to reach them because of downed phone networks. Some were told to go home, but said they had no homes to return to.

Zhou Yan, a 26-year-old farmer, was in a tent recovering from a head injury she sustained after bricks from the second floor of her home fell on her. Doctors said she was free to go but there was no way for her to get home. "I have no home to go back to. It's all gone," she said.

Ms. Zhou's husband is a migrant worker who makes furniture in Shenyang. He managed to get in touch with her, but no buses were available for him to take home. She said she believes the parents of her niece, who was staying with her when the quake hit, are dead.

Ms. Zhou said her house, built over 10 years ago, was brick, which is common in this area. The couple never thought to build it to withstand earthquakes, especially of this magnitude. She estimated it will cost at least 100,000 yuan to rebuild it, money she said will be "impossible" to save. "There's just no way. I don't know what to do next, or who to ask."


抗震救灾：5万官兵出动 230余名先遣队已抵达震中
近5万官兵出动，其中2万多人已抵现场展开救援 230余名先遣队官兵已抵达汶川县城和震中映秀镇

2008年05月14日05:52 来源：人民网－《人民日报》
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　　新华社北京５月１３日电 （记者贾永、曹智）全军和武警部队坚决响应党中央、中央军委和胡锦涛主席号召，全力以赴投入抗震救灾。截至１３日１７时，已紧急出动兵力近５万人奔赴灾区，其中２万多名官兵已抵达救灾现场，展开救灾行动。

　　四川汶川发生７.８级地震后，胡锦涛主席要求灾区驻军和武警部队迅速组织出动，协助地方抗震救灾，保证灾区人民生命安全。在１２日晚中共中央政治局常务委员会召开的会议上，他又要求立即组织人民解放军和武警部队、民兵预备役人员和医疗卫生人员，尽快赶赴灾区，全力抢救受伤人员。军委领导就贯彻落实胡锦涛主席指示，做好抗震救灾工作提出明确要求。

　　视灾情为命令，视时间为生命。军队迅速启动应急预案，总参谋部下达开展抗震救灾工作的紧急指示，在组织灾区驻军全力投入抗震救灾的同时，在全军范围内紧急调集兵力支援灾区。总政治部启动应急机制展开工作，派出精干工作组到一线了解情况，发出抗震救灾工作中的政治工作指示，要求各部队大力弘扬我军听党指挥、服务人民、英勇善战的优良传统，在抗震救灾中发挥突击队作用。总后勤部火速调集帐篷、食品、药品等大批救灾物资，组织几十支医疗队开赴灾区。总装备部为救灾部队配备了各种救灾器材，源源不断地运往灾区。

　　全军和武警部队迅速行动，不怕困难、迎难而上。成都军区驻渝某集团军４８４０名官兵抵达安县、都江堰和绵竹灾区后，迅即展开救灾行动。海军、武警部队等单位的１２支医疗防疫队立即投身医疗救护。驻滇某集团军２８２４人，１３日凌晨开始从驻地向灾区机动。济南军区１.８万余名官兵通过空运、铁路输送和摩托化开进等方式，千里驰援灾区。就近支援灾区的武警部队６０００名官兵陆续赶往灾区，驻灾区的１２００名武警官兵已展开救援。空军部队星夜起航，出动伊尔―７６、波音７３７等运输机３９架次，紧急运送６５００名官兵赶赴灾区。携带专业救援装备的北京军区某工兵团１５３名地震救援人员已抵达都江堰灾区。

　　中央军委要求全军和武警部队急灾区人民所急，想灾区人民所想，以雷厉风行、敢打硬仗、不怕疲劳的作风投身抗震救灾，不惜一切代价确保人民群众生命财产安全。各级党组织要发挥核心领导作用，党员要发挥先锋模范作用，团结和带领部队官兵，以坚定的信心、坚决的行动，完成艰巨的任务，不辜负党和人民的期望。

