Elite Chinese Politics and Political Economy

Princelings in the Limelight

I have noticed a trend in the People's Daily website since the 17th Party Congress--princelings, the children of Chinese leaders, are increasingly bandying their "blood" credentials in various stories. You see interviews with princelings recounting their memories of their fathers displayed prominently on the website. Even Mao Xinyu, the grandson of Chairman Mao (left), is trotted out frequently. The latest item goes too far, I think. First of all, instead of "princelings," they are now called "red descendants." Eh, doesn't that sound a bit like the "blood line theory," which dominated early Red Guard discourse back in the Cultural Revolution (slogan: father a hero, son good man; father reactionary, son turtle's egg). These "red descendants" are collectively wishing the Chinese people happy new year. Great! So now it's officially okay to admit that "red descendants" is a coherent social group, one that is to be admired by the people.

Although this may sound trivial, but Deng Xiaoping would never, ever have allowed this. Back in the 80s, strict rules were observed to hide the identities of princelings and to disregard any personal ties between fathers and off springs. Of course, people still used connections to get their children plum jobs. However, princeling status had no legitimacy or social standing. Princelings used to hide their own identities to all but the closest friends. Now all of these ties are bandied about casually and endorsed officially in the press as "red descendants." Even Bo Xicheng, Bo Xilai's elusive brother, makes an appearance. Look, this looks suspiciously like the princelings' play at building up more legitimacy for themselves in preparation of Xi Jinping's takeover. It is sad to see because Chen Yun and even Xi Zhongxun himself would never have allowed such abuse of these ties in the public discourse. Where is Song Ping when you need him?

http://dangshi.people.com.cn/GB/8706850.html

牛年牛气冲天，带着希望，带着喜悦，2009年向我们轻轻地走来。新年之际，我们感动，我们感谢，我们祝福 。纪念革命先辈的丰功伟绩，珍惜今日的幸福生活，“红色后代”通过人民网，给广大网友拜年，给全国各地各界朋友拜年！

　毛泽东之孙：毛新宇 周恩来侄女：周秉德 刘少奇之女:刘亭 朱德嫡孙：朱和平　

　任弼时嫡孙：任继宁 彭德怀侄女:彭钢 贺龙之女：贺晓明 陈赓之子：陈知建

　许光达之子：许延滨 薄一波之子：薄熙成

　
　
　 毛新宇：工作更进一步，事业兴旺发达。

　　
　　毛新宇：

　　祝大家新春快乐！工作更进一步，事业兴旺发达。

　　毛新宇简介：毛泽东的孙子、毛岸青与邵华之子。1970年1月17日生。1992年7月毕业于中国人民大学历史系；1992年9月至1995年7月在中央党校理论部攻读硕士学位，后在军事科学院攻读博士学位，2003年7月份获得博士学位。现在是军事科学院研究员、博士,大校军衔。
　

　　
周秉德：我们共同为中华之崛起而读书而奋斗一生！
　
　　
周秉德：

我们共同为中华之崛起而读书而奋斗一生！

　　周秉德简介：第九届、十届全国政协委员，周恩来的侄女。
　


刘亭：前赴后继，建业亲民！
　
　　
　　刘 亭：
　　前赴后继，建业亲民！
　　刘亭简介：刘亭：原名刘婷婷，1952年4月1日出生。刘少奇之女。现任联亚集团董事长、总裁、中贸圣佳国际拍卖有限公司董事长、中华全国工商业联合会常委、幸福工程组委会副主任等职。
　

朱和平：祝网友们在新的一年里身体健康！万事如意！
　
　　
　　朱和平：

　　祝网友们在新的一年里事业有成！家庭幸福！

　　身体健康！万事如意！

　　朱和平简介：男，四川仪陇人。1952年10月生，1970年12月入伍，现为空军装备研究院某研究所所长、空军大校军衔、高级工程师、博士生导师。著有《永久的记忆·和爷爷朱德奶奶康克清一起生活的日子》及军事学术专著多部。

