Tuesday, September 23, 2008
51 year old Jiang Chaoliang, formerly the chairman of BOCOM, was just appointed vice secretary and likely CEO of China Development Bank, making him likely replacement of aging Chen Yuan. Like Chen Yuan, Jiang was a technocrat who was appreciated by Zhu Rongji, as he enjoyed steady promotions under Zhu. Although not known to be innovative or daring, he oversaw one of the better banks in China, BOCOM. When he does take over CDB in a year or two from now, CDB's balance sheet might not be as good as it is now. I think this is the main reason why it wants to list as quickly as possible to shore up capital.
蒋超良履新国开行
http://www.jrj.com 2008年09月23日 23:38 21世纪经济报道
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华丽转身。
9月23日傍晚时分，交通银行（601328行情,爱股,资讯)董事会发布公告——“蒋超良先生因工作调动，请求辞任本行董事长、非执行董事和董事会战略委员会主任委员职务。蒋先生的辞任自董事会委任其接任者起生效。董事会预期将在本周内宣布接任者的情况。”
寥寥百余字的公告，留给人们的是无尽遐想。
是日，国家开发银行官网发布信息称，有关方面最近对国家开发银行股份有限公司主要领导进行了任命：陈元同志任党委书记，蒋超良同志、姚中民同志任党委副书记。有关董事长、副董事长、行长和监事长的任职按相关法律法规履行程序后办理。
而当日，多位接近国开行的知情人士向本报记者透露，有关部门已赴国开行宣布了蒋超良担任行长一职。
演绎交行模式
在执掌交行帅印之前，蒋超良这个名字对中国金融圈内的行家里手来说也并不陌生，因为在2002年9月担任湖北省副省长之前，蒋超良曾担任中国人民银行行长助理兼办公厅主任、党委办公室主任。
2003年7月，交行摸索出一套全面而务实的银行整体改革方案，这也是后来广为流传的财务重组、引资、上市三部曲。
2004年1月6日，国务院正式公布中行和建行实施股份制改造试点的决定。但探路者的责任更大，它的成败关乎中国整个金融业能否平稳安全着陆，所以，交行三部曲的每一步都走得十分艰辛。
正是在这样的关键时刻，一场高层人事变动在悄无声息中酝酿成熟。
2004年5月末，交银大厦46层的董事长办公室迎来了它的新主人。很多人都记得第一次见到他的印象。他看起来不过40岁出头，深蓝色西服精致笔挺，领口扎着代表喜庆的红色领带，是典型的银行家装扮。
就在蒋超良履新交行不足月余，2004年6月中旬，因为交行爆发了一系列风险事件，汇丰打算结束与交行近4个月的“亲密接触”，向交行提出准备“分手”。
此时，蒋超良亲自出手。2004年6月20日中午，时任汇丰控股（行情,资讯,评论）CEO的葛霖应蒋超良的邀请，来到北京东方君悦酒店，这原本被视为一顿“散伙饭”，吃完之后，汇丰将不再与交行继续谈判，而交行引进境外战投一事也将搁浅。
然而，“散伙饭”后不到12小时，双方再续前缘。最终，汇丰以每股1.86元的价格获得当时交行19.9％的股权。
一年后的2005年6月23日上午10点，香港联合证券交易所，代码为3328的交通银行（行情,资讯,评论）以2.8港元开盘。2007年5月15日，交行回归A股市场。
“三部曲”取得成功后，蒋超良审时度势地提出了转型目标。交行董事会制定了五个转型方向：国际公众持股银行、创新型银行、综合性银行、集约化经营型银行、国际先进管理型银行。
亟待推进股改
2008年是国开行改革发展史上的又一个关键时期。
原国开行行长陈元表示，“开行将沿着向商业银行改革转型之路继续前行，陆续确定和实施改革方案；我们将主动适应经济金融形势的变化，努力挖掘自身优势，取长补短，走出一条不同于传统商业银行的发展之路”。
在一位金融专家看来，目前，国开行的业务模式相对成熟，当务之急便是推进股份制改革，而股份制改革的核心内容又无非是财务重组、引进战略投资者、上市“三部曲”。
“国有大行‘三部曲’的缔造者正是交行，在交行之后，建行、中行、工行的‘三部曲’相继取得成功。”前述银行人士称。
对于“三部曲”，蒋超良熟门熟路。上述银行人士称，在交行模式的几个重大环节上，蒋超良均发挥了非常关键的作用，如引进汇丰、拍板联交所上市等。
前述金融专家也表示，在蒋超良进入国开行管理层之后，将在国开行股份制改造中承担重任，充分发挥在交行的工作经验，推进国开行股改工作。
在交行，蒋超良是战略决策者；而履新国开行后，虽然在股改阶段需要蒋的交行经验，其角色可能更为多元，但未来，蒋超良依然需要直面经营者这一新角色的挑战。
因此，在交行始终强调稳健经营的蒋超良，如何强化国开行的经营管理，各方将拭目以待。
蒋超良
1957年8月生，湖南汨罗人。
1981年加入中国共产党。
1974年12月加工作。在职研究生学历。
1974年12月为湖南省岳阳地区工艺美术厂工人。
1978年8月在湖南财经学院学习。
1981年8月任中国农业银行计划部干部、计划部货币流通处副处长、资金计划部计划处副处长、资金计划部计划处处长、综合计划部主任助理。
1989年11月任中国农业银行青岛市分行崂山区办事处副主任、中国农业银行青岛市分行副行长。
1991年3月任中国农业银行综合计划部副主任、综合计划部主任、国际业务部总经理。
1996年4月任中国人民银行银行司副司长(1993年9月-1996年7月在西南财经大学金融系货币银行学专业在职研究生学习)。
1997年3月任中国人民银行深圳分行行长、党组(委)书记兼国家外汇管理局深圳分局局长。1998年11月任中国人民银行广州分行行长、党委书记兼国家外汇管理局广州分局局长。2000年6月任中国人民银行行长助理、党委委员兼办公厅主任、党委办公室主任、工会工作委员会主任。2002年9月任湖北省副省长、党组成员。
2004年5月任交通银行董事长、党委书记。
