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Friday, April 16, 2010

Premier Wen's Essay on Hu Yaobang

As many of you know, Premier Wen Jiabao recently penned a very emotional essay remembering former Party Secretary General Hu Yaobang. To be sure, it was published on the 21st anniversary of his death, but there are some very unusual elements of this essay. I attach the full text below for readers' own analysis. Needless to say, the China studies community has been in an uproar about this essay. Below, I present my own take of this essay; comments welcomed!

To be sure, Wen shows no hesitation to display affection publicly, but if his feelings were "sincere," why didn't he write such an article last year? Also, like many, I find the last paragraph especially strange. Isn't reminiscing Hu's greatness enough? Why also tell readers that he continues to visit Hu's widow every year? I read that as a credible signal to all Hu YB sympathizers which side Wen stands on.

Now, the question is why send such a signal. To be sure, Hu Yaobang has been making a come-back in the official press. the last time that Hu was praised by a Politburo Standing Committee member was Zeng Qinghong's speech in 2005. If you read the text of the Zeng Qinghong's 2005 speech on HYB (which I also append below), it reads like a detailed official biography of Hu with some usual pleasantry about "great Marxist"...etc at the end. The Wen piece clearly appears to be the most "heart-felt." Again, the issue is why the need to send such an emotional signal.

One possibility is that Hu Jintao is trying to send a strong signal of the CYL's power in the run-up to the 18th Party Congress. But if that were the case, why not just write such an article himself. I am sure Hu can conjure up many emotional anecdotes of his former mentor.

Finally, we come to the hypothesis that Wen Jiabao himself is in deep trouble and may be under threat of being removed. I find this possibility the most reasonable. In essence, Wen may feel that he is under direct threat of being removed or may implement a policy which puts him in danger of being removed. As either a last ditch effort or an insurance policy, he writes this article to rally HYB sympathizers on his side in case his enemies move to remove him from power. In particular, I was struck by the paragraph on Hu YB's insistence of working despite
being ill. We know of course that "illness" has historically been used to sideline or remove top officials in China (Chen Yun, Li Peng...etc.). It seems that Wen is saying through that passage that "as a loyal student of HYB, I would never let illness stop me, so you shouldn't believe people if they say I am stepping down due to illness." All this may be related to the possible implementation of the property tax, which may indeed place Wen under the threat of removal by powerful interests.

温家宝在人民日报发表文章纪念胡耀邦
http://www.sina.com.cn 2010年04月15日05:24 人民网-人民日报

  温家宝:再回兴义忆耀邦

  前些天,我到贵州黔西南察看旱情。走在这片土地上,望着这里的山山水水,我情不自禁地想起24年前随耀邦同志在这里考察调研的情形,尤其是他在兴义派我夜访农户的往事。每念及此,眼前便不断浮现出耀邦同志诚挚坦荡、平易近人的音容笑貌,胸中那积蓄多年的怀念之情如潮水般起伏涌动,久久难以平复。

  1986年年初,耀邦同志决定利用春节前后半个月时间,率领由中央机关27个部门的30名干部组成的考察访问组,前往贵州、云南、广西的一些贫困地区调研,看望慰问各族干部群众。耀邦同志想以此举做表率,推动中央机关干部深入基层,加强调查研究,密切联系群众。

  当时,我刚调任中央办公厅副主任不久,耀邦同志让我具体负责组织这次考察访问工作。2月4日上午,耀邦同志带领考察访问组全体成员从北京出发,前往贵州安顺。由于安顺大雾,飞机临时改降贵阳。当天下午,耀邦同志又换乘面包车奔波4个多小时赶到安顺。晚饭后,耀邦同志召开会议,把考察访问组人员分成三路,分头前往云南文山、广西河池和贵州毕节地区。

  第二天清晨,耀邦同志带着我和中央办公厅几位同事从安顺出发,乘坐面包车,沿着曲折的山路在黔、滇、桂交界处的崇山峻岭中穿行。耀邦同志尽管已年过七旬,但每天都争分夺秒地工作。他边走边调研,甚至把吃饭的时间都用上,每天很晚休息。离开安顺后的几天里,耀邦同志先后听取贵州镇宁、关岭、晴隆、普安、盘县和云南富源、师宗、罗平县的汇报,沿途不断与各族群众交流,了解他们的生产生活情况。他还在罗平县长底乡与苗族、布依族、彝族、汉族群众跳起《民族大团结》舞。2月7日傍晚,耀邦同志风尘仆仆赶到黔西南州首府兴义市,入住在州府低矮破旧的招待所。

