Elite Chinese Politics and Political Economy

Just when we thought the BOC IPO was going to go ahead full-steam, a mini wrench has been thrown in the mix. According to the latest Caijing (see article below), the CSRC, China's stock regulator, is objecting to Huijin's desire to transfer all of its BOC state shares into H-shares after the IPO. For readers unfamiliar with this jargon, all shares of state-owned entities are originally either state shares or legal persons shares which are government shares that cannot be traded in the exchanges. After listing, it is natural for these formerly state shares to transform into circulated shares. This is what occurred in the last IPO of CCB. Furthermore, Huijin management notes that if after the IPO, Huijin's shares remain state shares, it might be problematic for them to transform them into H-shares due to an obscure "types of shareholder" clause in the securities law. Essentially, shareholders of a type of shares of a given company can make decisions concerning their own type of shares. This means that if Huijin later wants to transform state shares into H shares, the existing H-share-holders in theory can vote against Huijin's wishes to do so. I think this is pretty convincing argument for allowing Huijin to transform state shares in to H shares from the outset.

So what's CSRC's argument? Their argument is simply that no one has ever denied the majority shareholder the right to transform shares, so Huijin doesn't have to worry. Also, the state shares held by Huijin is perfectly tradable in the Hong Kong Stock Exchange once the company is listed. But still, the CSRC's argument is, well, lame. Why not allow Huijin transform the shares now? If they are afraid that CCB wouldn't be able to list in the A-share market once the A-share market starts to do better, the CCB board only has to vote to expand more shares to allow for an A-share IPO. I don't really see what the problem is.

So, there are two political scenarios, though it's way too early to say whether any of this is true. First, it is just a regular bureaucratic rivalry between CSRC and the PBOC, represented by Huijin. CSRC just wants to flex some (useless) muscle to show the PBOC that the IPO process is not automatic and that the CSRC is not just a rubber-stamper. If that's the case, a nice case of champaign and a nice banquet at Guomao for the CSRC folks will smooth things over. The second scenario is more problematic. Someone high up in the government is mobilizing the CSRC to intentionally delay the IPO. This is even too speculative for me, so we will observe some more before further speculation. But this is a situation worth watching.



中行上市遇阻“H股全流通” 证监会汇金意见相左
www.hexun.com 【2006.01.24 11:16】 财经/于宁 陈慧颖

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　　中行的上市方案需经汇金、财政部、银监会、证监会四个部门讨论后再上报国务院批准

　　相较于中国建设银行去年10月势如破竹般海外上市，中国银行的改革之路可谓坎坷不断。2005年底，中行引入战略投资者方案终于获得国务院批准后，上市方案再生枝节。此次争议在于，作为中行大股东的中央汇金投资有限公司(下称汇金公司)的股权能否全部转为H股。

　　由于对这一技术细节的处理，中国证监会和汇金存有分歧，中行此前一度明朗的上市前景再次遇到了羁绊。

　　从2005年先后在香港上市的交通银行、建设银行的情况来看，汇金公司、社保基金等机构持有的股份上市后均转换为了H股。中国建设银行2005年6月 17日与美洲银行签订战略合作协议，到6月22日递交上市申请，只花了一周的时间，其引资、上市方案一步获得国务院批准，并未受到任何阻拦。

　　循此前例，汇金公司希望中行步建行后尘，以H股全流通的模式登陆香港市场；因而在2006年1月初即传出中行上市获批、不日即将递交上市申请表的说法。不料，此次中国证监会认为，建行只能视作特例，不具备效法的意义。

　　“中行的上市方案需要经过汇金、财政部、银监会、证监会四个部门讨论后，再上报国务院批准。此外，银监会要出具监管意见书，证监会要出具允许递交上市申请的文件；之后，中行才可递交上市申请。”中国银监会监管一部主任阎庆民对《财经》说。

　　H股转换之争

　　2005年10月建行上市之际，汇金和中国建银投资有限公司所持股份均转为了全流通的H股，并且承诺五年内不出售；2005年6月交通银行上市时，全国社保基金理事会和汇金公司所持股份则在招股书载明，在发行完成后将转为H股，并同意在上市一年内不会出售，不过第一大股东财政部持有的法人股没有转成H 股。

　　在此之前，2004年6月中国平安保险(集团)股份有限公司在香港上市时，汇丰保险、高盛、摩根士丹利、日本第一生命保险四家外资公司的非上市外资股也转为H股。

　　H股转换问题在早年间似并不为人重视。1994年8月颁布的《国务院关于股份有限公司境外募集股份及上市的特别规定》、1994年9月国家证券委和国家体改委颁布的《到境外上市公司章程必备条款》，至今仍然是境外上市的基本框架性文件。其中，没有约定国有股和国有法人股不能流通，上市公司境外上市的招股书中也没有这样的约定。只有个别公司在招股书中，提到老股变现需要类别股东同意。

　　在中国证监会看来，汇金的股权不转换成H股，也不会影响其流通性。因为H股的国有法人股从来都没有受到过流通性的限制。海外市场也从来没有法人股不可流通的认知惯性，法人股流通是其持有者天经地义的权利；公司股票价格的形成，已经考虑了法人股可随时进入市场流通的预期，因此国有法人股减持不存在重大障碍。由此，证监会认为，既然汇金的国有股权性质不影响其流通性，所以没有必要转成H股。

　　不过，据《财经》了解，汇金公司对此存有疑虑，主要是担心《到境外上市公司章程必备条款》第九章规定的“类别股东表决的特别程序”，可能会带来不便。

　　所谓“类别股东”，即持有不同种类股份的股东；在涉及类别股东利益时，类别股东有权利单独召开类别股东大会，对股份的增加、减少和类别转换提出意见。也就是说，如果汇金的股份是国有法人股，转换成H股、减持股份甚至将来发行A股，都需要类别股东的同意。