　　据新华社成都５月１４日电武警驻川某师先遣队２００名官兵于１３日２３时１５分到达汶川县城，并迅速展开救援活动。据介绍，后续的４７０名官兵预计将在１４日天亮后到达。此前，１３日下午，成都军区某集团军３０余人组成的先遣队，冒雨徒步进入了震中汶川县映秀镇，并展开救援行动，目前已救出３００名伤员。

　　
连夜部署，连夜行动


　　中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理、国务院抗震救灾指挥部总指挥温家宝13日晚20时30分在列车上召开国务院抗震救灾指挥部会议，强调当前抗震救灾的核心任务仍然是救人。

　　在谈到救援人员仍然没有抵达汶川等个别重灾区的原因时，温家宝强调，这次特大地震灾害造成有些地方多处山体滑坡，导致公路多处中断；山体移位，近距离相靠，给抢修公路造成极大困难，尽管各方面投入了很大的人力物力和机械，但由于受工作面狭窄的影响，抢修作业无法全面展开，温家宝再次强调，尽管困难很大，也要想尽一切办法，连夜抢修，尽快打通通往震中地区的公路。同时，参与抢险救灾的部队和武警官兵、公安干警要通过各种不同途径，采取空运、水路、步行、翻山等多种方式尽早进入汶川等重灾区。

　　温家宝要求会后各个工作组要立刻落实会议要求，连夜部署，连夜行动

　　武警200人强行军21小时成为入汶川县城首支部队

　　5月13日时23时15分，武警某部参谋长王毅率200人强行军90公里，步行21小时先期进入汶川县城，并立即在县城展开救援工作，第二梯队470名兵力也正紧急行进，预计天亮前后到达。官兵们沿途看到，数十台汽车被埋，房屋成片倒塌。汶川县城地方领导介绍，城内500余人死亡，乡村伤亡情况尚不明确。

　　这支部队目前在汶川县城没有看到其他救援部队，估计是首支到达县城的部队，他们的到来让当地群众战胜灾害的信心大增。

　　后续武警部队470人预计天亮后到达汶川县城

　　武警某师先遣队200人于13日23时15分到达汶川县城后，立即开救援，后续部队470人预计14日天亮后到达。

　　武警驻川某师到达汶川县城 另有多支部队正在途中

　　武警驻川某师200人由理县强行军90公里，于13日23时15分到达汶川县城，迅速在汶川县城和龙溪乡展开救援活动。据师参谋长王毅介绍，这个师后续的470名官兵预计将在14日天亮后到达。

　　四川发生7.8级地震后，解放军和武警部队参加救援的官兵从理县、茂县、都江堰等方向想方设法挺进汶川。13日下午，成都军区某集团军许勇军长带领由 30余人组成的先遣队，冒雨徒步进入震中汶川县映秀镇。抵达现场后，他们立即展开救援行动，目前已救出300名伤员。四川省军区副司令员李亚洲带领一支小分队，冒雨徒步行军32公里后抵达四川理县。目前，他们正在向汶川行进途中。此外，一支由700名官兵组成的队伍也从四川茂县，冒着余震频频、山体滑坡的危险，向汶川挺进。来自济南军区某部的300官兵将在14早晨从都江堰出发，徒步踏上挺进汶川地震灾区的行程。

　　中国军队调集重兵突击驰援地震灾区

　　四川汶川12日下午发生里氏7.8级大地震后，中国人民解放军和武警部队紧急投入抗震救灾行动。截至13日17时，已紧急出动兵力近5万人奔赴灾区，其中2万多人已抵达救灾现场，迅速展开救灾行动。

　　中国国防部新闻发言人13日下午说，四川汶川地震后，胡锦涛主席要求灾区驻军和武警部队迅速组织出动，协助抗震救灾，保证灾区人民生命安全。

　　这位发言人说，军队处置突发事件领导小组和各大单位的应急指挥机制全力运转，24小时值班。3万余名官兵通过铁路、公路和空中投送等方式，火速增援地震灾区。

　　特写：迷彩服组成的“生命通道”