  时已立春,兴义早晚的天气仍然阴冷潮湿。由于没有暖气,房间里冷冰冰的。我们临时找来3个小暖风机放在耀邦同志的房间,室温也只有摄氏12度左右。经过几天马不停蹄地奔波调研,耀邦同志显得有些疲惫。我劝他晚上好好休息一下,但他仍坚持当晚和黔西南州各族干部群众代表见面。

  晚饭前,耀邦同志把我叫去:“家宝,给你一个任务,等一会带上几个同志到城外的村子里走走,做些调查研究。记住,不要和地方打招呼。”

  到中央办公厅工作之前,我就听说耀邦同志下乡时,经常临时改变行程,与群众直接交流,了解基层真实情况。用他常说的话就是,“看看你们没有准备的地方”。所以,当耀邦同志给我布置这个任务时,我心里明白:他是想尽可能地多了解基层的真实情况。

  天黑后,我带着中央办公厅的几位同志悄悄离开招待所向郊外走去。那时,兴义城区只有一条叫盘江路的大路。路旁的房子比较低矮,路灯昏暗,街道冷清。我们沿着盘江路向东走了10多分钟就到了郊外。这里到处是农田,四周一片漆黑,分不清东南西北。看见不远处,影影绰绰有几处灯光,我们便深一脚浅一脚摸了过去。到近处一看,果然是个小村子。进村后,我们访问了几户农家。黑灯瞎火的夜晚,纯朴的村民们见到几个外地人感到有些意外,但当知道我们来意后,很热情地招呼我们。

  晚上十点多,我们赶回招待所。我走进耀邦同志的房间,只见他坐在一把竹椅上正在等我。我向他一五一十地汇报了走访农户时了解到的有关情况。耀邦同志认真地听着,还不时问上几句。他对我说,领导干部一定要亲自下基层调查研究,体察群众疾苦,倾听群众呼声,掌握第一手材料。对担负领导工作的人来说,最大的危险就是脱离实际。多年来,耀邦同志这几句语重心长的话经常在我耳旁回响。

  2月8日是农历大年三十。耀邦同志一大早来到黔西南民族师范专科学校,向各族教师拜年并和他们座谈。接着,他又兴致勃勃地赶到布依族山寨乌拉村看望农民,并到布依族农民黄维刚家做客。黄维刚按照布依族接待贵客的习俗,把一个炖熟的鸡头夹放在耀邦同志的碗里。就这样,耀邦同志和黄维刚全家有说有笑地吃了顿团圆年饭。

  随后,耀邦同志又乘汽车沿山路行驶一百多公里,赶到黔桂交界处的天生桥水电站工地,向春节期间坚持施工的建设者们致以节日的问候。当晚,耀邦同志在武警水电建设部队招待所一间简陋的平房中住下。不久,他开始发烧,体温升到38.7度。事实上,从午后开始,耀邦同志就感到身体不适。不过,他依旧情绪饱满地参加各项活动。

  除夕之夜,辞旧迎新的鞭炮在四周响个不停,但大家没有心思过年。我和耀邦同志身边的工作人员一直守候着他。2月9日,初一早晨,耀邦同志的体温达到39度。这里远离昆明、贵阳、南宁等大城市,附近又没有医院,大家都很着急。好在经过随行医生的治疗,耀邦同志到晚上开始退烧,大家的心才放了下来。

  2月10日上午,身体稍稍恢复的耀邦同志不顾大家的劝阻,坚持前往广西百色。经过320多公里的山路颠簸,耀邦同志于晚上6点多到了百色。在百色期间,耀邦同志带着我们参观了中国工农红军第七军旧址,并与百色地区8个县的县委书记座谈。2月11日晚,我们赶到南宁。随后两天,耀邦同志在南宁进行短暂的休整。我根据耀邦同志的要求,又带着几个同志到南宁市郊区就农业生产、水牛养殖、农产品市场等问题进行调研。每次回到住地,他总是等着听我的汇报。 14日和15日,耀邦同志经钦州前往北海市,先后考察了北海港和防城港的港口建设。2月16日,耀邦同志又折回南宁,与三路考察访问组人员会合。接着,他用两天半的时间听取了考察访问组和云南、广西、贵州的汇报。