　　全流通之重

　　据一位熟悉香港上市规则的法律界人士称，上市时国有法人股是否转换成H股，在操作层面上还是有所不同的。如果上市时不登记为H股，将来转换股份类别，必须由类别股东大会通过。

　　不过，证监会一位官员表示，“在成熟的资本市场，如果股东行为对公司是有利的，类别股东也不会提出反对意见。十多年来几乎没有出现过类别股东反对的例子。”

　　“汇金作为对国有银行绝对控股的公司，绝对不允许出现受制于类别股东的可能性。我们希望上市后汇金的股权就是流通的——国内都在取消非流通股，在香港为什么不一步到位呢？”汇金公司一高层人士对此提出反问。

　　今年1月初，汇金公司总经理谢平在第十届中国资本市场论坛上，解释了汇金在银行的股权上市后实现全流通的重要性：

　　其一，全流通取消了类别股的障碍，这保证了汇金的投票权和其他投票权是一样的。汇金公司的国有股权在流通性上，与战略性投资者的股权保持了一致；而这种一致性，也保持了汇金股权与所有战略投资者股权权利的一致性。

　　其二，这样也可保证外汇储备注资的流动性。H股全流通还有可能影响到未来A股上市的问题。有专家认为，汇金在建行的股权转成H股，意味着它将来只能在香港市场减持，这不会影响建行发行A股；但即使A股价格比H股价格高，汇金也无法在A股减持。当然，由于汇金对中建两行的注资是外汇储备，本来在A股变现的可能性就非常小，因此，汇金股份转成H股，主要是保证外汇储备的流动性。

　　对此，汇金的前述高管认为，应当用更为开放、前瞻的眼光来看待A股和H股的关系，“国有银行可以随时回A股上市，打通A股和H股市场，还有包括发行CDR(存托凭证)、转托管等多种方式。将来政策应该进一步突破，推进资本市场的连接，汇金在A股减持的问题可能就有多种方式。”

　　目前，证监会和汇金公司还在就H股全流通问题进行内部协商。证监会的基本观点是，H股不实行全流通，并不会对国有法人股东有任何影响，因此不必改变规则；汇金则希望不要墨守成规、自我束缚，应采取更加市场化的办法进行处理。

　　定价压力

　　中行原计划在A股上市，一方面可优化A股上市公司整体质量，令国内投资者分享投资收益，另一方面也可避免与已在香港上市的子公司中银香港(香港交易所代码：2388)之间的冲突。

　　然而，由于A股市场正在进行股权分置改革，所有融资计划只得让路，且证监会担心大规模扩容对市场带来负面影响，并不主张国有银行现在于A股市场上市，中行最终确定为发行H股。

　　2005年，建设银行以募资715亿港元，创当年全球最大规模IPO记录；2006年，中行、工行的上市，将成为香港最大规模的IPO。普华永道预计，两家银行IPO规模将超过1300亿港元，从而使2006年香港市场IPO整体规模攀至2000亿港元。

　　尽管上市行程尚未确定，关于定价的讨论已经沸反盈天。“当初建行上市定价为市净率的1.96倍，业内普遍认为偏高，但现在大家反而把它作为基准。”一位参与建行上市项目的资深投资银行家称。

　　2006年新年刚过，恒生指数创下五年来新高，建设银行(香港交易所代码：0939)、交通银行(香港交易所代码：3328)创下新高。1月19日，建设银行报收于3港元，相较于2005年10月27日上市首日开盘价，上涨了27%；交通银行收市价创4.35港元新高，较之2005年6月23日首日开盘价，上涨了55%。

　　分析人士认为，近期香港股市总体看好，得益于充足的资本；但市场环境可谓瞬息万变，中行上市时的大环境目前还很难估计。另外，中行的市场份额和盈利故事都略逊于建行，兼之建行上市之后，银行股的稀缺性亦会减少，这些都会给中行定价造成压力。

　　中行2005年中报显示，截至2005年6月30日，公司总资产为45440亿元，总负债为42833亿元，较年初分别增长6.41%和6.08%，未经审计的营业利润同比增长11.56%；不良贷款余额为1000亿元，不良贷款率为4.38%，拨备覆盖率为68.98%；境内人民币存款比年初新增 2846亿元，同比多增782亿元；贷款比年初新增1090亿元，不过同比少增540亿元，市场份额为8.05%。

　　2005年岁末，国务院批准了中行的引资方案。苏格兰皇家银行集团、瑞银集团、亚洲开发银行、淡马锡旗下的亚洲金融控股公司以及全国社保基金理事会成为中行的股东，社保基金也获准对中行和工行分别投资100亿元。据悉，日本最大的银行三菱东京UFJ银行可能在中行首次公开发行(IPO)时，购买3亿美元股份。

　　值得注意的是，战略投资者入股协议中，关于“补偿条款”(即规定对于外资入股后一定时期内发现的不良资产，中行在何种程度上予以补偿的条款)的确定又有变化。

　　银监会监管一部主任阎庆民近日称：“中行引入的战略投资者在银监会的压力下做出一些让步，补偿上限从100%下降到50%，即在外资入股三年内，在中行截至2004年底的贷款中，如果出现案件和财务真实性问题，战略投资者最多可以获得投资额50%的补偿。”

　　此前，建行的补偿上限是100%；广东发展银行则按投资额的60%为补偿上限，同时设定了补偿下限。■

Apparently, Hu Jintao vows to "revive" Marxism by pouring 100-200m RMB into it. This surely has something to do with Liu Guoguang's lambast against neo-liberal economics, mentioned in an earlier post. But why does Hu Jintao go along with it? There are several possible explanations. First, Hu wants to appease revolutionary elders by reviving Marxism, but most of the hardcore Marxists are dead, and the remaining few, like Deng Liqun, aren't all that powerful. The recently retired leadership, with the possible exception of Li Peng, is not really that Marxist. Second, he wants to signal a true departure from the Three Represents, a departure from Marxism trumpeted by his predecessor. But why, if that's the case, doesn't he go along with some kind of "people first" ideology, which is apparently what Wen is pushing for in the State Council? It's different from the Three Represents and does not sound like Hu is turning back the clock.