　　
　　任继宁：

　　祝愿全国人民在新的一年里更加美满幸福！　
　　任继宁简介：任弼时同志唯一的孙子，1969年3月出生，1988年到1990就读于中国政法大学法律系，1990年到1998年就职于国际贸易公司，1998年到2000年，就读于美国马里兰州州立大学，获经济学学士学位，2000到2003年就读于美国霍普金斯私立大学，获商务管理硕士学位。现在开创北京南巷一号文化传播有限公司进行中国现代革命史的研究工作。2005年出版《我的爷爷任弼时》第一部：光辉的历程，2007年推出《我的爷爷任弼时》第二部：任弼时画传。
　


彭钢：事事如意，事业有成
　
　　
　　彭 钢：

亲爱的网友们：新春快乐，玩的开心，吃的可口。全家人幸福，身体天天健康。事事如意，事业有成。

　　彭钢简介：彭钢，女，汉族，1938年11月生，湖南湘潭人。1979年8月加入中国共产党。大学文化程度，少将军衔。彭德怀侄女。

　

贺晓明：在新的一年里，祝人民网越办越好！
　
　　
　　贺晓明：

　　在新的一年里，祝人民网越办越好！祝各位网友心想事成！
　　一切都好！

　　贺晓明简介：贺龙元帅之女。
　

陈知建：祝网友2009年所有节假日都快乐！
　
　　
　　陈知建：

　　祝网友2009年所有节假日都快乐！
　　陈知建简介：陈赓大将之子、重庆警备区原副司令员。出生于1945年。1950年，陈知建随全家从昆明去北京，进入育英小学读书。高中毕业后就读于哈军工导弹工程系遥控遥测专业。历任技术员、工程师，第14集团军步兵40师副参谋长兼步兵120团团长，第14集团军步兵40师副师长、集团军副参谋长，总参军务部兵员局、第二编制局局长，重庆警备区副司令员。2003年退休。

　
许延斌：新年到了，愿大家都幸福安康。
　
　　
　　许延滨：

广大士兵、年轻军官和关心国防事业的网友们，给你们拜年。我想说，军人不是职业，代表着一种责任，对祖国、民族和子孙后代终身的责任。一个好的习惯要从小培养，责任心也是在成长的过程中逐渐增强的，要想有所成就，还要有对知识活学活用的思维模式。

许延滨简介：许光达之子，1939年5月生于延安，1959年高中毕业于北京一零一中学，同年考入哈尔滨军事工程学院导弹自动化专业。1964年毕业。1975年至1976年，参加核试验，率部队乘战车进入爆心。1978年至1979年，参加边境作战，任总参装甲兵部队前线指挥部作战参谋，战争中光荣负伤。1983年至1989年任坦克二师师长。1989年任中国人民解放军装甲兵工程学院副院长、少将、博士生导师。中国应急管理专业委员会委员、信息战专家。

　　

薄熙成：祝愿我们伟大的祖国未来比现在更美好！
　
　　
　　薄熙成：

在新春佳节来临之际，衷心祝愿我们有更多的贫困家庭能脱贫致富；祝愿更多的孩子能完成高中学业；祝愿所有的应届大学毕业生都能找到自己满意的工作；祝愿我们的人民明天比今天更幸福，祝愿我们伟大的祖国未来比现在更美好！！！

薄熙成简介：薄一波之子，现任中国扶贫开发协会副会长，北京六合兴济困助学中心理事长。

Beijing Vice Mayor Gets Suspended Death Sentence Anyway...

Well guys, despite rather sympathetic coverage by the Legal Daily, perhaps the product of a thick envelope from lawyer, former Vice Mayor of Beijing Liu Zhihua will get a suspended death sentence due to "well grounded, sufficient" evidence. At least he won't be carted to the executed ground immediately like Cheng Kejie. In two years, perhaps for "humanitarian" reason he will be moved to the general prison population.