蒋超良履新国开行
http://www.jrj.com 2008年09月23日 23:38 21世纪经济报道
【字体：大 中 小】【页面调色版 】
TopView免费解套：010－58325082
华丽转身。
9月23日傍晚时分，交通银行（601328行情,爱股,资讯)董事会发布公告——“蒋超良先生因工作调动，请求辞任本行董事长、非执行董事和董事会战略委员会主任委员职务。蒋先生的辞任自董事会委任其接任者起生效。董事会预期将在本周内宣布接任者的情况。”
寥寥百余字的公告，留给人们的是无尽遐想。
是日，国家开发银行官网发布信息称，有关方面最近对国家开发银行股份有限公司主要领导进行了任命：陈元同志任党委书记，蒋超良同志、姚中民同志任党委副书记。有关董事长、副董事长、行长和监事长的任职按相关法律法规履行程序后办理。
而当日，多位接近国开行的知情人士向本报记者透露，有关部门已赴国开行宣布了蒋超良担任行长一职。
演绎交行模式
在执掌交行帅印之前，蒋超良这个名字对中国金融圈内的行家里手来说也并不陌生，因为在2002年9月担任湖北省副省长之前，蒋超良曾担任中国人民银行行长助理兼办公厅主任、党委办公室主任。
2003年7月，交行摸索出一套全面而务实的银行整体改革方案，这也是后来广为流传的财务重组、引资、上市三部曲。
2004年1月6日，国务院正式公布中行和建行实施股份制改造试点的决定。但探路者的责任更大，它的成败关乎中国整个金融业能否平稳安全着陆，所以，交行三部曲的每一步都走得十分艰辛。
正是在这样的关键时刻，一场高层人事变动在悄无声息中酝酿成熟。
2004年5月末，交银大厦46层的董事长办公室迎来了它的新主人。很多人都记得第一次见到他的印象。他看起来不过40岁出头，深蓝色西服精致笔挺，领口扎着代表喜庆的红色领带，是典型的银行家装扮。
就在蒋超良履新交行不足月余，2004年6月中旬，因为交行爆发了一系列风险事件，汇丰打算结束与交行近4个月的“亲密接触”，向交行提出准备“分手”。
此时，蒋超良亲自出手。2004年6月20日中午，时任汇丰控股（行情,资讯,评论）CEO的葛霖应蒋超良的邀请，来到北京东方君悦酒店，这原本被视为一顿“散伙饭”，吃完之后，汇丰将不再与交行继续谈判，而交行引进境外战投一事也将搁浅。
然而，“散伙饭”后不到12小时，双方再续前缘。最终，汇丰以每股1.86元的价格获得当时交行19.9％的股权。
一年后的2005年6月23日上午10点，香港联合证券交易所，代码为3328的交通银行（行情,资讯,评论）以2.8港元开盘。2007年5月15日，交行回归A股市场。
“三部曲”取得成功后，蒋超良审时度势地提出了转型目标。交行董事会制定了五个转型方向：国际公众持股银行、创新型银行、综合性银行、集约化经营型银行、国际先进管理型银行。
亟待推进股改
2008年是国开行改革发展史上的又一个关键时期。
原国开行行长陈元表示，“开行将沿着向商业银行改革转型之路继续前行，陆续确定和实施改革方案；我们将主动适应经济金融形势的变化，努力挖掘自身优势，取长补短，走出一条不同于传统商业银行的发展之路”。
在一位金融专家看来，目前，国开行的业务模式相对成熟，当务之急便是推进股份制改革，而股份制改革的核心内容又无非是财务重组、引进战略投资者、上市“三部曲”。
“国有大行‘三部曲’的缔造者正是交行，在交行之后，建行、中行、工行的‘三部曲’相继取得成功。”前述银行人士称。
对于“三部曲”，蒋超良熟门熟路。上述银行人士称，在交行模式的几个重大环节上，蒋超良均发挥了非常关键的作用，如引进汇丰、拍板联交所上市等。
前述金融专家也表示，在蒋超良进入国开行管理层之后，将在国开行股份制改造中承担重任，充分发挥在交行的工作经验，推进国开行股改工作。
在交行，蒋超良是战略决策者；而履新国开行后，虽然在股改阶段需要蒋的交行经验，其角色可能更为多元，但未来，蒋超良依然需要直面经营者这一新角色的挑战。
因此，在交行始终强调稳健经营的蒋超良，如何强化国开行的经营管理，各方将拭目以待。
蒋超良
1957年8月生，湖南汨罗人。
1981年加入中国共产党。
1974年12月加工作。在职研究生学历。
1974年12月为湖南省岳阳地区工艺美术厂工人。
1978年8月在湖南财经学院学习。
1981年8月任中国农业银行计划部干部、计划部货币流通处副处长、资金计划部计划处副处长、资金计划部计划处处长、综合计划部主任助理。
1989年11月任中国农业银行青岛市分行崂山区办事处副主任、中国农业银行青岛市分行副行长。
1991年3月任中国农业银行综合计划部副主任、综合计划部主任、国际业务部总经理。
1996年4月任中国人民银行银行司副司长(1993年9月-1996年7月在西南财经大学金融系货币银行学专业在职研究生学习)。
1997年3月任中国人民银行深圳分行行长、党组(委)书记兼国家外汇管理局深圳分局局长。1998年11月任中国人民银行广州分行行长、党委书记兼国家外汇管理局广州分局局长。2000年6月任中国人民银行行长助理、党委委员兼办公厅主任、党委办公室主任、工会工作委员会主任。2002年9月任湖北省副省长、党组成员。
2004年5月任交通银行董事长、党委书记。
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Wow, well, what is happening in China? There seems to be a bout of factional suicide. Both Li Changjiang and Meng Xuenong are Hu Jintao CYL faction members. Yet, both were sacked for derelict of duty, most likely with Hu's blessing. Why would Hu want to destroy his own faction? Meng was fired over a land slide in a mine, which happens once a week in China. Hu seems to be sacrificing a couple of pawns to establish the norm of firing people over derelict of duty. He is doing so because the princelings are getting increasingly powerful, and he wants an excuse to get rid of them in the future.