  2月19日下午,耀邦同志根据自己13天沿途调查的思考并结合有关汇报,在干部大会上作了即席讲话。他特别强调,中央和省级领导干部要经常到群众中去,到基层去,进行调查研究,考察访问,密切上级与下级、领导机关同广大人民群众之间的联系。这样,不仅可以形成一种好的风气,产生巨大的精神力量,更重要的是有助于实现正确的领导,减少领导工作的失误,提高干部的素质,促进干部特别是年轻干部健康成长。

  1986年2月20日下午,耀邦同志率领考察访问组回到北京,结束了历时半个多月的西南贫困地区之行……

  时光飞逝。耀邦同志当年带领我们在西南考察时的情形历历在目,仿佛就在昨天。今年4月3日,当我再次来到兴义市时,简直不敢相信自己的眼睛:原先低矮落后的小城已发展成为一个高楼林立的现代化城市,兴义城区现在的面积比1986年拓展了4倍多,城区人口增长近3倍。

  睹物思人,触景生情。耀邦同志派我夜访的情景又在眼前,一股旧地重寻的念头十分强烈。当天晚饭后,我悄悄带了几个随行的同志离开驻地,想去寻找那个多年前夜访过的村庄。灯火辉煌的盘江路上,商铺林立,十分热闹。原先那个村庄早已不在,取而代之的是一幢幢拔地而起的高楼。我坚持要再夜访一个村庄,仍然只带随行的几个工作人员来到郊外。在远处几片灯光引领下,我们走进永兴村,敲开农户雷朝志的家门,和他及他的邻居们聊了起来……

  耀邦同志离开我们21年了。如今,可以告慰耀邦同志的是,他一直牵挂的我国西南贫困地区发生了翻天覆地的变化,他竭尽毕生精力为之奋斗的国家正沿着中国特色社会主义道路阔步前行。

  1985年10月,我调到中央办公厅工作后,曾在耀邦同志身边工作近两年。我亲身感受着耀邦同志密切联系群众、关心群众疾苦的优良作风和大公无私、光明磊落的高尚品德,亲眼目睹他为了党的事业和人民的利益,夜以继日地全身心投入工作中的忘我情景。当年他的谆谆教诲我铭记在心,他的言传身教使我不敢稍有懈怠。他的行事风格对我后来的工作、学习和生活都带来很大的影响。1987年1月,耀邦同志不再担任中央主要领导职务后,我经常到他家中去看望。 1989年4月8日上午,耀邦同志发病抢救时,我一直守护在他身边。4月15日,他猝然去世后,我第一时间赶到医院。1990年12月5日,我送他的骨灰盒到江西共青城安葬。耀邦同志去世后,我每年春节都到他家中看望,总是深情地望着他家客厅悬挂的耀邦同志画像。他远望的目光,坚毅的神情总是给我力量,给我激励,使我更加勤奋工作,为人民服务。