北京市原副市长刘志华受贿终审被判死缓

2009年01月21日17:34 来源：正义网
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　　记者从最高人民法院获悉，21日上午，河北省高级人民法院对北京市原副市长刘志华受贿一案宣布二审裁定，维持了一审法院的死缓判决。

　　2008年10月18日，衡水市中级人民法院于对刘志华案宣告一审判决，认定刘志华利用职务便利为他人谋取利益，索取和收受他人财物折合人民币696万余元，其行为构成受贿罪，情节特别严重，应当适用死刑刑罚。鉴于刘志华案发后能主动坦白部分犯罪事实，绝大部分赃款、赃物已追缴，对其判处死刑，可不立即执行，遂判处其死刑，缓期二年执行，剥夺政治权利终身，没收个人全部财产。

　　一审宣判后，刘志华不服，提出上诉。河北省高级人民法院经审理认为，一审判决认定的事实清楚，证据确实、充分，定罪准确，量刑适当，审判程序合法，裁定驳回刘志华的上诉，维持原判。 (徐日丹)

The State Council Gets Desperate

A piece on today's People's Daily confirms my previous observations that Wen now ONLY cares about maintaining growth. I especially like the phrase "issue loans as soon as possible." Sure, there were some pleasantries at the end to "in the end preserve the healthy functioning of banks." But "in the end," we are all dead...

讨论《政府工作报告（征求意见稿）》
温家宝指出，今年是我国进入新世纪以来经济发展最困难的一年。要全力做好一季度经济工作，尽快扭转经济增速下滑趋势，千方百计实现今年经济工作的良好开局

2009年01月20日00:00 来源：人民网-《人民日报》
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　　本报北京１月１９日电 国务院总理温家宝１９日上午主持召开国务院第二次全体会议，讨论即将提请十一届全国人大二次会议审议的《政府工作报告（征求意见稿）》。会议决定，将此稿发往各省、自治区、直辖市和中央有关部门、单位征求意见。

　　温家宝在会上发表了讲话。他说，今年在应对国际金融危机的特殊情况下，政府工作报告倍受国内外关注，人民群众寄予厚望。一定要以对党和国家事业、对人民群众高度负责的精神，认真写好这个《报告》。要把《报告》稿征求意见和修改的过程，作为统一认识、增强信心的过程，作为应对危机、克服困难的过程，作为集思广益、科学决策的过程，作为完善措施、狠抓落实的过程。

　　温家宝指出，过去的一年，是极不寻常、极不平凡的一年。我们全面夺取抗击两场突如其来特大自然灾害的重大胜利，积极应对历史罕见国际金融危机的严重冲击，克服国际市场初级产品价格剧烈波动的不利影响，保持了国民经济平稳较快发展和物价基本稳定。我们正确把握宏观调控的方向、重点、力度和节奏，根据经济形势的变化，适时对宏观经济政策做出重大调整。特别是下半年，针对国际金融危机对我国经济的不利影响，我们果断提出灵活审慎的宏观经济政策，将宏观调控的重点转向保持经济平稳较快增长，明确提出实施积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，迅速推出扩大内需、促进经济平稳较快增长的十项措施。实践证明，中央采取的一系列宏观调控政策是及时的、正确的、有效的，使我们在应对国际金融危机中赢得了时间，争取了主动，稳定了局势。

　　温家宝指出，今年是我国进入新世纪以来经济发展最困难的一年。做好一季度经济工作，将为完成全年国民经济和社会发展各项任务赢得主动，奠定基础，也可起到振奋精神、坚定信心、鼓舞士气的作用。要全力做好一季度经济工作，尽快扭转经济增速下滑趋势，千方百计实现今年经济工作的良好开局。（一）抓紧落实近期出台的扩大内需、促进经济增长的一揽子计划，加快制定和实施重点产业调整振兴规划。做到尽早完善政策规划和科技支撑规划，尽早核准项目计划，尽早安排财政资金，尽早下达银行贷款，尽早落实各项措施。（二）抓好冬春农业生产。要抓紧落实各项强农惠农政策，特别是粮食直补、良种补贴、农资综合补贴和农机具购置补贴政策要及早兑现到户。搞好越冬农作物管理，大力加强冬春农田水利和高标准农田建设，提前做好春耕备耕工作。（三）促进工业平稳较快发展。要引导企业调整产品结构，加强内部管理，降低经营成本，积极开拓市场，稳定就业岗位。亏损企业要尽快实现扭亏增盈。落实调整振兴产业各项规划。大力扶持中小企业发展。（四）搞好春节商品供应和服务，扩大城乡居民消费。认真落实“家电下乡”、“汽车下乡”、农机补贴等政策。（五）努力保持对外贸易稳定增长。要继续实施以质取胜和市场多元化战略，积极开拓新兴市场，努力提高出口产品质量。落实国务院保持外贸稳定增长的政策措施。（六）维护金融稳定和金融安全。要妥善应对国际金融危机的变化，既要严密防范外来冲击，也要加强防范和化解内部风险，始终保持我国银行业稳健运行。

