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Monday, January 19, 2009

The State Council Gets Desperate

A piece on today's People's Daily confirms my previous observations that Wen now ONLY cares about maintaining growth. I especially like the phrase "issue loans as soon as possible." Sure, there were some pleasantries at the end to "in the end preserve the healthy functioning of banks." But "in the end," we are all dead...

讨论《政府工作报告(征求意见稿)》
温家宝指出,今年是我国进入新世纪以来经济发展最困难的一年。要全力做好一季度经济工作,尽快扭转经济增速下滑趋势,千方百计实现今年经济工作的良好开局

2009年01月20日00:00 来源:人民网-《人民日报》
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  本报北京1月19日电 国务院总理温家宝19日上午主持召开国务院第二次全体会议,讨论即将提请十一届全国人大二次会议审议的《政府工作报告(征求意见稿)》。会议决定,将此稿发往各省、自治区、直辖市和中央有关部门、单位征求意见。

  温家宝在会上发表了讲话。他说,今年在应对国际金融危机的特殊情况下,政府工作报告倍受国内外关注,人民群众寄予厚望。一定要以对党和国家事业、对人民群众高度负责的精神,认真写好这个《报告》。要把《报告》稿征求意见和修改的过程,作为统一认识、增强信心的过程,作为应对危机、克服困难的过程,作为集思广益、科学决策的过程,作为完善措施、狠抓落实的过程。

  温家宝指出,过去的一年,是极不寻常、极不平凡的一年。我们全面夺取抗击两场突如其来特大自然灾害的重大胜利,积极应对历史罕见国际金融危机的严重冲击,克服国际市场初级产品价格剧烈波动的不利影响,保持了国民经济平稳较快发展和物价基本稳定。我们正确把握宏观调控的方向、重点、力度和节奏,根据经济形势的变化,适时对宏观经济政策做出重大调整。特别是下半年,针对国际金融危机对我国经济的不利影响,我们果断提出灵活审慎的宏观经济政策,将宏观调控的重点转向保持经济平稳较快增长,明确提出实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,迅速推出扩大内需、促进经济平稳较快增长的十项措施。实践证明,中央采取的一系列宏观调控政策是及时的、正确的、有效的,使我们在应对国际金融危机中赢得了时间,争取了主动,稳定了局势。

  温家宝指出,今年是我国进入新世纪以来经济发展最困难的一年。做好一季度经济工作,将为完成全年国民经济和社会发展各项任务赢得主动,奠定基础,也可起到振奋精神、坚定信心、鼓舞士气的作用。要全力做好一季度经济工作,尽快扭转经济增速下滑趋势,千方百计实现今年经济工作的良好开局。(一)抓紧落实近期出台的扩大内需、促进经济增长的一揽子计划,加快制定和实施重点产业调整振兴规划。做到尽早完善政策规划和科技支撑规划,尽早核准项目计划,尽早安排财政资金,尽早下达银行贷款,尽早落实各项措施。(二)抓好冬春农业生产。要抓紧落实各项强农惠农政策,特别是粮食直补、良种补贴、农资综合补贴和农机具购置补贴政策要及早兑现到户。搞好越冬农作物管理,大力加强冬春农田水利和高标准农田建设,提前做好春耕备耕工作。(三)促进工业平稳较快发展。要引导企业调整产品结构,加强内部管理,降低经营成本,积极开拓市场,稳定就业岗位。亏损企业要尽快实现扭亏增盈。落实调整振兴产业各项规划。大力扶持中小企业发展。(四)搞好春节商品供应和服务,扩大城乡居民消费。认真落实“家电下乡”、“汽车下乡”、农机补贴等政策。(五)努力保持对外贸易稳定增长。要继续实施以质取胜和市场多元化战略,积极开拓新兴市场,努力提高出口产品质量。落实国务院保持外贸稳定增长的政策措施。(六)维护金融稳定和金融安全。要妥善应对国际金融危机的变化,既要严密防范外来冲击,也要加强防范和化解内部风险,始终保持我国银行业稳健运行。