Finally, although I don't like simple explanations, I think in this case the revival of Marxism reflects Hu's true preference. Hu, having been raised at the zenith of Chinese communism in the 50s and 60s, truly believes in the power of Marxist-Leninism to guide China. His trumpeting of Marxism is not a sign of power insecurity, as previous hypotheses would suggest, but a sign of his security. He is now finally able to pursue that which he desires, but I am afraid the consequences won't be that desirable for China. For one, academic freedom, especially in economics departments, will be curtailed. While it will give stronger justification for Wen's welfare policies, it might also lead to more restrictive policies toward foreign capital.


SCMP

Friday, January 20, 2006
Millions pledged to revive Marxism

CARY HUANG in Beijing

After more than two decades of capitalist market reforms, Communist Party leaders have pledged "unlimited" funds for reviving Marxism on the mainland.

Sources say the programme will also involve turning the country into the global centre for studying the ideology.

Economic reforms have seen the mainland grow richer by abandoning Karl Marx's economic ideas, but President and party general secretary Hu Jintao told a Politburo meeting in November that Marxism was still applicable to the mainland.

Leaders are also keen to fill the ideological void that has emerged in a more prosperous China, and the Communist Party believes the answer lies in the ideology that gave birth to it.

During a recent meeting of the Politburo, members agreed to give sufficient financial support to a project to study and reinforce the foundations of Marxism.

Beijing will summon 3,000 top Marxist theorists and academics from across the country to the capital to compile 100 to 150 Marxism textbooks, with each work requiring contributions from at least 20 to 30 scholars.

Between 100 million and 200 million yuan has been earmarked for the programme, with more than 1 million yuan to be allocated to funding the compilation of each textbook. The project would also see a massive investment of human and financial resources go towards building more research institutes, training more theorists and producing more academic papers, the sources said.

Li Changchun , a member of the Politburo Standing Committee and the party's chief official in charge of ideology, told a meeting of propaganda officials and theorists on Monday that the leadership saw the project as instrumental to solving various issues facing the country and had given it "unlimited" support.

Last year, the Marxism Theory Research and Construction Project was launched to modernise the communist ideology.

The sources said that support from the Politburo, the secretariat of the party's Central Committee and its publicity department had ensured that hundreds of millions of yuan was earmarked for the Marxism revival campaign.

All university students are required to attend Marxism classes. Secondary school graduates are also required to sit a national examination on Marxism before university enrolment.

Another programme, also involving the allocation of millions of yuan, will see a group of leading scholars brought together to produce about 100 works of global influence and translate them into several foreign languages. There are also plans to produce new translations of foreign Marxist literature on the mainland.

To promote academic exchanges, the government has also approved funding for academic institutions to host several international seminars on Marxism.

The Academy of Marxism at Shanghai's Finance and Economics University will host an international seminar in the city on April 1, and the newly established Academy of Marxism at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a top central government think-tank, will host another next year.

A detailed summary of Premier's Wen Jiabao's speech at the annual Central Agricultural Conference in December was just published in the official press yesterday. This is highly unusual since only brief summaries of top leaders' speeches at these work conferences are published usually. In this, a highly detailed summary was published, outlining Wen's policy priorities with respect to the "three agriculture" problem. The priorities, roughly, are as follow: rural infrastructure, rural governance reform, maintaining grain production, rural land confiscation, migrant workers' rights, and the expansion of rural public goods. The New York Times and other western publications rightly focused on Wen's harsh criticism against land confiscation, which has caused numerous incidents of rural unrests.

We also see another indication of Wen's worries about grain prices and their effect on "food security" and rural welfare. Wen states "first, the basic gurantee on the provision of food domestically is our ultimate aim; second, our effort to maintain the tight balance between food supply and demand is a goal of macro-adjustments." This goes back to our previous discussion on the impact of Wen's rural concern on likely revaluation level. If the goal of macro-adjustments, including exchange rate policies, is to maintain farmers' incentive to plant grain, then revaluation will in no way be a rapid process.

More broadly speaking, the publication of this speech constitutes a sort of "campaign promise" by Wen on rural issues in the run-up to the 17th Party Congress next year. Although he is almost certain to win a second term, he wants to play the publicity card again by promising a better future for China's farmers, which number in the hundreds of millions. If Wen is able to achieve much of what he wants, China will indeed be a very different place 7 years from now when he steps down.

关于当前农业和农村工作的几个问题——温家宝总理在中央农村工作会议上的讲话摘要



日期：2006-01-20 来源：新华社 作者：

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　　党的十六届五中全会提出了推进社会主义新农村建设的任务，具有重大的历史意义和现实意义。我国在总体上已经进入以工促农、以城带乡的发展阶段，我们必须适应经济社会发展新阶段的要求，实行工业反哺农业、城市支持农村的方针。在现阶段，只有实行统筹城乡经济社会发展的方略，才能切实优化经济结构，实现全面协调可持续发展，才能使广大人民群众共享经济社会发展的成果，才能如期实现全面建设小康社会和现代化的宏伟目标。因此，建设社会主义新农村，不仅关系到农业、农村的发展和农民的富裕，而且关系到实现国家的长治久安和民族的伟大复兴。必须站在全局的高度，把建设社会主义新农村作为我们在现代化进程中的一项重要历史使命，使之成为全党全社会的共同认识和共同行动。

　　建设社会主义新农村，必须按照十六届五中全会《建议》提出的“生产发展、生活宽裕、乡风文明、村容整洁、管理民主”的要求，全面推进农村的经济、政治、文化、社会和党的建设。要认真贯彻党在农村的一系列方针政策，坚持农村基本经济制度，坚持“多予少取放活”，特别是要在“多予”上下功夫。经过全党全国坚持不懈的努力，使农业生产力水平有一个较大的提高，使广大农民的生活有比较明显的改善，使农村基础设施建设得到切实加强，使农村各项社会事业全面发展，使农村基层民主建设继续推进。归根到底，要切实保障农民的民主权利，使农民得到实实在在的物质利益。建设社会主义新农村，是一个全面的目标，是一项长期的任务，必须因地制宜，从实际出发，尊重农民意愿，注重实效，着力解决农民生产生活中最迫切的实际问题。只有这样，才能使新农村建设带给农民实惠、受到农民拥护，扎实稳步地推向前进。