  再回兴义,抚今追昔,追忆耀邦。我写下这篇文章,以寄托我对他深深的怀念。



在纪念胡耀邦同志诞辰90周年座谈会上的讲话(2005年11月18日)
曾庆红 (2005.11.19)
  在纪念胡耀邦同志诞辰90周年座谈会上的讲话
  (2005年11月18日)同志们,朋友们:
今天,我们怀着崇敬的心情在这里举行座谈会,纪念胡耀邦同志诞辰90周年,缅怀他为民族独立、人民解放和国家富强、人民幸福建立的历史功勋,学习他伟大的革命精神和崇高的品德风范,更好地把中国特色社会主义事业推向前进。
胡耀邦同志是久经考验的忠诚的共产主义战士,伟大的无产阶级革命家、政治家,我军杰出的政治工作者,长期担任党的重要领导职务的卓越领导人。他在长达60年的革命生涯中,为中国人民的解放和幸福,为我国社会主义事业的发展和繁荣,为改革开放的实行和社会主义现代化建设的推进,呕心沥血、奋斗不息,贡献了毕生精力,建立了不朽功勋。他的历史功绩和优秀品德永远铭记在党和人民心中。
胡耀邦同志从青少年时期就投身新民主主义革命。1915年11月20日,胡耀邦同志出生在湖南省浏阳县一个贫苦的农民家庭。1929年冬,胡耀邦同志加入中国共产主义青年团,在党领导下开始从事青少年工作。1933年9月,他转为中国共产党党员。在革命斗争的实践中,他树立起坚定的共产主义信念,为革命根据地团的建设做了大量工作。1934年,胡耀邦同志随中央红军参加二万五千里长征,经受了各种艰难困苦的考验,磨炼了革命意志。到达陕北后,他先后任少共中央局秘书长、组织部长、宣传部长,为党的青年工作贡献了力量。1937年5月,胡耀邦同志到延安抗日军政大学学习,并先后任校政治部副主任、瓦窑堡一大队政委。1939年,他任中央军委总政治部组织部副部长、部长。在坚持抗战的过程中,他为加强人民军队的政治思想建设和组织建设作出了重要贡献。解放战争时期,胡耀邦同志先后任冀热辽军区代理政治部主任,晋察冀军区四纵队、三纵队政委,十八兵团政治部主任,转战华北和西北,参加领导了大同、张家口、石家庄、太原、宝鸡战役等,为中国人民抗日战争和解放战争的胜利发挥了重要作用。
新中国成立后,胡耀邦同志致力于推动社会主义革命和建设事业。1949年冬,他率部进军大西南,任中共川北区委书记、行署主任、军区政委,领导人民群众进行土地改革,开展剿匪反霸斗争,稳定社会秩序,迅速恢复和发展了工农业生产。1952年后,胡耀邦同志先后任团中央书记处书记、第一书记。在主持团中央工作期间,他创造性地执行党中央的指示,围绕党的中心工作组织富有青年特色的活动,注重在实践中用共产主义思想教育团员青年,在全团倡导“朝气蓬勃,实事求是”的作风,团结带领团员青年积极参加社会主义建设,使团的工作和青少年事业得到巨大的发展,充分发挥了共青团作为党的助手和后备军的重要作用。1956年,他在党的八大上当选为中央委员。1962年,胡耀邦同志兼任中共湖南省委书记处书记兼湘潭地委第一书记。1964年11月起,他兼任中共中央西北局第二书记和陕西省委第一书记。在地方工作中,他深入实际,调查研究,实事求是,反对浮夸,关心群众,扎实工作,推进了当地经济建设和各项事业的发展。
“文化大革命”期间,胡耀邦同志遭受严重迫害,但他不顾个人的荣辱安危,同林彪、江青反革命集团进行了坚决斗争。1975年,他在担任中国科学院党组织领导时,认真贯彻邓小平同志提出的全面整顿的方针,领导起草了《关于科技工作的几个问题》的汇报提纲,实事求是地反映科技战线的实际情况,努力消除“文化大革命”给科技工作造成的不良影响。
粉碎江青反革命集团后,胡耀邦同志于1977年3月任中共中央党校副校长,8月在党的十一大上当选为中央委员,12月任中共中央组织部部长。1978年12月,他在党的十一届三中全会上当选为中央政治局委员、中央纪律检查委员会第三书记,随后任中共中央秘书长兼中央宣传部部长。1980年2月,他在党的十一届五中全会上当选为中央政治局常委、中央委员会总书记。1981年6月,他在党的十一届六中全会上当选为中央委员会主席。1982年9月,他在党的十二届一中全会上当选为中央政治局委员、中央政治局常委、中央委员会总书记。1987年11月,他在党的十三届一中全会上当选为中央政治局委员。胡耀邦同志在担任党的主要领导职务期间,积极参与制定和贯彻以邓小平同志为核心的党的第二代中央领导集体的重大决策和战略部署,为坚持党的十一届三中全会以来的路线方针政策,为推动改革开放和社会主义现代化建设,为推进中国特色社会主义事业,作出了多方面的重大贡献。
他坚持党的解放思想、实事求是的思想路线,组织和推动了关于真理标准的讨论。在邓小平同志等老一辈无产阶级革命家领导和支持下开展的这场思想解放运动,冲破“两个凡是”的严重束缚,为党的十一届三中全会重新确立党的马克思主义思想路线作了重要的理论准备,成为拨乱反正和改革开放的思想先导,对党和国家的历史进程产生了深远的影响。
他坚持党的干部路线,坚持实事求是、有错必纠,组织和领导了平反冤假错案、落实干部政策的大量工作。他顺应人民群众的意愿和要求,以非凡的胆略和勇气,组织有关部门开展艰苦细致的工作,使一大批遭受冤屈和迫害的老一辈革命家、干部、知识分子和人民群众得以平反昭雪、恢复名誉,受到广大干部群众高度赞誉。