But you ask: Li and Meng are both senior officials. If factional logic holds, Hu should be trying to save them, not fire them. I think they are small pawns because Meng's career is basically ruined after he got fired from the mayor post of Beijing during SARS. It would have been hard for Hu to elevate him beyond governor level in any event. Li Changjiang's career is basically over also at the age of 64. He would have had to retire in any event next year, so having him resign one year earlier is no big deal for Hu. You can bet that if a mining accident happens in a province governed by one of Hu's younger proteges, like Hu Chunhua or Liu Qibao, there would not be any resignations.
Blitz against Chinese officials follows milk, other scandals
www.chinaview.cn 2008-09-22 20:31:45 Print
By Cheng Zhiliang, Ji Ming, Cheng Yunjie
BEIJING, Sept. 22 (Xinhua) -- China's top quality control official, Li Changjiang, resigned on Monday over the tainted milk scandal, becoming one of the highest-ranking officials punished after the acclaimed Olympics.
Just eight days ago, Shanxi Province Governor Meng Xuenong resigned over the fatal landslide at an illegal mine. Also sacked were a vice governor of Shanxi, the Party chief and mayor of Hebei's capital city Shijiazhuang, and Party and government officials in Xiangfen and Linfen of Shanxi.
These departures represent the biggest step China has taken to remove responsible officials from their posts after 2003, when many officials were punished over the outbreak of the SARS epidemic. Observers said this blitz showed that the central government was on the alert for unexpected developments and was acting on problems straightaway through reform.
The Chinese leadership admitted the existing system of administrative management had some aspects that were not compliant early this year, saying pursuing further administrative reform is "imperative".
They listed those unsuitable aspects, such as insufficient change in government functions, excessive administrative interference in micro-economic operations, and relatively weaker social management and public services.
The resignation of Li, former head of the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, came three days after President Hu Jintao, also general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party (CPC), reprimanded” some officials" over work and food safety accidents this year.
These accidents indicated that some cadres lacked a sense of responsibility and had loose governance, and some paid no attention to people's problems and complaints and were even insensitive to life-threatening problems, Hu said.
"The punishments blew the whistle for officials, telling them that governments at all levels must operate according to the scientific outlook of development. It will also act as a breakthrough point in the ongoing administrative reform, as all those unfit for their positions will be fired," said Wu Zhongmin, professor with the Party School of the CPC Central Committee.
The scientific outlook of development, which was first raised in 2003 and inscribed into the Party Constitution last year, puts people first in the process of development and aims at comprehensive, balanced and sustainable development.
However, the interests and security of the people did not receive due attention from officials in the above-mentioned accidents.
A father complained about tainted milk powder after his 13-year-old daughter developed kidney stones after drinking the powdered milk in May. The Department of Health of Gansu Province received a hospital's report of 16 infants suffering from kidney stones after drinking the same formula in July.
However, the scandal was covered up until September. A total of12,892 infants across China have been hospitalized with the effects of tainted milk powder as of Sunday morning, and at least three babies have died, according to the Ministry of Health.
Long before the Sept. 8 landslide in Shanxi Province, in which 265 people have been confirmed dead, local villagers had reported an unsteady dam at the mining dump to the Xiangfen county government on Feb. 27. However, the county government officials ignored these reports and took no measures against the dump.
"In some areas and departments, there is a culture among government officials that everybody struggles for more power and shuns responsibility. This neglect of the interests of the people is totally unacceptable in the current reform of the administrative system, which aims to build a service-oriented government," said Wang Shiquan, a doctor of the China Executive Leadership Academy Pudong.
李长江简历
www.XINHUANET.com 来源： 新华网
【字体：大 中 小】 【背景色 杏仁黄 秋叶褐 胭脂红 芥末绿 天蓝 雪青 灰 银河白(默认色) 】
李长江 生于１９４４年１０月，黑龙江省双城人，１９７０年７月参加工作，１９６５年１２月加入中国共产党，大学学历。
历任吉林省长春二二八厂干部，吉林省长春光学精密机械学院团委副书记、书记，学院学生工作部部长，吉林省长春光学精密机械学院党委办公室主任，党委常委、纪委书记；１９８６年１１月后任共青团中央青运史研究室干部、副主任；共青团中央青运史研究室主任兼中国青年政治学院党委常委、副院长；中国青少年研究中心主任兼中国青年政治学院党委常委、副书记；１９９２年８月任国家土地管理局副局长、党组成员；１９９５年９月任浙江省省长助理。１９９８年１月至１９９９年１０月任浙江省副省长。１９９９年９月任海关总署副署长，国家出入境检验检疫局局长。２００１年４月任国家质量监督检验检疫总局局长。２００８年３月兼任国家质检总局党组书记。同年９月引咎辞去国家质量监督检验检疫总局局长职务。
是中共十六届、十七届中央委员。
But you ask: Li and Meng are both senior officials. If factional logic holds, Hu should be trying to save them, not fire them. I think they are small pawns because Meng's career is basically ruined after he got fired from the mayor post of Beijing during SARS. It would have been hard for Hu to elevate him beyond governor level in any event. Li Changjiang's career is basically over also at the age of 64. He would have had to retire in any event next year, so having him resign one year earlier is no big deal for Hu. You can bet that if a mining accident happens in a province governed by one of Hu's younger proteges, like Hu Chunhua or Liu Qibao, there would not be any resignations.