　　下面，我就当前“三农”工作中必须引起高度重视的问题，讲几点意见。

　　一、关于农村基础设施建设问题

　　长期以来，我国城乡经济社会发展很不平衡。城市发展很快，农村发展滞后。从经济社会发展全局考虑，必须改变这种状况。这就要求我们从思想认识到工作部署都必须有一个大的转变，要扩大公共财政覆盖农村的范围，调动各方面投入的积极性，大力加强农村基础设施建设。这不仅会改善农村的基础设施条件，提高农业的综合生产能力，而且会增加农民的就业机会和收入，是一举多得的好事情，要作为今后几年基础设施建设的重点。力争通过“十一五”时期的努力，使农村生产生活条件和整体面貌有比较明显的变化。在这方面，2006年要迈出更大的步伐。

　　首先，财政性建设资金要向农村倾斜。关键是要下决心调整国民收入分配格局，特别是调整国家建设资金的投向和结构，向更多地支持农村建设转变。这是今后几年经济工作的一个战略性举措，直接关系到促进农村经济社会的发展，关系到扩大国内需求，对国家的长期发展也将产生深远的影响。2006年，国家财政支农资金的增量要高于上年，国债和预算内建设资金用于农村建设的比重要高于上年，其中直接用于改善农村生产生活条件的资金总量要高于上年。各地区各部门尤其是基础产业和公共服务部门，要更多地关注和支持农村，把工作重心逐步地转向农村，把掌握的资源更多地投向农村，把基础设施建设重点转向农村。在制定发展规划、安排建设项目、增加资金投入时都要向农村倾斜。有条件的地方，步子要迈得更大一些。各部门要相互配合，加大支农资金协调整合的力度，提高使用效率，集中力量办大事。各类金融机构也要调整信贷投放结构，切实改善金融服务，加强对“三农”的支持。

　　其次，要重视发挥城市对农村的带动作用。实行市管县体制的初衷，就是为了发挥城市的带动效应，促进城乡协调发展。经过这些年的建设，城市经济实力和财力大为增强，基础设施建设有很大改善，城市面貌日新月异。但也要看到，城乡差距在明显拉大。今后，各大中城市都要切实履行市带县、市帮县的责任，通盘制定城乡发展规划，加大市级财政性建设资金对郊区和所属县乡的投入，加大公共基础设施向农村的延伸，同时组织城市有关单位和企业帮扶农村，增强城市对农村的辐射和带动作用，形成城乡协调发展、共同繁荣的局面。

　　第三，要充分发挥农民和社会各方面的作用。加强农村基础设施建设，要充分调动广大农民群众的积极性，引导他们发扬自力更生、艰苦奋斗的精神，通过自己的辛勤劳动改善生产生活条件。同时，国家财政要通过直接补助资金、补助原材料或“以奖代补”等方式给予鼓励，引导农民对直接受益的公共设施建设投工投劳。要加快建立全社会参与的激励机制，鼓励各种社会力量参与农村基础设施建设。

　　二、关于农村综合改革问题

　　2006年全面取消农业税，农村税费改革走到今天这一步很不容易，但巩固成果的任务更为艰巨。全面推进以乡镇机构、农村义务教育和县乡财政体制改革为主要内容的农村综合改革，既是巩固农村税费改革成果的紧迫任务，又是解决农村一系列深层次矛盾的关键所在。千万不要以为农业税取消后，农民负担问题就从此解决了。如果改革不彻底，我们可能面临两种严重情况：一种是各种乱收费乱摊派乱罚款卷土重来，农民负担出现反弹；一种是基层组织难以正常运转，无法履行应尽的职责。防止这个问题，必须坚定不移地将农村综合改革推向前进。只有大力推进乡镇机构改革，下决心转变职能，精简机构和人员，加快事业单位整合，妥善安排分流人员，从体制机制上解决农村上层建筑的某些环节不适应经济基础的问题，才能最终走出“黄宗羲定律”的怪圈。这与取消农业税本身相比，任务更艰巨，意义更深远。

　　我着重讲一下乡镇机构改革问题。推进乡镇机构改革的出发点和目的，是为了转变乡镇政府职能，加强社会管理和公共服务，说到底是为了更好地发挥行政效能，更好地为“三农”服务。乡镇机构该履行的职能、该提供的服务，不仅不能削弱，还要逐步加强。乡镇机构改革要按照“统一思想、明确方向，坚定不移、有序推进，积极稳妥、试点先行”的总体要求，做到机构编制只减不增和确保社会稳定。在乡镇机构改革试点中，要着力抓好三方面的工作：

　　一是抓转变职能，努力建设服务型、法制型政府。要按照有所为、有所不为的原则，适当调整乡镇在经济管理上的职能。切实把工作重点从直接抓招商引资、生产经营、催种催收等具体事务转到对农户和各类经济主体进行示范引导、提供政策服务以及营造发展环境上来。同时要努力提高社会管理和公共服务水平。按照依法行政的原则，宣传、落实好党和国家的政策、法律，规范自身的行为，保障农民的合法权益，维护农村社会稳定，巩固党在农村的执政基础。

　　二是抓事业单位整合与改革。关键是要合理区分公益性事业和经营性活动，实行分类管理。公益性的，要强化服务功能，经费主要由财政保障；经营性的，要强化自我发展能力，逐步走向市场。要通过整合现有事业站所，提高服务资源的利用效率，做到既减轻农民负担，又增强为农服务能力。