　　温家宝指出，我们的政府是人民的政府，必须始终坚持以人为本的执政理念。越是困难的时候，越要重视民意、体察民情、关注民生，维护社会和谐稳定。各地区、各部门要坚决落实中央关于保障和改善民生的一系列部署，着力解决关系人民群众切身利益的热点难点问题。一是高度重视做好就业工作。今年就业形势十分严峻，各地区、各部门要逐项落实国务院加强高校毕业生就业工作的七项措施和做好当前农民工工作的六项措施。二是关心困难群众生产生活。各级领导同志要经常深入灾区、贫困地区和困难企业，认真解决群众面临的各种实际问题，确保他们吃饱穿暖、安全过冬。认真落实中央确定的对灾区扶持政策，积极做好对口支援工作。三是抓好安全生产和社会稳定。全面开展安全生产隐患排查治理，加强公共聚集地的安全防范，抓好重点行业和重点企业的安全管理。强化社会治安综合治理，积极化解各类社会矛盾。各地方要精心组织丰富多彩、健康向上的群众文化活动，深入开展科技、文化、卫生“三下乡”活动，确保全国人民过一个欢乐、祥和、平安的春节。

　　温家宝最后说，今年政府工作艰巨而又繁重。我们要在以胡锦涛同志为总书记的党中央领导下，紧紧依靠全国人民，抓住机遇，迎接挑战，克服困难，以经济社会又好又快发展的新成绩迎接新中国成立６０周年！

　　国务院全体会议组成人员出席了会议，有关部门、单位负责人列席了会议。

My new blog at RGE:

Without even a nice note to public share holders, Chinese banks are in the process of reversing years of progress and is reverting back to state banks in a planned economy. Granted, socialism is the economic system of our time. However, unlike elsewhere, the Chinese government, which is the majority shareholder of most of China's banks, is directly ordering banks to finance a large part of the economic stimulus. The interest of minority shareholders, who care about profit, is increasingly taking a backseat. Shareholders at the very least deserve some clarification on how the promises from a few years ago that Chinese banks will commercialize are being systematically undermined. A note should look something like this...



Dear Chinese Banks Shareholders,



We wish you a prosperous new year of the ox! First of all, thank you for having so much confidence in our ability to transform ourselves into commercial entities. We really worked hard at it! The multiple bailouts we received from our majority shareholder, the Chinese government, helped a lot, but we have also restructured credit approval process and trained our managers in risk management in the past decade. Non-performing loan ratio fell to a historical low of less than 3% at the end of December last year. We wish we could say that we are continuing down this path, but we have some bad news.



As you know, the world economy and China are facing hard time. Export from China dropped for two months in a row, and our majority shareholder, the Chinese government, is worried about unemployment and social instability. So, they told us to forget about risk and profit and to focus on pumping money into the economy. Even our really tough regulator, the CBRC, has hold us to not worry so much about non-performing loans and profit. Well, they are the bosses, so we really don't have any choice but to follow their directions. We hope you understand our predicament.

You have probably heard of the 4 trillion RMB stimulus package launched by the central government. We are going to finance about half of it. By the way, the central government has ordered us to provide 1 trillion RMB of it before the end of February because they want the money out there as soon as possible. As you can understand, even if we don't sleep for the next two months, we won't have time to conduct careful risk evaluation on these projects in such a short time! Well, we don't have to look too carefully since these projects will be guaranteed by the central government. We will place these projects on a "green passage" for quick approvals and just cross our fingers and hope that these loans will not default.



That's not all though. Local governments all over China are clamoring for loans from our branches. They want us to help them finance over 20 trillion RMB worth of local projects. Yes, we know that most local governments run annual deficits and would have a hard time paying back loans. We are trying very hard to say no to them. But you know, our majority shareholder, the central government, has told us not to say no all the time because it would be selfish to do so. Well, we will say yes to most of the requests from provincial and major municipal governments. Even if we have doubts about their proposed projects, we are pretty sure that the central government will bail out provinces if they run into major financial trouble--we are hoping at least. We know this is not what you want to hear, but again, we have little choice in the matter.