  温家宝指出,我们的政府是人民的政府,必须始终坚持以人为本的执政理念。越是困难的时候,越要重视民意、体察民情、关注民生,维护社会和谐稳定。各地区、各部门要坚决落实中央关于保障和改善民生的一系列部署,着力解决关系人民群众切身利益的热点难点问题。一是高度重视做好就业工作。今年就业形势十分严峻,各地区、各部门要逐项落实国务院加强高校毕业生就业工作的七项措施和做好当前农民工工作的六项措施。二是关心困难群众生产生活。各级领导同志要经常深入灾区、贫困地区和困难企业,认真解决群众面临的各种实际问题,确保他们吃饱穿暖、安全过冬。认真落实中央确定的对灾区扶持政策,积极做好对口支援工作。三是抓好安全生产和社会稳定。全面开展安全生产隐患排查治理,加强公共聚集地的安全防范,抓好重点行业和重点企业的安全管理。强化社会治安综合治理,积极化解各类社会矛盾。各地方要精心组织丰富多彩、健康向上的群众文化活动,深入开展科技、文化、卫生“三下乡”活动,确保全国人民过一个欢乐、祥和、平安的春节。

  温家宝最后说,今年政府工作艰巨而又繁重。我们要在以胡锦涛同志为总书记的党中央领导下,紧紧依靠全国人民,抓住机遇,迎接挑战,克服困难,以经济社会又好又快发展的新成绩迎接新中国成立60周年!

  国务院全体会议组成人员出席了会议,有关部门、单位负责人列席了会议。

Comments:
Wen is an unabashed populist now, and increasingly sounds like a cheerleader.
 
Which reminds me. I've always wanted to congratulate you for writing "Factions and Finance in China: Elite Conflict and Inflation" which I thought was a brilliant examination of the Chinese poltical economy.

However, in reading that book, my impression was that the conflict between the "technocrats" and the "populists" was a *good* thing, as it maintained a balance between competing and conflicting economic objectives, whereas I seemed to get the impression that you thought the technocrats were right and the populists were wrong.

The reason I think the populist-technocrat balance is a good thing comes from the current situation. If the technocrats stay in charge, then I think that there is a good chance of a deflationary spiral followed my massive social unrest leading to a general institutional breakdown of the type that killed Russian or Latin American economic growth. On the other hand, if the technocrats weren't in control over the last few years, then we wouldn't have gotten the NPL's from the early-1990's down to managable size so that the banks can open up the vaults now.

And the fact that each has to live with the other group means that there has to be some tolerance of disagreement within the political system, which means that you get some of the dynamics of multi-party democracy within a one party framework.
 
You are right. As popular Wen is, he has little backbone. He showed some backbone last year in fighting inflation. However, that was short lived. Privately, a lot of government officials have admitted to me that they do not respect him.
 
Wen also has a far weaker base than previous Premiers, which means that he has not been able to have as much influence over appointments that will "keep him in the game" after he gets tossed out to xicheng for a quiet retirement. On the comparison to LatAm, I agree, but the downside to easing up on credit so much when there is already excess capacity (also a deflationary contributor), then it strengthens the iron triangle between local leaders, firms and bankers, which is net bad for efficiency. There is already plenty of intra-party democracy, if that means that one group can say no and pretty much obstruct consistent policy implementation. This also results in the hardening of industry-institutional-financial linkages. The next generation is probably smart enough to see that they have to reach some kind of partial bureacratic equilibrium to remain collectively effective.
 
Is it possible that Wen will be gone by the end of the year - if the economy doesn't pick up, if the corruption allegations against his wife or son stick, etc?

Li Keqiang (as premier) then gets a clear run against Xi Jinping?
 
it's not that wise to say which group is right or wrong between the technocrats and populists. Also, there isn't lucky balance simply between them. When we look backward on them, it is just the difference between selfish and more selfish, greedy and greedier, and stupid and more stupid.It's obvious to tell if they have been working hard for the sake of lao bai xing, or their own political and commercial benefit.The social stability of China is more depended on the balance between the power of righterous policy makers on behald of public and selfish ones on behalf of vested interests groups.
 
Yes, your last point is an important one. There is not a shortage of bright and well informed people in Beijing. They are just overpowered by the greedy ones.
 
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