　　三是妥善安排分流人员。这在乡镇机构改革中既是重要环节，又是难点问题。要在严格定编定岗的基础上，由省级政府统一制定政策、方案和操作程序，根据公开、公平、公正的原则择优选用、竞争上岗，严禁搞暗箱操作。要积极探索多种分流方式，帮助分流人员重新就业，妥善解决他们的实际问题。

　　各级党委和政府必须高度重视农村综合改革工作，主要领导同志要亲自抓。有关部门要抓紧总结试点经验，不断完善方案，把改革引向深入。同时，还要继续推进农村金融体制、粮食流通体制和征地制度等改革，为农村经济社会发展提供体制保障。

　　三、关于粮食问题

　　粮食始终是经济发展、社会稳定和国家自立的基础，任何时候都不能出现闪失。近两年，中央针对前几年粮食生产连年下滑、供求关系趋紧的情况，出台了一系列更直接、更有力的扶持政策措施。主要是实行“三减免、三补贴”，加强对粮食主产区的扶持，同时坚决推进粮食流通体制改革，全面放开粮食收购市场。实践证明，这些改革和政策是正确的，作用是明显的。粮食生产出现了重大转机，对防止通货膨胀、保障人民生活、保持社会稳定发挥了重要作用，为实现宏观调控目标创造了有利条件。

　　但要清醒地看到，当前粮食生产的基础并不稳固。这两年粮食产需仍然存在一定缺口，每年都要挖几百亿斤库存。从今后长期趋势看，我国人口增长、耕地减少、水资源短缺的矛盾将越来越突出，粮食增产的难度越来越大，保持粮食长期供求平衡的任务十分艰巨。粮食如果出问题，就是全局性的问题，就会影响经济平稳较快发展和社会稳定。在粮食问题上必须把握两点：一是基本立足国内保障粮食供给，这是要始终坚持的方针；二是努力保持粮食供求的紧平衡，这是宏观调控的目标。粮食产量过低，粮食安全就会受到威胁。粮食供大于求，就会造成粮价下跌，影响农民收入和粮食生产稳定发展。使粮食供求保持紧平衡不是一件容易的事情，最根本的是要加强粮食综合生产能力建设，加强国家粮食储备体系建设，做到藏粮于地和藏粮于库相结合。同时还要善于把握吞吐调节和粮食进出口的时机和力度，加强和改进对粮食市场的调控。

　　2006年的粮食生产存在一些不利因素。市场价格是刺激农民种粮积极性的最主要因素，但保持粮价平稳或略有回升难度很大。由于农资价格上涨，使粮食生产效益有所下降，直接影响农民种粮积极性。建设用地每年仍以400万亩的速度在占用耕地，而且占的多是好地，增加粮食播种面积的余地越来越小。这两年粮食连续增产与气候总体有利有很大关系，2006年气候条件还难以预测，一遇天灾粮食产量就可能下来。另外，由于连续两年丰收，一些地方不同程度地对粮食生产有所放松。这些问题都值得我们注意。促进粮食生产的稳定和发展，关键有两条：一要认真落实最严格的耕地保护制度，切实保护好基本农田，稳定粮食播种面积，加强农田水利建设，大力推进科技进步，不断提高粮食综合生产能力；二要认真落实扶持粮食生产的各项政策措施，保持合理的粮价水平，保护种粮农民利益，调动农民种粮积极性。

　　四、关于土地问题

　　加强土地管理，是改革和发展进程中必须始终把握好的一个关键环节。这既关系到农业的发展和农村的稳定，又关系到工业化、城镇化的可持续推进。在土地问题上，我们决不能犯历史性错误。

　　要坚持土地基本经营制度不动摇。我国的改革首先从农村开始，而农村的改革又发端于土地承包。土地承包调动了亿万农民的积极性，促进了农村和整个经济的繁荣。承包地不仅是农民重要的生产资料，而且是农民最基本的生活保障。以家庭承包经营为基础、统分结合的双层经营体制，具有广泛的适应性和旺盛的生命力，有利于而不妨碍农业现代化的推进。在家庭承包经营的基础上，可以通过产业化经营等方式引导农民进入市场，可以在土地承包经营权自愿、依法、有偿流转的基础上逐步扩大土地的经营规模。这是一个渐进的过程，不能不顾条件强制推行。稳定农村基本经营制度，保护农民的土地承包权益，是党在农村的基本政策，是国家宪法的规定，是一项必须长期坚持的方针。

　　要严格控制建设占地。近些年，大量农用地转为非农用地，不仅为工业和城市发展提供了土地资源，而且通过土地征用和出让，为城市建设筹集了大量资金，这是一些地方城市建设之所以能快速发展的一个重要原因。但这也是以对农民补偿偏低、牺牲大批良田为代价的。如果不清醒地看到这一点，就会盲目圈占耕地，使投资规模膨胀和投资结构失衡，并产生大量失地农民，给农村和整个经济社会的可持续发展和稳定带来严重的问题。因此，我们在宏观调控中启用了土地和信贷两个“闸门”，其中土地这个闸门对抑制部分地区、部分行业投资过热具有釜底抽薪的作用，既控制了投资的盲目过快增长，也保护了最珍贵的土地资源，效果是显著的。但我们也必须看到，现在固定资产投资反弹的压力仍然很大，一些地方占用土地的冲动仍然十分强烈，保护耕地特别是保护基本农田的任务仍然十分艰巨。特别需要指出的是，一些地方违法征占农民耕地，不给农民合理的经济补偿和生计安置，引发农村群体性事件，仍然是影响农村乃至社会不稳定的一个突出问题，必须引起各级党委和政府的高度重视。我们要长期坚持最严格的土地管理制度，严格控制建设用地的占用规模。严格执行耕地占补平衡制度，而且决不能搞账面平衡，必须做到面积和产能的双平衡。