　　5月13日，已在前一天的大地震中化为废墟的四川北川县县城外，道路已完全被巨石阻隔，大雨又导致泥浆遍地，但就在漫山的土黄色之中，始终有一条草绿色的“生命通道”，将从废墟中抢救出的生命向山外传递。

　　13日上午，记者冒雨一路摸爬滚打，来到了位于一个山坳中的北川县县城，县城已经基本在地震中化为了废墟，城中浓烟四起，城周道路断裂，落差达两三米，到处是房屋大小的巨石。在城边有数十名刚刚被救出的伤员躺在担架上，在雨中等待转移出这座仍充满了余震和危房的城市。

Tragically, the earthquake in Sichuan now has an official death toll of 7651 people, and many more are expected. Like previous disasters, the central government is making this the top priority, and Premier Wen himself has been dispatched to Sichuan. He is accompanied by Ma Kai, the secretary general of the State Council and former head of the NDRC, and Meng Jianzhu, the Minister of Public Security! Clearly, public order is a major concern. Also, the princelings wanted one of their own representative in Sichuan as well in case Wen decides to fire someone on the spot.

The problem is that bridge collapse has prevented rescuers from going to the epicenter of Wenchuan County, and snow is preventing army helicopters from flying there. The rescue headquarters now is in Dujiangyan, but that is as far as rescuers can go. Our thoughts are with the victims in Sichuan.

四川地震灾区已发现死亡人数7651人
2008年05月12日 23:05:54 　来源：新华网
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新华网成都５月１２日电（记者李彬 杨三军）抗震救灾指挥部透露，截至１２日２２时，四川地震灾区已发现死亡人数７６５１人，还有一些地区死亡情况未统计到。

灾情发生后，四川省委书记刘奇葆、副书记李崇禧等立即赶赴灾区，但因道路全线塌方，只好滞留都江堰市。在都江堰通往汶川的路上，仅都江堰境内就有９处塌方，现正拼命抢修。

汶川一带通讯全部中断，通讯部门想了多种办法，仍无法开通。

四川省已全面总动员，各地从下午就开始拚命抢救被埋人员和伤员。目前指挥有序，除汶川联系不上外，全省受灾地区都已启动紧急预案，投入抗震抢险。所有的省领导和民政、救灾等部门负责人都在一线。

四川汶川发生7.8级地震 胡锦涛作出重要指示
要求尽快抢救伤员保证灾区人民生命安全 温家宝赶赴灾区指导救灾工作

新华网北京5月12日电 据国家地震台网最新测定，北京时间5月12日14时28分，在四川汶川县（北纬31度，东经103.4度)发生7.8级地震。

四川汶川发生地震后，胡锦涛总书记立即作出重要指示，要求尽快抢救伤员，保证灾区人民生命安全。温家宝总理正赶赴灾区指导救灾工作。

新华网快讯：四川汶川发生地震后，胡锦涛总书记立即作出重要指示，要求尽快抢救伤员，保证灾区人民生命安全。温家宝总理正赶赴灾区指导救灾工作。

胡锦涛活动报道集

温家宝抵达四川指挥抗震救灾工作 视频

新华网成都５月１２日电（记者李斌）中共中央政治局常委、国务院总理温家宝１２日下午乘专机抵达四川成都，赶往地震灾区，指挥抢险救灾工作。

在飞往灾区的专机上，温家宝说，灾情发生后，党中央、国务院高度重视，胡锦涛总书记作了重要指示，国务院成立了以我为总指挥的抗震救灾指挥部，并设立有关部门、军队、武警部队和地方党委、政府主要负责人参加的救援组、预报监测组、医疗卫生组、生活安置组、基础设施组、生产恢复组、治安组、宣传组等８个抗震救灾工作组。