他坚决拥护党和国家工作重点的转移,大力推进改革开放和社会主义现代化建设。他在党的十二大上代表中央所作的题为《全面开创社会主义现代化建设的新局面》的报告,鲜明地提出了党在新时期的重大历史任务。他主持和参与主持制定了包括《中共中央关于经济体制改革的决定》在内的一系列关于农村改革、城市改革、对外开放的重要文件,努力探索党和国家领导体制的改革,为推进改革开放进程倾注了大量心血。他十分关心欠发达地区的建设事业,经常深入老少边穷地区,同当地干部群众共商脱贫致富大计,促进这些地区的开发开放。
他坚持党的尊重知识、尊重人才的方针,注意发挥知识分子在现代化建设中的重要作用。他先后主持制定了《中共中央关于教育体制改革的决定》和《中共中央关于社会主义精神文明建设指导方针的决议》,推动科技、教育、文艺、新闻工作出现了蓬勃发展的局面。他热情鼓励年轻知识分子到基层去,到群众中去,到现代化建设的实践中去,经受锻炼,健康成长。
他坚持贯彻党的统一战线工作的方针政策,着眼于调动各方面的积极因素,积极推进党的统一战线工作和民族工作、宗教工作。他为坚持和完善中国共产党领导的多党合作和政治协商制度,加强中国共产党同各民主党派和无党派人士的合作,建立肝胆相照、荣辱与共的关系,为推动民族地区经济社会发展,做了大量富有成效的工作。
他坚持推动新形势下党的建设,为加强和改善党的领导做了大量工作。他在纪念马克思逝世100周年大会上作的题为《马克思主义伟大真理的光芒照耀我们前进》的报告,充分表达了我们党在新的历史条件下坚持和发展马克思主义的坚定信念。他参与主持制定《关于党内政治生活的若干准则》,强调要发扬党的优良传统和作风,维护党的民主集中制,严明党的纪律,发展党内民主。他坚持党的干部队伍“四化”方针,大力推进各级领导班子建设和干部人事制度改革,满腔热情地关怀和培养优秀年轻干部。
他坚定不移地与不正之风和腐败现象作斗争,号召各级领导干部和中央机关在端正党风方面发挥表率作用。
他坚持党的外交方针政策,积极推动新时期我国对外交往工作开创新局面。他根据邓小平同志的思想,明确提出处理党际关系的四项原则,为恢复和发展我们党同外国一些政党的关系,为增进中国人民同世界各国人民的相互了解和友谊,为新时期我国对外政策的制定和实施,发挥了积极作用。
胡耀邦同志把自己的毕生精力献给了党和人民的事业。作为马克思主义者,他的一生是光辉的。我们纪念胡耀邦同志诞辰90周年,就是要学习他伟大的革命精神和高尚的思想品德,把中国特色社会主义事业继续推向前进。
我们要学习胡耀邦同志忠于党的事业、鞠躬尽瘁的献身精神。胡耀邦同志具有强烈的革命事业心和政治责任感,具有忘我工作的热情和勇往直前的干劲,始终不知疲倦地为党和人民贡献自己的智慧和力量,为我们树立了共产党人始终为中国特色社会主义事业和共产主义理想不懈奋斗的榜样。
我们要学习胡耀邦同志锐意改革、勇于创新的思想境界。胡耀邦同志长期孜孜不倦地学习和研究马克思主义、毛泽东思想、邓小平理论,坚持理论联系实际,勤于思考和研究各种现实课题,提出了许多重要主张和建议,同时博览群书,追求新知,不断丰富知识、增长才干,为我们树立了共产党人始终保持进取精神的榜样。
我们要学习胡耀邦同志密切联系群众、关心群众疾苦的优良作风。胡耀邦同志作风民主,平易近人,经常深入基层,广交朋友,加强同人民群众包括知识界和党外朋友的直接联系和坦诚交流,了解他们的愿望和要求,亲自阅处大量群众来信,千方百计为人民群众排忧解难,为我们树立了共产党人始终实践全心全意为人民服务宗旨的榜样。
我们要学习胡耀邦同志顾全大局、光明磊落的高尚品德。胡耀邦同志胸怀坦荡,按党的原则办事,敢于讲真话、讲实话,勇于开展批评和自我批评,以身作则,廉洁奉公,严于律己,宽以待人,坚决维护党和人民的利益,为我们树立了共产党人始终以党和人民的利益为重的榜样。
当前,我国正处在全面建设小康社会、加快推进社会主义现代化的关键时期。紧紧抓住和切实用好重要战略机遇期,不断开创中国特色社会主义事业新局面,是我们肩负的重大历史责任。我们要始终坚持以马克思列宁主义、毛泽东思想、邓小平理论和“三个代表”重要思想为指导,坚持党的基本路线、基本纲领、基本经验,坚持用科学发展观统领经济社会发展全局,切实抓好发展这个党执政兴国的第一要务,聚精会神搞建设,一心一意谋发展,积极推动社会主义经济建设、政治建设、文化建设、社会建设全面发展。我们要高举和平、发展、合作的旗帜,坚持独立自主的和平外交政策,坚持走和平发展道路,坚持对外开放的基本国策,努力促进同世界各国的友好交往和互利合作,共同推进人类和平与发展的崇高事业。我们要大力加强党的执政能力建设和先进性建设,深入开展党风廉政建设和反腐败斗争,不断提高党的创造力、凝聚力、战斗力,使党始终成为建设中国特色社会主义的坚强领导核心。
同志们,让我们更加紧密地团结在以胡锦涛同志为总书记的党中央周围,全面贯彻党的十六大和十六届三中、四中、五中全会精神,求真务实,锐意进取,扎实工作,为推动全面建设小康社会进程、实现中华民族的伟大复兴而努力奋斗!(新华社北京11月18日电)