　　要依法加强土地管理。无论是土地承包、流转，还是土地征收征用，我们都已经有了比较完备的法律法规。要充分运用法律手段管好土地，切实保障农民的土地财产权利。

　　五、关于农民工问题

　　农民工已成为我国产业工人的重要组成部分，是工业化、城镇化、现代化的重要推动力量。如何对待农民工，不是一件小事，而是关系全局和长远的大事。

　　近几年来，中央在改善农民进城务工环境、保护农民工权益等方面，出台了一系列政策措施，收到了一定成效。但农民工工资偏低、被克扣和拖欠，劳动条件差，享受公共服务少，缺乏基本社会保障等问题仍然很突出。这些问题，不仅大中城市存在，一些小城市和小城镇乃至在乡村的企业中也很突出。各地区各部门要切实把解决好农民工问题作为事关改革发展稳定全局的一件大事来抓。解决农民工问题要坚持五条原则：一是公平对待，一视同仁；二是强化管理，完善服务；三是统筹规划，合理引导；四是因地制宜，分类指导；五是立足当前，着眼长远。当前要重点抓好以下几项工作：

　　第一，抓紧解决农民工工资偏低和拖欠问题。这是农民工反映最强烈的问题。要建立农民工工资支付保障制度，确保农民工工资按时足额发放。合理确定和提高农民工工资水平，严格执行最低工资制度。第二，依法规范农民工劳动管理。所有用人单位招用农民工都必须依法订立并履行劳动合同，尊重和维护农民工的合法权益。特别要依法保障农民工职业安全卫生权益。第三，搞好农民工就业服务和培训。要清理和取消各种针对农民工的歧视性规定和不合理限制，真正做到一视同仁。加强农民工职业技能培训，提高农民转移就业能力和外出适应能力。第四，积极稳妥地解决农民工社会保障问题。这个问题比较复杂，要坚持分类指导，稳步推进，优先解决工伤保险和大病医疗保障问题。第五，切实为农民工提供公共服务和社会管理。特别要保障农民工子女平等接受义务教育。第六，健全维护农民工权益的保障机制。劳动保障和有关部门要加大维护农民工权益的执法力度，认真受理农民工举报投诉并及时调查处理。坚持农村基本经营制度，保障农民工土地承包权益。第七，促进农村劳动力就地就近转移就业。实行农村劳动力异地转移与就地转移相结合，既要积极引导农民进城务工，又要大力发展乡镇企业和县域经济，扩大农村劳动力在当地转移就业。要鼓励各地区从实际出发，探索促进农村富余劳动力合理有序流动的办法。

　　六、关于农村社会事业发展问题

　　长期以来，我们在经济与社会发展中存在着一条腿长、一条腿短的问题，而农村社会发展这条腿更短。农村教育、卫生等社会事业发展滞后，公共服务严重不足，是农村发展中最薄弱的环节，也是农民反映最强烈的问题。这两年我们在农村教育和卫生方面已采取了不少措施，成效很大，但问题依然突出。加快农村社会事业发展，对于提高广大农民的生活质量和综合素质，对于实现社会公平和正义，十分紧迫和重要。

　　要从多方面加强农村公共服务，增加对农村教育、卫生等社会事业的投入。各级政府都要认真落实国务院关于将每年新增教育、卫生、文化等事业经费主要用于农村的规定，促进义务教育和基本医疗等服务的平等化。让每个义务教育阶段的农民子女都能上得起学，让每个患病的农民都能得到治疗，这是我们应当努力实现的目标。从2006年起，用两年时间在全国范围内实现农村义务教育阶段学生全部免除学杂费，并继续对贫困家庭学生免费提供课本和补助寄宿生生活费。2006年还将加大对新型农村合作医疗制度试点工作的推进力度，较大幅度提高中央和地方财政对参加合作医疗农民的补助标准，扩大合作医疗试点县范围，争取到2008年在全国农村基本普及。同时，要重视教育、卫生资源在城乡之间的合理配置。完善教师交流制度，制定相关政策和措施，引导和鼓励城市教师及具备教师资格的人员到农村中小学任教。鼓励城市医生到农村服务。

　　以上这些问题，都是“三农”工作所面临的突出问题，也是关系全局的重大问题。如果解决得好，农业和农村就会实现又快又好的发展，整个经济和社会发展也会有一个良好的基础。目前，中央关于农村工作的大政方针已经明确，政策措施陆续出台。能否取得预期效果，关键在于统一思想、加强领导、狠抓落实。各地区各部门必须充分认识“三农”工作对全局的重大意义，切实把解决好“三农”问题作为全部工作的重中之重，领导干部要经常到农村做全面深入的调查研究，真正掌握农村的真实情况，了解农民的愿望和要求，认真研究制定和落实促进农村发展的具体措施。

　　解决“三农”问题难度很大、任务艰巨，但也面临着难得的历史机遇。我们要在以胡锦涛同志为总书记的党中央正确领导下，坚持以邓小平理论和“三个代表”重要思想为指导，全面落实科学发展观，以对党和人民高度负责的精神，切实增强责任感和使命感，求真务实，开拓进取，扎实工作，推动城乡经济社会协调发展，为建设社会主义新农村作出更大贡献。


New York Times

Chinese Premier Says Seizing Peasants' Land Provokes Unrest


By JOSEPH KAHN
Published: January 21, 2006

SHANGHAI, Jan. 20 - Land grabs by officials eager to cash in on China's booming economy are provoking mass unrest in the countryside and amount to a "historic error" that could threaten national stability, Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said in comments published Friday.

His message underscored the increasing urgency of the government's campaign to curb abuses against peasants and migrant workers, roughly two-thirds of China's 1.3 billion people, who have relatively little to show for one of the most spectacular economic expansions in history.

Mass uprisings and riots over pollution, corruption and seizures of farm land have risen sharply in recent years and prompted growing worries in Beijing that economic growth alone is no longer enough to ensure social stability and the Communist Party's grip on power.