温家宝说，这次抗震救灾工作时间特别紧迫，责任特别重大，任务特别艰巨，各级党委和政府要把保护人民生命财产安全放在第一位，全力做好被困群众和受伤群众的救治工作，安排好受灾群众生活，全力组织恢复受损的基础设施，特别要抓紧通水、通电、通路，保证通信畅通，保证重要基础设施和水库大坝、铁路、涵洞安全，保证社会秩序的正常。

党中央、国务院要求，各级领导干部要站在抗震救灾第一线，身先士卒，带领广大群众做好抗震救灾工作，发扬不怕牺牲，不怕疲劳，连续作战的作风，一切想着人民，一切为了人民，一切为人民的利益而工作。

温家宝说，同胞们，同志们，在灾害面前，最重要的是镇定、信心、勇气和强有力的指挥。我相信在党中央和国务院的坚强领导下，广大军民团结一致，众志成城，我们一定能够战胜这场特别重大的地震灾害。

马凯、孟建柱等一起赶往灾区。

Will the CCP begin to hit foreign lobbying groups? I am not sure, but this warrants some attention. The director of the economic security center at the Contemporary International Relations Institute (MSS, I believe) penned an essay warning of foreign encroachment in the policy process. I have to say some of that is happening, but what about traditional lobbying by the armies of local officials stationed in Beijing?? Well, watch out APCO!

The article referenced below in SCMP can be found here:
http://lw.xinhuanet.com/htm/content_3180.htm

Foreigners pose risk to stability, says academic
South China Morning Post, 8 May 2008
Shi Jingtao in Beijing

A leading Communist Party-sponsored publication has sounded an alarm
about the rise of foreign interest groups on the mainland, saying they
pose severe threats to economic security and social stability.

In a strongly worded article published by Xinhua's weekly news magazine,
Outlook, foreign businesses and investment groups came under attack for
their alleged heavy intervention in the mainland's policymaking process
and negative influence on the country's development.

The article by Jiang Yong, director of the Centre for Economic Security
Studies at the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations,
raised grave accusations about the role of foreign businesses in China
in the past three decades - claims rarely seen in official publications.

But mainland analysts criticised the article - which echoed the recent
nationalist sentiment on the mainland after a spate of protests in Tibet
and around the world - for failing to present a full picture of China's
economic and social problems.

Professor Jiang said: "Due to the lack of effective restrictions and
countermeasures, all sorts of overseas interest groups have become ever
more deeply involved in the country's major affairs through various
channels, with complicated implications."

He lashed out at a large number of foreign interest groups, saying their
intense lobbying - or even bribery - of government officials, their
relatives, think-tanks, business leaders and the mainland press had
eroded China's economic sovereignty.

He was critical of overseas listings of the mainland's leading
enterprises, including many state monopolies such as PetroChina, Sinopec
and China Unicom, which had led to a loss of public resources, seepage
of profits overseas and, in some cases, a loss of local control.

His long list of foreign businesses' "bad behaviour" in China also
included their denial of mainland workers' rights to set up labour
unions, rampant tax evasion and their growing involvement in other
economic crimes.

He also accused mainland officials, government-backed experts and the
media of helping foreigners at the expense of social and public
interests. "Under the protection of local government departments, some
multinational companies have long ignored the lawful rights of Chinese
labourers ... which resulted in the soaring number of mass incidents
among their workers," he said.

In another rare, daring move for a mainland academic, he singled out the
children and relatives of top-level officials who had become lobbyists
for foreign business interests.

Professor Jiang published a similar article two years ago in the same
magazine, lambasting "special interest groups" inside and outside the
country.

Liu Junning , a political analyst based in Beijing, said the Outlook
article missed the real culprit of the economic and social woes that
Professor Jiang listed.

"It is a fact that foreign interest groups have a presence in China. But
they should not be blamed first and foremost for the problems in the
country," Professor Liu said.