Blitz against Chinese officials follows milk, other scandals
www.chinaview.cn 2008-09-22 20:31:45 Print
By Cheng Zhiliang, Ji Ming, Cheng Yunjie
BEIJING, Sept. 22 (Xinhua) -- China's top quality control official, Li Changjiang, resigned on Monday over the tainted milk scandal, becoming one of the highest-ranking officials punished after the acclaimed Olympics.
Just eight days ago, Shanxi Province Governor Meng Xuenong resigned over the fatal landslide at an illegal mine. Also sacked were a vice governor of Shanxi, the Party chief and mayor of Hebei's capital city Shijiazhuang, and Party and government officials in Xiangfen and Linfen of Shanxi.
These departures represent the biggest step China has taken to remove responsible officials from their posts after 2003, when many officials were punished over the outbreak of the SARS epidemic. Observers said this blitz showed that the central government was on the alert for unexpected developments and was acting on problems straightaway through reform.
The Chinese leadership admitted the existing system of administrative management had some aspects that were not compliant early this year, saying pursuing further administrative reform is "imperative".
They listed those unsuitable aspects, such as insufficient change in government functions, excessive administrative interference in micro-economic operations, and relatively weaker social management and public services.
The resignation of Li, former head of the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine, came three days after President Hu Jintao, also general secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party (CPC), reprimanded” some officials" over work and food safety accidents this year.
These accidents indicated that some cadres lacked a sense of responsibility and had loose governance, and some paid no attention to people's problems and complaints and were even insensitive to life-threatening problems, Hu said.
"The punishments blew the whistle for officials, telling them that governments at all levels must operate according to the scientific outlook of development. It will also act as a breakthrough point in the ongoing administrative reform, as all those unfit for their positions will be fired," said Wu Zhongmin, professor with the Party School of the CPC Central Committee.
The scientific outlook of development, which was first raised in 2003 and inscribed into the Party Constitution last year, puts people first in the process of development and aims at comprehensive, balanced and sustainable development.
However, the interests and security of the people did not receive due attention from officials in the above-mentioned accidents.
A father complained about tainted milk powder after his 13-year-old daughter developed kidney stones after drinking the powdered milk in May. The Department of Health of Gansu Province received a hospital's report of 16 infants suffering from kidney stones after drinking the same formula in July.
However, the scandal was covered up until September. A total of12,892 infants across China have been hospitalized with the effects of tainted milk powder as of Sunday morning, and at least three babies have died, according to the Ministry of Health.
Long before the Sept. 8 landslide in Shanxi Province, in which 265 people have been confirmed dead, local villagers had reported an unsteady dam at the mining dump to the Xiangfen county government on Feb. 27. However, the county government officials ignored these reports and took no measures against the dump.
"In some areas and departments, there is a culture among government officials that everybody struggles for more power and shuns responsibility. This neglect of the interests of the people is totally unacceptable in the current reform of the administrative system, which aims to build a service-oriented government," said Wang Shiquan, a doctor of the China Executive Leadership Academy Pudong.
李长江简历
www.XINHUANET.com 来源： 新华网
【字体：大 中 小】 【背景色 杏仁黄 秋叶褐 胭脂红 芥末绿 天蓝 雪青 灰 银河白(默认色) 】
李长江 生于１９４４年１０月，黑龙江省双城人，１９７０年７月参加工作，１９６５年１２月加入中国共产党，大学学历。
历任吉林省长春二二八厂干部，吉林省长春光学精密机械学院团委副书记、书记，学院学生工作部部长，吉林省长春光学精密机械学院党委办公室主任，党委常委、纪委书记；１９８６年１１月后任共青团中央青运史研究室干部、副主任；共青团中央青运史研究室主任兼中国青年政治学院党委常委、副院长；中国青少年研究中心主任兼中国青年政治学院党委常委、副书记；１９９２年８月任国家土地管理局副局长、党组成员；１９９５年９月任浙江省省长助理。１９９８年１月至１９９９年１０月任浙江省副省长。１９９９年９月任海关总署副署长，国家出入境检验检疫局局长。２００１年４月任国家质量监督检验检疫总局局长。２００８年３月兼任国家质检总局党组书记。同年９月引咎辞去国家质量监督检验检疫总局局长职务。
是中共十六届、十七届中央委员。
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Sunday, September 21, 2008
A reporter friend of mine asked whether I thought the BOC's acquisition of 20% of Compagnie Financiere Edmond de Rothschild signals the beginning of a Chinese buying spree.
Basically, I don't think that many deals will actually happen. Many Chinese banks may run into their own sub-prime problem soon due to falling housing prices (you can read my previous blogs on that issue). Thus, they need to hoard capital for impending write-offs which should take place some time next year. The State Council knows this and will be very careful with approving major acquisitions by commercial banks. In the mean time, the CIC is being very careful due to the Blackstone debacle and the equally embarrassing Morgan Stanley deal. CIC may instruct third parties to take small stakes in a bunch of financial institutions, but it would take a very attractive bargain for them to take a substantial stake in any particular one.