"We absolutely cannot commit a historic error over land problems," Mr. Wen said in an address delivered to a party meeting in late December and released in Chinese newspapers on Friday. "In some areas, illegal seizures of farmland without reasonable compensation have provoked uprisings. This is still a key source of instability in rural areas and even the whole society."

His statement amounted to a blunt admission that efforts by Mr. Wen and President Hu Jintao to address the country's yawning wealth gap and improve conditions for the majority of China's people had fallen far short of their goals, despite being a centerpiece of government policy for three years.

Local officials operate with impunity in the one-party state and have little to fear from a legal system that answers to the party. Endless exhortations by central government leaders to pay more attention to inequality have done little to address the root causes of the wealth gap and surging social unrest, Chinese and Western political experts say.

Mr. Wen said the fast-paced expansion of China's cities had involved "reckless occupation of farmland" and the sacrifice of fertile acreage in a country that strives to produce enough to feed itself without relying heavily on imports. The government said in 2004 that new factories, housing, offices and shopping malls had consumed about 5 percent of the total arable land in the previous seven years.

Such warnings are not new, and Mr. Wen did not announce any fresh steps to curtail land seizures, which many experts say stem from deep-seated problems in the way China manages land.

In the last two years China abolished taxes on peasants and staple farm crops, relieving one historic source of grievance in the countryside. But even that advance, Mr. Wen said, risks being undermined by local officials who impose "arbitrary fees" on farmers.

Average rural incomes are less than one-third of urban incomes and are growing more slowly. The wages of rural migrant workers, the backbone of China's giant construction industry and its surging factories that make goods for export, have stagnated for a decade despite nearly double-digit economic growth.

Meanwhile, the cost of health care and education have soared, making secondary education and basic medical treatment unaffordable luxuries for hundreds of millions of people.

Mr. Wen mentioned all of those problems in his address and said the government must make raising rural living standards a top priority.

"In the final analysis, we must protect the democratic rights and provide material benefits to rural citizens," he said. "Improving rural quality of life and ensuring social fairness and justice are extremely important and urgent tasks."

Peasants are not allowed to own the land that they farm and have little say if the government decides to sell it for commercial development. Compensation is assessed according to complex formulas but rarely approaches the market value of the land, leaving many feeling disenfranchised by the development around them.

Noted economist and now entrepreneur Nouriel Roubini recently predicted a 10% RMB revaluation in 2006 (see quote below). I would have to respectfully disagree with him. While there will be revaluation in 2006, the magnitude will be much smaller than his prediction. My reasoning, briefly, is two-fold. First, there are powerful interests within the Chinese government against large-scale revaluation. Chiefly, I remain convinced that Premier Wen is against it because his main policy focus is a rise in rural welfare. In order to maintain the income of domestic farmers without a transitional disruption, RMB cannot appreciate too quickly, or domestic consumers would have a strong incentive to buy grain from abroad. His other main policy priority is maintaining employment, and a 10% revaluation would definitely have a marginal impact on that.

Is China going to worry about US protectionist measures? Sure they are, but they surely will not act until the threat of protectionism becomes credible. Right now, it remains unclear how far protectionists will get, as Roubini points out. Even with protectionist measures, China will still not move as dramatically as 10% because China will not appear as if it is caving in to foreign pressure. Neither Hu or Wen can afford to appear as such.

So how large will the revaluation be in the coming year? My guess is that it will be between 2.5% to 3.5%. They are allowing private banks to serve as market makers in the forex market, which gives the PBOC room to allow the RMB to slowly creep upward over the course of the year. There is an outside chance that US pressure will result in a revaluation of 5%, but that is the upper tail of the probability distribution. At the lower end, if there is a world wide recession (Roubini's other prediction), China might choose to slow revaluation below 2.5% to maintain the competitiveness of Chinese goods.

From: http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/113485

"- China will allow its currency to appreciate by at least 10% and the rest of Asia, including Japan, will follow. In 2005, China moved its currency by 2.1% and then effectively repegged it - in spite of otherwise claims of more exchange rate flexibility. Thus, China continued to be the core of the BW2 periphery, maintaining this system of vendor financing of the US twin deficits alive. In 2006 China will move its currency by at least 10% for various reasons. First, protectionist pressures in the US will lead to a China move. If China has to choose between a 27% tariff slapped on its exports to the US or a 10% RMB appreciation that prevents this, it will go for the latter. Of course, chances of Schumer-Graham being voted, overrule a presidential veto and become law and then successfully avoid a WTO challenge are low. But, still China cannot afford having Schumer-Graham even being voted positively or having the US Treasury brand it as a "currency manipulator" in the spring assessment of its exchange rate regime. Thus, it will do what is necessary to avoid these politically dangerous outcomes. There are also domestic reasons - that I fleshed out in detail in the past - why China will move: the large expected losses on a fast rising stock of U.S dollar reserves; the need and desire to diversify such reserve holdings towards non-US dollar assets; the financial and real imbalances that partially sterilized intervention is causing in the Chinese economy such as the continuation of the credit, asset, investment and real estate bubble that risk causing a hard landing of the Chinese economy. So, China will realize that it is in its own interest to move its currency by a significant amount to engineer a soft landing - as opposed to a hard landing - of its economy. Note that, if China moves, the rest of Asia will also move. It is true that Chinese and Asian forex intervention in the last few months has been more moderate than in the early part of 2005 or in 2004 as the US dollar has been strong and the costs of dollar-shorting carry trades higher; but the factors that were keeping the dollar strong in 2005 are already fizzling out putting more appreciation pressure on China and other Asian currencies such as the Korean won or the Japanese yen. So, once China moves, the market reaction will be one of pressures towards Asian currencies revaluation of similar size as the Chinese one. And with the Yuan stronger, other Asians will be more comfortable to let their currencies appreciate as well. So, see the yen moving towards 100 by year end."