He said conflicting interests within the ruling party and the mainland's
political system allowed the rise of powerful domestic interest groups
in the first place, and created the problems. "It is not fair to say
that foreigners have made the water here murky, because it was dirty
already."

http://lw.xinhuanet.com/htm/content_3180.htm

正视境外利益集团




与发达国家相比较，在华的境外利益集团无拘无束，为所欲为，应实施有效制约

文/江涌

对外开放30年，进入中国的外资早已告别“散兵游勇”状态。为巩固和扩大在华利益，这些外资依靠自身雄厚经济实力与母国强大政治后盾，通过各种方式，活跃于中国各级

政府部门与重要民间团体之间。由于缺乏有效的制约与制衡，各类境外利益集团通过各种途径，越来越多、越来越深地介入了中国重大事务，并带来一系列复杂影响。

境外利益集团在华活动手法
近些年来，境外利益集团在华活动十分活跃。而中国官方与民间对这类活动及其影响缺乏清晰认识。
其一，强力公关。境外利益集团熟谙中国国情，巧妙利用各方人脉，想方设法接近各级领导人，一方面试图进行商业游说，影响相关决策；另一方面可作炫耀资本，为商业

活动铺路。有媒体曾在相当长一段时间，在黄金时段播放、或于头版头条刊登领导人会见外国企业家的镜头与画面。而为击败竞争对手的并购，积极游说省市政府相关主管部门

，取得了官方鼎力支持的例子也不少。
其二，利益输送。境外利益集团或聘请一些部门领导与职员做咨询师，或将相关课题配以丰厚的课题经费，给予有关部委研究机构与学者等为途径，对中国相关部门决策与

立法施加影响。某些国际大公司常年、多次以课题研究名义，向国内一家研究中心提供研究经费，该中心投桃报李，一直为跨国公司的在华利益而奔走呼号。此外，以安排出国

观光、子女境外就读、协助转移资产等条件，或以参加国际学术研讨、邀请做访问学者、收录论文进SCI（科学引文索引）、授予名誉学位或职称等为诱饵，吸引中国官员、学者

为其效力。
其三，与国内利益集团结成共同体。在对外开放进程中，中国滋生了一大批从事“买办”活动的掮客，这些掮客与境外利益集团形成日趋紧密的“共生”态势，游走在境外利益

集团与国内各级政府部门之间，获取超额收益。与境外利益集团结成利益共同体的还有法人。一些大型中资企业为了自身的短期利益，充当外资的“铺路石”与“敲门砖”。如某些

有违常理的合资路线，一开始就体现出外资的独资图谋。由于中方出资人往往缺乏有关经营经验，因此合资公司实际由外资主导。
其四，与一些地方政府形成共生。在GDP增长作为主要考核政绩的制度安排下，一些地方政府纷纷进行“冲向底部”的“割喉战”，争相招揽外资，过度引进，超前开放，导致日

趋严重的“外资崇拜”。如有的地方政府在筛选当地骨干企业的战略投资者时，首先排除的是中资企业，执意将国有股权转让给境外投资者。“两税合一”刚刚提上议事日程，有的

地方政府和某些外资企业便联合行动，希望影响立法机关的决策，保留外企特殊优惠待遇。
其五，跨国垄断资本结成联盟。中国第一、世界第五的电池生产商福建南孚公司已成为跨国垄断资本合谋的经典案例。1999年南平市有关部门为改善治理结构而主导引进外

资，但竭力避免被同行产业资本（主要是竞争对手美国吉列）所并购。然而，以摩根士丹利为首的国际基金在2002年对南孚实现控股后，2003年就将所持股份全部转售给吉列。
其六，借助总部所在国政治力量。以政治促进商业利益，是国际社会“通行规则”，境外利益集团自然精于此道。如获悉中国有关重点工程需要数亿美元的设备和技术时，有

的外企极力游说该所在国政府与中国政府沟通，甚至通过国家领导人访华促成与中方签署巨额供货协议或交易。

透过现象认识利害关系
经济主权是政治主权的基础，也是国家经济安全的重要内容。保持经济主权的独立是中国对外开放的前提，也是实现经济繁荣、国家富强、民族自决的重要保障。一国的经