Basically, I don't think that many deals will actually happen. Many Chinese banks may run into their own sub-prime problem soon due to falling housing prices (you can read my previous blogs on that issue). Thus, they need to hoard capital for impending write-offs which should take place some time next year. The State Council knows this and will be very careful with approving major acquisitions by commercial banks. In the mean time, the CIC is being very careful due to the Blackstone debacle and the equally embarrassing Morgan Stanley deal. CIC may instruct third parties to take small stakes in a bunch of financial institutions, but it would take a very attractive bargain for them to take a substantial stake in any particular one.
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Saturday, September 20, 2008
We all watch in horror as the government reveals more and more dairy items in which the chemical compound Melamine was found. A colleague of mine wonders why Chinese companies suddenly began to use such a harmful chemical on a product consumed by children. I have been wondering about the same thing myself.
It strikes me that the timing coincides somewhat with the imposition of price control on dairy products earlier in the year (February I think and more indirect measures even earlier). As I have argued in this blog earlier, the imposition of price control means either shortage or the deterioration of quality. In a purely planned economy, the result was shortage. However, in a quasi market economy, where SOEs are expected, indeed pressured, to generate profit, the result was the deterioration of quality. Below is the China Daily press release from February:
"During the price intervention period, operators' price increases must not be higher than the cost increase and the government can limit the manufacturers' profit rate and goods distribution difference rate. Operators must apply for a price increase to the local pricing department 10 days in advance of their expected increase."
Of course Sanlu was particularly egregious and might have started doing this a few years ago. However, the fact that 22 companies also engaged in using Melamine suggests that there was some industry wide pressure to generate profit in the face of price control. The inflation rate looks relatively good now because the price bureaus have apparently done their job by giving few price increases. However, the cost to consumers is deterioration in quality in essential food items. I would look for harmful chemicals being used in processed meats and poultry also......
Also, sadly, this is one of those instances in which some corruption might have caused a better outcome. Had Sanlu been able to bribe quality inspectors about diluted milk powder, many Chinese infants would have been a bit more malnourished, but still alive...
Then strangely, the NDRC website calls for even stricter enforcement of price control on baby formula. Why? No one is buying milk powder, so why is there the need to impose price control on it?!
www.sdpc.gov.cn
国家发展改革委发出紧急通知
要求切实加强婴幼儿奶粉价格监管
三鹿牌婴幼儿奶粉重大安全事故的发生，引起社会各界的广泛关注。为稳定婴幼儿奶粉价格，近日国家发展改革委发出紧急通知，要求各地加强价格监管，维护市场稳定。
通知指出，各地价格主管部门要密切关注奶粉市场供求和价格变化，加强对奶粉市场零售价格和原料奶收购价格的实时监测，及时掌握市场动态。
通知要求，当各地婴幼儿奶粉价格显著上涨或可能显著上涨时，各省级价格主管部门要依据《国家发展改革委关于对部分重要商品及服务实行临时价格干预措施的实施办法》的有关规定，报请省级人民政府批准，对婴幼儿奶粉价格及时启动限定差价率或者利润率、规定限价、实行提价申报制度和调价备案制度等干预措施，防止其价格不合理上涨。
通知强调，各地价格主管部门要认真开展奶粉市场价格检查和巡查，重点检查婴幼儿奶粉价格，坚决打击趁机哄抬价格、牟取暴利的行为。对串通涨价、捏造散布涨价信息、囤积居奇、哄抬物价、以次充好、变相抬价，以及不执行临时价格干预措施等违法行为，要严肃查处，严厉制裁，对典型案件要予以公开曝光。
It strikes me that the timing coincides somewhat with the imposition of price control on dairy products earlier in the year (February I think and more indirect measures even earlier). As I have argued in this blog earlier, the imposition of price control means either shortage or the deterioration of quality. In a purely planned economy, the result was shortage. However, in a quasi market economy, where SOEs are expected, indeed pressured, to generate profit, the result was the deterioration of quality. Below is the China Daily press release from February:
"During the price intervention period, operators' price increases must not be higher than the cost increase and the government can limit the manufacturers' profit rate and goods distribution difference rate. Operators must apply for a price increase to the local pricing department 10 days in advance of their expected increase."
Of course Sanlu was particularly egregious and might have started doing this a few years ago. However, the fact that 22 companies also engaged in using Melamine suggests that there was some industry wide pressure to generate profit in the face of price control. The inflation rate looks relatively good now because the price bureaus have apparently done their job by giving few price increases. However, the cost to consumers is deterioration in quality in essential food items. I would look for harmful chemicals being used in processed meats and poultry also......
Also, sadly, this is one of those instances in which some corruption might have caused a better outcome. Had Sanlu been able to bribe quality inspectors about diluted milk powder, many Chinese infants would have been a bit more malnourished, but still alive...