Chinese politics can be so logical sometimes. Remember at the end of the last posting, I asked "The big question is whether SASAC will get something back in return for letting go of these assets." Well, the SASAC recently announced that it will make the operational budget for major SOEs next year. Traditionally, MOF's Department of Enterprise had a big hand in SOE budget making, since they are state entities. However, SASAC is now making the argument that since SOEs are legal persons instead of state agencies, the MOF should not have a hand in their budgeting. Rather, share-holders, ie. the SASAC, should make their budgets. The MOF is incensed about this, and this will surely be kicked up to the Premier's desk.

As seen in the article, SASAC has made clear its demand from the MOF. Now, a round of hard bargaining will ensue. Both MOF and SASAC agree that large SOEs, which are extremely profitable monopolies, need to hand more profit to "the state." The problem is how the money will be split. SASAC wants to use the budgeting issue to establish its own source of (extra-budgetary) funding through SOE profit, while MOF is constantly on a prowl for more fiscal resources. I suspect the end result will be something like this: MOF will get dividend from 10-20% of the state assets, including at least one oil company. In the mean time, SASAC will retain full control over personnel and sales of SOE assets for all SOEs. It will, however, have to split budgeting with MOF. I suspect the Huijin model will be instructive here. Basically, MOF and SASAC will send board members to control large holding companies that run state assets. MOF representation will vary between these companies. We'll see what happens.

国资委“经营”收益权

21世纪经济报道 　2005-12-31 15:32:30




　　谋划6000亿央企利润　国有资本预算2006年试编
　　国资委“经营”收益权
　　
　　本报记者　段晓燕　北京报道
　　
　　记者了解到，中央企业预算工作方案，由国资委产权局和统计评价局牵头负责，将选择部分中央企业作为试点单位，方案已经上报到国务院。
　　
　　“2006年开始，国资委将正式试编中央企业国有资本经营预算。”2005年12月22日，国资委主任李荣融在国务院新闻办公室发布会上告诉本报记者。
　　2005年12月25日的中央企业负责人工作会议上，李荣融明确地向与会人员表示，国资委已经形成了预算编制的初步工作方案。
　　“能源和电信等国有独资、企业经营良好、盈利丰厚、公司治理结构较为完善的部分中央企业，将率先考虑列入首批试点单位。”国资委一位相关人士告诉记者。
　　但财政部企业司制度处一位人士告诉记者，到2005年12月29日为止，财政部没有接到任何要求改变现有财政预算体系的文件或口头通知。
　　
　　国企经营预算思路
　　记者了解到，中央企业预算工作方案，由国资委产权局和统计评价局牵头负责，将选择部分中央企业作为试点单位方
　　案已上报到国务院。
　　据悉，自2003年底开始，国有资本经营预算体制纳入正式议程，从课题研究，到立案讨论，前前后后已经历时一年多。2005年下半年，初步形成了国有资本经营预算的工作框架。之前，国资委国有资本预算是否会独立于财政部单独而立，一直存在争议。
　　“国有资本经营预算的本质是出资人的财务预算，而不是政府预算，也不是企业的财务预算，因此不存在是否取代或独立于财政部的问题。”一位国资委人士告诉记者。
　　记者了解到，目前国资委方面明确提出：国有资本经营预算以效率为中心，关注国有资本的实际回报，并以此为枢纽来进行国有经济局部和结构的调整、推动国有企业改制重组、配合国家实现社会保障方面的战略意图，促进国资委以透明、规范的方式向国家提交国有经济运行质量的答卷。
　　“企业化经营与行政化的管理界限模糊，公共财政与国有企业经营收益混杂，是过去国有企业中存在的一个典型问题，这个问题不解决，很难实现政企分开的改革宗旨，”国务院发展研究中心一位专家认为。国研中心是此次国资委预算方案课题的研究方。
　　因而，此次国有资本经营预算方案中，企业经营预算下企业行政职能和公共管理预算分开执行。
　　据了解，有关国有企业政策性破产、分离“办社会”职能的支出以及国企债务融资的收入和支出，将不予列入经营性预算范围，而归财政部管理的公共预算范围。
　　
　　管人管事管资产
　　此次预算体系中最大的一个突破，是要求中央企业上缴红利。
　　“从1994年开始，国有企业就停止向国家财政上缴利润和分红，财政部曾几次努力，希望将分红体制恢复起来。”财政部企业司人士告诉记者。他对国资委要求企业上缴红利的做法表示支持，“在这个方面，财政部和国资委的立场是一致的，中央企业的所有者是国家，自然要向国家上缴盈利”。
　　按照李荣融在2005年12月25的中央企业负责人工作会议上透露的情况，2005年中央企业的利润将高达6000亿元。
　　如此高额的利润，除了上缴税收之外，并未向国家上缴经营利润，因此，国家作为所有者、出资人，要求企业分红越来越强烈。
　　国资委方面人士认为，今时今日的中央企业，和10年前“无利可交、无红可分”已经是天壤之别。经过过去多年的改革重组，加上中央国有企业的规模优势、技术优势、政策优势，中央企业的盈利优势已经显现。
　　另外，许多企业通过分拆改制等方式，对主要资产、核心业务都进行了现代企业制度改革甚至实现了上市，此时提出分红，合理合法。
　　“管人管事管资产”，这是国务院对国资委的一个定位，但一直以来，由于“囊中羞涩”，国资委没有自己的财权，在“管”的许多方面都只能是“务虚”，难以“做实”。李荣融也表示，国资委成立以来，最大的权没有落实的，就是收益权。
　　此次预算方案中，对预算来源和支出做了严格规范和限制。
　　在来源方面，主要来自国有企业上缴的利润和国有股应得的股息红利、出售国有企业或国有股所产生的收入、经过政府批准的一些基金收入、公共财政转入的资金以及理财所产生的收入，如利息等。
　　支出方面以四类为主：国企改制重组成本支出、对现有出资企业补充资本金的支出、向社保基金转移性支出、向公共财政的转移性支出。
　　“要合理吸纳，也要合理利用，我们将本着‘严出’的原则，建立一套透明规范的国有资本预算监督和约束体系。”国资委相关人士表示。