济主权不仅体现在领海、领土的管辖与治理权，更重要的是集中在经济自主决策权。
当前，活跃在中国境内的境外利益集团，通过各种方式，越来越多、越来越深地介入中国经济决策。有关中国的经济主权受到侵蚀的话题越来越引起关注。
一是影响中国重大决策。美国现任国务卿在任国家安全顾问时，就特别强调，在军事对抗、政治角力、经济竞争的同时，应当更加注重对目标国知识精英的影响。境外利益

集团利用在华获得的丰厚利润，自己培育并拥有分析师，或高薪聘请优秀华人学者担当顾问或独立董事，通过境内外媒体精心包装、刻意打造，提供各类活动舞台，提高其知名

度、美誉度，从而成为中国国内行业精英，拥有强大的话语权，以期影响行业乃至国家宏观经济决策。
如中国的国有企业股份制改造、股权分置改革、引进境外战略投资者、海外上市等谋划时，表面是相关经济学者在呼吁，实际都或多或少渗透着美国金融机构、智囊机构的

决策诱导。其中，某些市场化、国际化倾向，有可能使国企逐步沦为外企的并购对象，乃至市场被控制或垄断。
从另一面看推进中国优质大型企业或国有垄断企业境外上市，既要为外国金融服务机构提供巨额咨询、审计、评级、承销费用，又造成中国财富通过“分红”形式输送到境外

，如中石油、中石化、中国移动、中国联通四家公司当初境外上市融资不过百亿美元，但是随后四年海外分红就超过千亿美元。
二是影响中国立法。某些跨国公司在中国大举并购，当中不乏涉及谋求或实现市场垄断的情形。起草和颁布《反垄断法》是解决外资并购垄断问题的重要手段，但是境外利

益集团与国内相关利益集团一道施加影响，致使《反垄断法》推迟出台达十多年之久。
三是影响中国政府威信。中国政府明文规定，中国金融实行分业经营、分业监管。但习惯且擅长全能运作的某些外资机构，利用中国混业监管上的某种缺失，加速在中国金

融业的网状布局，有关外资金融机构已在华拥有银行、证券、保险等多种分支机构，“明目张胆”地实施混业经营。
为抑制房地产市场泡沫膨胀，自2004年开始，中央政府实施以紧缩银根为主的宏观调控。但是，若干外资机构凭借其强大的经济实力以及独特的优越地位，向本土房地产公

司提供包括融资在内的各类金融服务。一些国际顶级公司，直接或间接进入中国房地产市场影响房价。
在境外利益集团的影响下，有的部门与机构，扩张自己的部门利益、局部利益以及部门局部中的小团体利益，为此往往不惜采取欺上瞒下的方式，误导高层决策。
四是影响中国法律威严。一些外企集体抵御《劳动合同法》出台，是因为这类外企违法用工比比皆是。有的外企一直不与劳动派遣者签订劳动合同，目的是随时可以辞退这

些员工，而且不用支付赔偿金。
依法纳税是每个公民与法人的义务，依法征税是每个国家的税收主权。不少在华外企长期存在“长亏不倒”和“越亏损越投资”的怪现象，2005年账面亏损的外企占总数60%以上

，其实质大都是通过各种避税手段转移利润，并通过各种公关活动持续避税获利。国家税务总局的不完全统计资料显示，一些跨国公司利用非法手段避税，每年给中国造成税收

收入损失保守估计达300亿元以上。在中国经济年均增长约10%、税收年均增长高达20%～30%的态势下，2004年外资（包括港澳台商企业）百强纳税增长率为零。
中国《工会法》规定，在中国境内的企事业单位、机关中的劳动者，都有依法参加和组织工会的权利，任何组织和个人不得阻挠限制。但是，某些外企以“建立工会组织不符