Then strangely, the NDRC website calls for even stricter enforcement of price control on baby formula. Why? No one is buying milk powder, so why is there the need to impose price control on it?!
www.sdpc.gov.cn
国家发展改革委发出紧急通知
要求切实加强婴幼儿奶粉价格监管
三鹿牌婴幼儿奶粉重大安全事故的发生，引起社会各界的广泛关注。为稳定婴幼儿奶粉价格，近日国家发展改革委发出紧急通知，要求各地加强价格监管，维护市场稳定。
通知指出，各地价格主管部门要密切关注奶粉市场供求和价格变化，加强对奶粉市场零售价格和原料奶收购价格的实时监测，及时掌握市场动态。
通知要求，当各地婴幼儿奶粉价格显著上涨或可能显著上涨时，各省级价格主管部门要依据《国家发展改革委关于对部分重要商品及服务实行临时价格干预措施的实施办法》的有关规定，报请省级人民政府批准，对婴幼儿奶粉价格及时启动限定差价率或者利润率、规定限价、实行提价申报制度和调价备案制度等干预措施，防止其价格不合理上涨。
通知强调，各地价格主管部门要认真开展奶粉市场价格检查和巡查，重点检查婴幼儿奶粉价格，坚决打击趁机哄抬价格、牟取暴利的行为。对串通涨价、捏造散布涨价信息、囤积居奇、哄抬物价、以次充好、变相抬价，以及不执行临时价格干预措施等违法行为，要严肃查处，严厉制裁，对典型案件要予以公开曝光。
Comments:
I agree that the price control brought the qualify issue into question while it helps make CPI look good. Good CPI figure clears the way for generalist faction to loosen money supply.
I read from some forums that some sell-claimed insider argues that the situation is worse than is reported. He argues that in fact a chemical compound called UREA rather than Melamine was originally employed during the milk power production. UREA is cheaper and more dangerous than Melamine while Melamine is only a byproduct of UREA.
I read from some forums that some sell-claimed insider argues that the situation is worse than is reported. He argues that in fact a chemical compound called UREA rather than Melamine was originally employed during the milk power production. UREA is cheaper and more dangerous than Melamine while Melamine is only a byproduct of UREA.
# posted by 
: 5:11 AM
: 5:11 AM
I looked into this last year -- remember the melamine in the pet food scandal?
Melamine makes it appear as if protein levels are higher than they really are, but keeps cost down, boosting profit.
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Melamine makes it appear as if protein levels are higher than they really are, but keeps cost down, boosting profit.
# posted by : 11:13 AM
: 11:13 AMWednesday, September 03, 2008
My latest contribution to the RGE Monitor
Bundling in China
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Victor Shih | Sep 3, 2008
Due to strong political pressure at the highest level and seemingly declining inflation, the State Council caved and increased the credit quota by some 200 billion RMB. Well, that only goes so far, and much of it still goes to larger firms. So, how are they dealing with the continual liquidity problem? Bundling!! Local governments, including Sichuan, Chongqing, Henan, Beijing, Liaoning, Zhejiang, and Shenzhen, are all planning to issue tranches of corporate bonds whose cash flow comes from a group of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Each province will issuing 1 to 2 billion RMB of notes for the approved SMEs. The local governments will guarantee these notes, which have 3-5 years maturity!! This is a familiar scheme of borrowing to fulfill current policy needs and leaving bad debt for future leaders of a province or city. This is why the central government banned local governments from issuing debt, but it is coming back in a latent form. Granted, it is on a small scale now, but it can really take off. I think the NDRC is backing this effort, though I am not sure if the financial regulators in Beijing like this. This will also create good business for domestic investment banks, especially those with local government ties. It might also give a boost to state owned asset management companies which are trying to transform themselves into investment banks.
Great, everybody wins, right? We must revisit the question of whether bundling a few highly leveraged companies together makes it better than one highly leveraged company issuing debt? We eventually found out in the US that such bundling, even if done in a very clever way, does not reduce fundamental risks. But I think in China, they know of the risks-- they just don't care because in three years' time, it will be someone else' problem. Perhaps those more familiar with this kind of product can comment further on its risks.
Generally, the recent decision to increase credit quota has made the signal from the central government much more ambiguous and subject to local interpretation. Instead of fighting inflation and reining in investment, growth and survival of SMEs are also paramount policy goals now. I have always argued that ambiguous signals are very dangerous in the Chinese context. The local regulators are already on the side of the local governments and businesses. If the center gives even a hint of loosening, local governments will encourage local regulators to forget all about the rules. In Shenzhen, the local CBRC office is thinking up all kinds of "methods" of financing SMEs, including healthy measures like allowing city commercial banks elsewhere to do business in Shenzhen. Less healthy suggestions include using government money to set up a fund to invest in SMEs and allowing lower level branch banks to operate side investment and small loans companies. Matt Miller, a former Bloomberg reporter who has researched the Kaiping case extensively, can tell you all about side investment and loan companies operated by branch banks. We basically saw an explosion of NPLs and corruption scandals as local bankers siphoned billions from the banking system.
The CBRC in Beijing is also exploring "flexible" policies, such as allowing commercial banks to serve as quasi investment banks to provide funds and guarantees for companies that merge. Basically, instead of allowing bankruptcies, which would increase NPLs, the CBRC would rather that banks force good companies to take over the bad ones. Sounds familiar? That is what they did in the 90s with SOEs--now the same formular is applied to teetering real estate companies and SMEs. Why are they doing this? Isn't everything fine? The first half reports of banks all show spectacular profit and falling NPL ratios. Well, if we look a bit more carefully at overdue loans (definition varies, but typically lapsed interest payment over 90s days), we see that they are on the rise. Overdue loans for Industrial Bank, for example, has gone up over 20% in the first half. Accounting tricks are holding the NPL figures low for now, but by first quarter next year......