Comments:
Prof. Shih, some observations from Chinese political tradition's perspective:

1. Wen is notorious for his emotional style of political performance, particularly public appearance and writing. So it's not unusual for him to go emotional in such article. It may be the case that he carries much emotion in the article of HYB, given their past connections, but such conclusion can not be drawn based on his rhetoric in this article.

2. The reason Wen didn't write it last year was clear, a reminiscence of HYB in the 20th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square naturally leads to a reminiscence of all things happened following HYB's death that year. It'd be a political disaster and earthquake to publish that in 2009, unless Wen has a more aggressive agenda.

3. HYB's stature in CCP's history is unique. He has always been officially recognized as "Leader of the Party and Nation", and the official treatment he received posthumously is at a reasonable level. No political committee member in recent terms has publicly criticized HYB. In CCP's perspective, HYB is completely different with Zhao Ziyang, and there'll be no political asset for any leader to deny HYB. Hence, no one actually stands against HYB, So Wen's benefit from signaling his stance is actually limited, if any.

4. If we take a look at the Chinese political tradition in remembering leaders, Zeng Qinghong's appearance in 2005 is actually the most meaningful inroad. CCP tends to remeber high leader's birth at the beginning point of each decennium,i.e. 80,90,100 anniversary. And HYB didn't get such one in 1995, his 80 anniversary, which is understandable given the atmosphere then, the 2005 then become crucial in evaluating CCP's attitude toward HYB. ZQH's appearance, as the Standing member in charge of party affairs, carries great weight. In terms of his speech then, it's a standard-written one in typical CCP leader memorial style. ZQH's speech and WJB's article is two form of expression, with the former disallows personal emotion, and actually reflects the authority's appreciation of HYB, rather than ZQH's personal idea. WJB's essay is a personal article, not for official occasion, and given his lavish and emotional style, comes as no surprise.