合国际惯例”等理由拒绝员工参加和组织工会。在华外企近50万家，雇用职工2000多万，但是组建工会的外企不到20万家。
五是影响中国社会和谐稳定。在有的地方部门的庇护下，一些跨国公司长期漠视中国劳动者的合法权益，以至于相关劳动纠纷愈演愈烈。恶劣的工作条件、低廉的工资水平

、缺乏各类劳动保障等因素，使外企职工群体性事件有逐年上升的趋势。
中国民间经济分析机构安邦集团提供的数据称，跨国企业在华行贿事件近十年来一直呈上升趋势，中国调查的50万件腐败案件，64%与国际贸易和外商有关。

借鉴国际经验制约境外利益集团
在西方国家，对境外利益集团的游说等活动，如果不加限制，就有危害本国利益的可能。与发达国家相比较，中国的境外利益集团无拘无束，如今该是依法进行有效制约的

时候了。
首先，约束境外利益集团活动。
方式一，法律制约。美国主要有三部法律——《外国代理人登记法》（1938年）、《联邦院外活动管理法》（1946年）和《院外活动公开法》（1995 年）——对境外利益集团的

活动进行直接管制。主要涉及：对“游说者”的法律地位进行明确界定；实施主动登记制度、定期报告制度与身份表明制度；以及对违法者实施民事与刑事处罚。其他法律也对境

外利益集团的行为进行限制。如《联邦选举法》禁止外国人和外国代理人对选举进行捐款，《政府道德法案》禁止外国人和外国代理人向政府官员馈赠礼物。
方式二，舆论与社会监督。新闻媒体的报道揭露比法律制约更加及时有效，鼓励新闻媒体、社会大众以及其他各类组织机构，对跨国公司、相关涉外团体与个人的行为进行

监督。在美国国会注册的游说组织大约有两万多个，但是注册为“外国代理人”的不到500个。大多数为海外利益进行游说的组织并没有主动履行注册义务。因此，仅靠法律对“外

国代理人”的行为进行约束远远不够，而舆论与社会监督有效弥补了这一不足。其中，社会组织就扮演了极其重要的角色，在防范外国利益集团的活动中，往往是目标的提出者、

活动的领导者和推动者。这些组织往往由国会议员或专业律师发起建立，拥有雄厚的资金基础、严密的组织结构和明确的行动议程，并与政界保持着密切的联系。
方式三，鼓励与境外利益集团相对立、相竞争的利益集团的发展，实现博弈的基本平衡。鼓励竞争性行业商会和同业公会、行业协会以及社会公益团体的发展，形成对强势

集团的制衡。
其次，制约学者与“掮客”行为。
规范部分学者的“研究”行为。本着“管住政府，放开民间”原则，约束、规范各大部委研究机构与学者接受境内外企业、机构资助的课题研究，严格禁止涉外部门工作人员在

外企或驻华商会等的“变相任职”。鉴于行政干预力的敏感以及道德制约力的缺失，鼓励相关社会公益团体对那些充当“黑嘴”或境外利益集团代言人并造成严重不良社会影响的学

者提起法律诉讼，以制约某些学者日益严重的道德风险问题。增加决策与执行的透明度，鼓励媒体进行公正的舆论监督，激励公众进行必要的社会监督。
约束“掮客”的买办行为。充当掮客、游走于境外利益集团与国内各政府部门之间的有一些是领导干部子女亲属。因此，强化高级领导干部财产与子女亲属就业的申报、登记

与公示制，敦促高级干部以身作则，身体力行，管教好自己的子女亲属。
再有，遏制部门与地方利益膨胀。部门利益与地方利益膨胀，有可能驱使一些地方政府或部门与境外利益集团“同舟共济”。部门利益、地方利益与境外利益的紧密交织，是

境外利益集团活动为所欲为的主要诱因。因此，必须坚决遏制部门利益、地方利益的不断膨胀。□（作者为中国现代国际关系研究院经济安全研究中心主任）