Bundling in China
Email PrintShare
Delicious Digg Facebook reddit Technorati
Victor Shih | Sep 3, 2008
Due to strong political pressure at the highest level and seemingly declining inflation, the State Council caved and increased the credit quota by some 200 billion RMB. Well, that only goes so far, and much of it still goes to larger firms. So, how are they dealing with the continual liquidity problem? Bundling!! Local governments, including Sichuan, Chongqing, Henan, Beijing, Liaoning, Zhejiang, and Shenzhen, are all planning to issue tranches of corporate bonds whose cash flow comes from a group of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Each province will issuing 1 to 2 billion RMB of notes for the approved SMEs. The local governments will guarantee these notes, which have 3-5 years maturity!! This is a familiar scheme of borrowing to fulfill current policy needs and leaving bad debt for future leaders of a province or city. This is why the central government banned local governments from issuing debt, but it is coming back in a latent form. Granted, it is on a small scale now, but it can really take off. I think the NDRC is backing this effort, though I am not sure if the financial regulators in Beijing like this. This will also create good business for domestic investment banks, especially those with local government ties. It might also give a boost to state owned asset management companies which are trying to transform themselves into investment banks.
Great, everybody wins, right? We must revisit the question of whether bundling a few highly leveraged companies together makes it better than one highly leveraged company issuing debt? We eventually found out in the US that such bundling, even if done in a very clever way, does not reduce fundamental risks. But I think in China, they know of the risks-- they just don't care because in three years' time, it will be someone else' problem. Perhaps those more familiar with this kind of product can comment further on its risks.
Generally, the recent decision to increase credit quota has made the signal from the central government much more ambiguous and subject to local interpretation. Instead of fighting inflation and reining in investment, growth and survival of SMEs are also paramount policy goals now. I have always argued that ambiguous signals are very dangerous in the Chinese context. The local regulators are already on the side of the local governments and businesses. If the center gives even a hint of loosening, local governments will encourage local regulators to forget all about the rules. In Shenzhen, the local CBRC office is thinking up all kinds of "methods" of financing SMEs, including healthy measures like allowing city commercial banks elsewhere to do business in Shenzhen. Less healthy suggestions include using government money to set up a fund to invest in SMEs and allowing lower level branch banks to operate side investment and small loans companies. Matt Miller, a former Bloomberg reporter who has researched the Kaiping case extensively, can tell you all about side investment and loan companies operated by branch banks. We basically saw an explosion of NPLs and corruption scandals as local bankers siphoned billions from the banking system.
The CBRC in Beijing is also exploring "flexible" policies, such as allowing commercial banks to serve as quasi investment banks to provide funds and guarantees for companies that merge. Basically, instead of allowing bankruptcies, which would increase NPLs, the CBRC would rather that banks force good companies to take over the bad ones. Sounds familiar? That is what they did in the 90s with SOEs--now the same formular is applied to teetering real estate companies and SMEs. Why are they doing this? Isn't everything fine? The first half reports of banks all show spectacular profit and falling NPL ratios. Well, if we look a bit more carefully at overdue loans (definition varies, but typically lapsed interest payment over 90s days), we see that they are on the rise. Overdue loans for Industrial Bank, for example, has gone up over 20% in the first half. Accounting tricks are holding the NPL figures low for now, but by first quarter next year......