Then, a couple of weeks ago, we got a strange order from our regulator the CBRC. Before, they were very tough on us and were constantly telling us to be very careful about risky borrowers. However, it seems they changed their minds completely. In the decree, they told us to lend to firms which are in financial trouble due to the global recession. We couldn't quite believe what we were reading, but our regulator is now telling us to find firms in trouble and give them loans. We got a bit confused because we had been told to only lend to healthy firms with good balance sheets and cash flow. Things must be really changing.



The property sector is also not doing very well. Because we got a bit greedy in 2007 and gave real estate developers and speculators willing to pay higher interests many loans, we are a bit worried that they will stop paying us back. In fact, many of them have done so already, and many of us have had to increase provisioning to deal with rising defaults. Sorry, this means less profit into the forseeable future. Relatedly, the central government has urged us to automatically refinance all of our mortgage assets at 30% lower interest rates. Of course, they want to boost consumption and possibly decrease delinquencies. But you see, this will mean less profit for us and for you, we are sorry to report.



If you haven't sold our shares yet, you are probably thinking about it. We don't blame you because we have really taken some large steps backward. Here is maybe some good news. Our majority shareholder, the central government, does not want to see our share prices go into a free fall. So, they are using their giant foreign exchange reserve to buy up bank shares to support their prices, albeit at a pretty low level. Share prices may be maintained, but we foresee declining profit and possibly significant losses for some of us in the medium future. Our majority shareholder will just buy up more and more public shares, we suppose. Pretty soon, maybe we won't need to write this note to our public shareholders any more.



Sincerely,



Listed Chinese Banks

Labels: Dear Chinese Banks Shareholders...

Great piece on the Southern Daily today. It explores the frustrated expectation of the migrant workers who have had to return home due to layoffs. Many of them are still hanging around the nearest urban center in an attempt to find some employment near one's home town. However, they are learning that the skills acquired in the south are useless in their hometowns because technologically they are not there yet! Talk about a mismatch of skills and technology! Clearly, frustrated expectation is building up; I guess we will see if political scientist Ted Gurr is right!? (Gurr of course theorized that revolution happens because of unmet expectations).


去还是留？家乡没工作没QQ也没“疯狂约会”
来源：南方都市报 　2009-01-15 07:50:27 　作者：

　　

　　两位曾在深圳打工的年青人返乡找工,留驻农村还是继续向城市进发?他们在选择

　　

　　图：有理想的米冬洪从深圳回到怀化后,度过一段漫长的适应期,对现在的处境,他一脸无奈。

　　深圳，有时在梦里还能见到。

　　真的很不习惯，怀化的工资比深圳低了一半，城市环境也差太多。———米冬洪

　　这里除了电视，什么娱乐都没有，想上个网，都得到老远的市里去。———段爱怜

　　高中毕业后她便离开了父母，技校毕业后他也离开了老家，两人向南，进入广东沿海城市打工。4年后，当他们逐渐适应了城市的工作和生活方式，一场突如其来的金融风波，使他们不得不离开熟悉了的城市，回到已经有些陌生的家乡。

　　在家乡，他们和当地大量下岗工人、失地农民一起竞争有限的岗位，他们发现，自己在城市学到的技能在这里并无施展之处，自降身价也难以找到工作。这里除了电视，什么娱乐都没有，想上个网，都得到老远的市里去。这让他们很纠结，重新燃起到南方打工的想法，可凭一己之力呆在城市的信心依然存在。

　　城市还是农村，何去何从？此次春运中，我们采访了很多外来工，几乎每个年轻人都存在年后回不回来的犹豫。这种心情，在他们两人身上，尤为明显。

　　段爱怜仍在湖南怀化坚守，距离过年还剩13天，家里接连来了好几个电话催她回家；但她始终在火车站附近一个小旅馆里与怀化市几个人力市场之间来回。

　　“现在找工作很难，房间一天15块钱，我还想多找几天。”重新打量了一遍只有几个平方米大的临时住所，这位22岁的姑娘重重地拍了拍床板，“没什么地方坐的，就坐床板上吧”。

