Thursday, July 03, 2008

For those of you who are interested in the macroeconomy in China, one of the most important reports for the next few months just came out. It is the monthly Shenzhen housing sales report. Basically, my argument for this report is that this is the only report authored by the local government which contradicts NDRC figures on housing sale prices. This report has consistently reported more pessimistic figures than NDRC figures for Shenzhen. I suspect NDRC is being overly optimistic for much of the country. If the discrepancies between NDRC and actual figures generally are as great as those in the case of Shenzhen, China is in pretty big trouble. Basically, we will see NPL ratios go up, and part of the foreign exchange reserve will have to be used to recapitalized banks again. Well, you can read the report (I also recommend past reports) and judge for yourself.

Meanwhile, we are getting sparse information about other cities. Wuhan, for example, provides the following short paragraphs. Nonetheless, it is quite telling. According to this bare report, there is 23 million sq meter under construction in Wuhan. In the mean time, between January and May, 2.66 million sq meter of real estate was sold in the city. At this rate of sale, it would take Wuhan roughly three and half years to sell the real estate under construction, and this is not counting the inventory of new housing.

http://bj.house.sina.com.cn 2008年07月04日07:37 汉网--长江日报

  本报讯 今年1月至5月,我市商品房销售面积266.05万平方米,同比下降30%。昨日,市统计局发布前5个月全市经济运行状况时透露这一数据。


  统计专家分析,90平方米以下住宅投资和施工面积增幅分别超过100%和200%,显示未来一段时间我市住宅市场中小户型房源将大量增加。 (吴光振 应小莉)

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