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Monday, September 01, 2008
Well, it seems former head of the NBS Qiu Xiaohua, who was removed last year for corruption, is now back in action. The Pheonix Television website reports that Qiu Xiaohua is now an economic analyst for CNOOC, the oil company. He actually penned a report criticizing current macro policy for being too inward looking--small revenge?
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凤凰财经 > 历史 > 政经江湖 > 正文
原国家统计局局长邱晓华成中海油研究员
2008年08月29日 08:27新华网【大 中 小】 【打印】
（原国家统计局局长邱晓华 资料照片）
两年前，在有关部门调查上海社保资金案中，被发现涉嫌严重违纪而落马的原国家统计局局长邱晓华，日前已赴中海油总公司下属研究机构任职。8月28日，一篇题为《掌控当前经济形势的政策建议》的文章出现在经观报网站上，该文针对当前中国宏观经济面临的复杂形势，提出政策建议；文章末尾署名为“原国家统计局局长、现中海油高级研究员”。这是邱晓华2007年1月份被“双开”消失后，首次以大型国企的高级研究员身份亮相媒体。
上任约200天即被免职
今年50岁的邱晓华于1982年进入国家统计局，先后任国民经济综合统计司处长、副处长、总经济师、新闻发言人等职务，年仅48岁便升任国家统计局党组书记、局长。2006年10月12日，48岁的邱晓华突然被免去国家统计局局长职务——他在国家统计局局长任上呆了约 200天。
新华社2007年1月23日发布消息称:“经查，邱晓华在任国家统计局领导职务期间，收受不法企业主所送现金；生活腐化堕落，涉嫌重婚犯罪。”报道称，邱晓华身为党的高级领导干部，丧失党性原则，收受现金，道德败坏，涉嫌重婚犯罪，其行为严重违反了党纪政纪和法律，造成了恶劣的社会政治影响，必须依纪依法严肃处理。根据《中国共产党纪律处分条例》《中华人民共和国公务员法》的有关规定，经中央纪委审议并报中共中央批准，决定给予邱晓华开除党籍处分；经监察部报请国务院批准，决定给予邱晓华行政开除处分；建议依法撤销其全国政协委员资格。对其涉嫌犯罪问题移送司法机关依法处理。随后一年多时间里，再无关于邱晓华的消息。
提议治通胀要防止两种倾向
今年50岁的邱晓华，拥有经济学博士头衔及高级统计师资格。在这篇题为 《掌控当前经济形势的政策建议》的文章中，邱晓华指出，“2008年的中国经济走向将主要取决于对宏观调控政策的把握上。”
据邱晓华判断，中国出现高度通胀的可能性较小。他还特别指出，在治理通胀的过程中，要注意防止两种倾向:一是，缺乏国际视野，还是局限于国内问题，关起门来就通胀论通胀，忽视本轮通胀的国际性，影响国内经济的较快发展，以至出现中国为世界通胀吃药，付出过大的代价；二是，缺乏综合措施，还是局限于单纯紧缩货币政策，仅把控制需求作为主要手段，忽视财政政策和外贸政策，影响社会需求的稳定增长，以至出现微观经济发展的环境持续恶化，加大社会的成本压力，加剧供求的失衡矛盾。
邱晓华认为，防止物价上涨过快的政策立足点，要更多地放在改善供给、优化结构、完善机制上，更多地放在减轻企业和个人负担上，而不是放在单纯的紧缩货币需求上。
今年6月传已出狱
早在今年6月17日，曾有报道称，在2006年因涉及上海社保基金案而落马的前国家统计局局长邱晓华，近日已出狱，赴中海油总公司下属研究机构任职。但后来一直未有下文，也无正式的消息披露。
经观网一名高层人士昨晚向《每日经济新闻》透露，该文章确为邱晓华所为，而且他的确已经在中海油任职。而且，这篇文章是邱晓华通过中间渠道送给经观网发表的。“他很低调”，谈到此时发表文章的背景，这位人士表示，当前中国面临复杂的国际形势，宏观经济面临多种挑战，作为一名曾经的学者型官员，他可能想发表自己的观点，为国家提点有益的建议。
当记者致电中海油工作人员询问情况时，该工作人员表示，公司内部没有发布任何关于邱晓华任职的公告，“可能他是以专家和顾问的身份入职，但中海油的专家一般都是技术类的。”
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原国家统计局局长邱晓华成中海油研究员
2008年08月29日 08:27新华网【大 中 小】 【打印】
（原国家统计局局长邱晓华 资料照片）
两年前，在有关部门调查上海社保资金案中，被发现涉嫌严重违纪而落马的原国家统计局局长邱晓华，日前已赴中海油总公司下属研究机构任职。8月28日，一篇题为《掌控当前经济形势的政策建议》的文章出现在经观报网站上，该文针对当前中国宏观经济面临的复杂形势，提出政策建议；文章末尾署名为“原国家统计局局长、现中海油高级研究员”。这是邱晓华2007年1月份被“双开”消失后，首次以大型国企的高级研究员身份亮相媒体。
上任约200天即被免职
今年50岁的邱晓华于1982年进入国家统计局，先后任国民经济综合统计司处长、副处长、总经济师、新闻发言人等职务，年仅48岁便升任国家统计局党组书记、局长。2006年10月12日，48岁的邱晓华突然被免去国家统计局局长职务——他在国家统计局局长任上呆了约 200天。
新华社2007年1月23日发布消息称:“经查，邱晓华在任国家统计局领导职务期间，收受不法企业主所送现金；生活腐化堕落，涉嫌重婚犯罪。”报道称，邱晓华身为党的高级领导干部，丧失党性原则，收受现金，道德败坏，涉嫌重婚犯罪，其行为严重违反了党纪政纪和法律，造成了恶劣的社会政治影响，必须依纪依法严肃处理。根据《中国共产党纪律处分条例》《中华人民共和国公务员法》的有关规定，经中央纪委审议并报中共中央批准，决定给予邱晓华开除党籍处分；经监察部报请国务院批准，决定给予邱晓华行政开除处分；建议依法撤销其全国政协委员资格。对其涉嫌犯罪问题移送司法机关依法处理。随后一年多时间里，再无关于邱晓华的消息。
提议治通胀要防止两种倾向
今年50岁的邱晓华，拥有经济学博士头衔及高级统计师资格。在这篇题为 《掌控当前经济形势的政策建议》的文章中，邱晓华指出，“2008年的中国经济走向将主要取决于对宏观调控政策的把握上。”
据邱晓华判断，中国出现高度通胀的可能性较小。他还特别指出，在治理通胀的过程中，要注意防止两种倾向:一是，缺乏国际视野，还是局限于国内问题，关起门来就通胀论通胀，忽视本轮通胀的国际性，影响国内经济的较快发展，以至出现中国为世界通胀吃药，付出过大的代价；二是，缺乏综合措施，还是局限于单纯紧缩货币政策，仅把控制需求作为主要手段，忽视财政政策和外贸政策，影响社会需求的稳定增长，以至出现微观经济发展的环境持续恶化，加大社会的成本压力，加剧供求的失衡矛盾。
邱晓华认为，防止物价上涨过快的政策立足点，要更多地放在改善供给、优化结构、完善机制上，更多地放在减轻企业和个人负担上，而不是放在单纯的紧缩货币需求上。
今年6月传已出狱
早在今年6月17日，曾有报道称，在2006年因涉及上海社保基金案而落马的前国家统计局局长邱晓华，近日已出狱，赴中海油总公司下属研究机构任职。但后来一直未有下文，也无正式的消息披露。
经观网一名高层人士昨晚向《每日经济新闻》透露，该文章确为邱晓华所为，而且他的确已经在中海油任职。而且，这篇文章是邱晓华通过中间渠道送给经观网发表的。“他很低调”，谈到此时发表文章的背景，这位人士表示，当前中国面临复杂的国际形势，宏观经济面临多种挑战，作为一名曾经的学者型官员，他可能想发表自己的观点，为国家提点有益的建议。
当记者致电中海油工作人员询问情况时，该工作人员表示，公司内部没有发布任何关于邱晓华任职的公告，“可能他是以专家和顾问的身份入职，但中海油的专家一般都是技术类的。”
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