5. It's possible that this article is intended to push CYL's power before 18th congress. But one notable fact in CCP politics tradition is that party boss rarely publish personal authored pieced on People's Daily. I find no record of HJT, even JZM publishing articles of this style on People's Daily ever. (except political documents, such as new year speech, party congress report). Interestingly in contrast, Wen has utilized People's Daily in remarkable frequency to publish personal-authored articles similar to this HYB one. That's also one thing worth examination, on different political communication strategies different leaders choose. So even HJT wish to write such articles, it's not consistent with his style. And I wonder whether WJB is closely-allies with HJT enough to make push for CYL. WJB is never considered as a part of CYL, and is not expected to be a staunch supporter of this bloc.

6. Removal of PM is of greatest significance in China, the only time when PM was unusually removed was in 1980, associated with major political reshuffle then. There's extremely slim possibility that Wen even foresees a potential forebode of risk of removal. With his term to expire within 3 years, it's so hard to imagine that Wen is at risk of removal, and if he's in that dangerous situation, I don't think he'll still be capable of getting this article published.
 
I always appreciate your analysis, Prof Shih, but I do wonder a bit about this kind of reading.

If you - a scholar who's dedicated himself to reading the runes - and all the other political analysts can't read clearly what the "signal" being sent here is, then why do we believe that party cadres (not always intellectual giants) are able to decode them? This idea of treating Party publications as code breaks down if no-one can actually understand the code.

I liked the essay a lot - I'm a bit of a Wen fan, despite the emetic Uncle Wen stuff. Until someone comes up with a better reason, I'm going to take his essay at face value.
 
No way I know way way less than central committee members
 
Another notice,

Wen omitted one notable fact that, when HYB and Wen paid visit to Xingyi, Guizhou Province in 1986, HJT happened to be the party boss there. Accordingly, HJT must be present during HYB and Wen's visit. Interesting to see this historical dynamic not cited in Wen's article.
 
I really don't think that the HYB piece was a move by Wen to bolster support for himself. Agree with earlier comments that there is almost no chance he leaves before the transition. In China the safest road is almost always to err towards the politically conservative left. If Wen sensed he was in a tepid political position why would he add additional risk by penning this essay? It doesn't make sense at all to me.

My theory is that Wen is trying to bolster support for planned policy changes. Hu Yaobang is well-known to be a proponent of reform and of the youth/student demographic. The Hu/Wen administration is currently considering some difficult economic reforms (I agree, property tax is one, but only one of these) and meanwhile the problems of the unemployed recent college demographic are not going anywhere quickly. So rekindling the memories of HYB's effective governance style (which is a major focus of the piece), and promising to emulate these lessons, seems to be a way to lay the groundwork for how the leadership is going to get through a tough couple of years before 2012.
 
I'll come back on your reply there.
First, modesty is always attractive; but modesty should not blind you to reality. You may not be as "in the loop" as the very highest in Beijing, but you know an awful lot about Party factionalism. More than most Party members.

Second, you seem to be confusing two groups of people here. If Wen had a message for the central committee members, he would talk to them. They're all right there in Beijing. He can get in a room and say what he wants to say.

The purpose of publishing an article would surely be one of two things: (a) a way of talking to the much broader Party membership (and they really aren't in the loop; there's no reason to assume they can "crack the code"); or (b) a public statement which serves some kind of purpose analogous to your "nauseating displays of loyalty". Obviously not the same, as Wen's at the top.

If it's (a), then the article needs to be decodeable by a large proportion of the Party. Your difficulty in reading suggests that it isn't.

If it's (b), then we need to ponder what the value of such a display would be, given that it can't be expression of loyalty to a faction. I haven't seen a good explanation of what it might be.

So I'm left with (c): it's just an article that Wen wanted to write, and enough people decided that with HYB dead 20 years, it wouldn't be too dangerous now.
 
I think this article by Wu Zhong at Asia Times is the best out there on the subject. Basically makes the argument that Wen wants to correct the historical record before he leaves office.

http://www.atimes.com/atimes/China/LD21Ad02.html
 
Whatever his motives, Premier Wen is apparently carrying on with his one-man campaign against the system. Any comment Professor Shih about his visit to Beijing University?
 
Any comment also on Yu Keping's article on Hu Yaobang in Study Times that appeared shortly after Wen's?
 
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