　　两个多月前，段爱怜还是深圳宝安区祥群电子科技公司的质检员，月薪1500多元。金融风暴袭来，主要靠出口过活的公司效益大减而裁员，段在被裁之列。没有找到工厂进，无奈之下，她只有离开工作、生活将近4年之久的深圳，回到湖南怀化洪江龙田乡的老家。

　　“这里除了电视，什么娱乐都没有，想上个网，都得到老远的市里去。”不到两个星期，在家里闲得快要闷出病来的段爱怜便又开始萌生要回深圳打工的想法，“可是现在那边工作也不好找，电视新闻里说光珠三角就有485万人失业，工厂一间接一间倒闭；父母不放心，让我就近随便找个活干就行”。

　　段爱怜选择了距离家比较近、相对比较发达的怀化市———一个包括流动人口在内，约有50万人口的湖南中型城市去找工。

　　失业回乡难以适应

　　段爱怜往怀化赶时，来自怀化市中方县铜鼎乡青市村的米冬洪早在6个月前，从深圳失业回家后，便已离开乡下老家，来到怀化市打拼；此前，他在深圳韩国三星、沃尔玛集团等公司打过4年多时间的工。

　　“每家每人只有4分田，窝在家里什么前途都没有。”米冬洪所在的乡村山多地少，年轻人出门打工找钱是青市村人多年的传统。米冬洪从外面回乡后，第一件事便是在家乡的县市里重新找工，重新开始。

　　“真的是很不习惯，工资比深圳低了一半，城市环境也差太多。”短短6个月，米冬洪先后换了3份工作，每份工作都做不过两个月，“都取笑我是‘湘西土匪’，从外面跑回来和大家抢饭碗来了，没有人相信我离开深圳是‘混’不下去。”被大家公认头脑灵活的米冬洪有苦说不出。

　　其实他不知道，2008年6月份，金融危机对中国的实体经济冲击那时才刚刚开始，远在千里之外的湖南怀化，普通的乡亲哪里知道，一场失业潮将不可避免地席卷整个中国，米冬洪只是这股潮水中的一个浪花而已。

　　打工学到技能“无用”

　　来到怀化，段爱怜在火车站附近找了一家小旅馆，定下一个临时住所后，便开始在怀化市三个人才市场到处转悠，寻找适合自己的工作。“都是招聘保姆、营业员、文员之类的，找不到一个适合我的。”段爱怜在深圳打工的公司主要是做电脑插座、耳机之类产品，经过培训，做了两年多时间质检员的她很想找一份和自己以前工种类似的工作，“那样工资也会高一些”。

　　怀化服务业较为发达，工业则比较薄弱，区内工厂本来就不多，适合段爱怜工作要求的工厂根本无法找到，月薪向深圳看齐更是无从谈起。

　　“在怀化，工厂工人月薪是600至700元。”怀化市劳动和社会保障局职介中心主任胡辉说，怀化国企很少，民企待遇太低；从去年5月份开始，职介中心便陆续开始有从沿海一带失业回来的返乡劳务工找工，这些人在外面学了一些技能回乡，但在这边却是用不上；求职者和用人单位在各方面都谈不拢，结果求职成功率很低。

　　米冬洪的情况稍好。初到怀化时，他应聘一家房地产公司的销售员，应聘上了。很快，他发现卖楼其实并不容易。楼市“寒冬”早在金融危机来袭之前，已经来到。任你如何勤奋、口才如何棒，但看楼的客户几天不见一个。卖不出楼房，光靠基本工资，在怀化市生存下去都成问题。

　　一个多月后，灰心丧气的米冬洪离开房产公司，转而跟着别人去做工程；不久之后，发现这行饭其实也不是自己能吃的；接着，又进入一家商店当推销员，推销家电。

　　2009年1月13日下午，在怀化市鹤城区人力资源市场，米冬洪在找工报名登记表上填下的工作意向是在深圳学会的“开叉车”，月薪要求则是“1500元”。现有工作和自己意向相差太远，薪水和在深圳时更不能比；米冬洪考虑着自己的再次辞工。

　　降低“身价”工作也难求

　　段爱怜在怀化市找了一个多月工，始终没有找到一家适合她的。

　　在外面打工4年，生活上已经很“城市化”的她不想回家和父母一样，把今后一辈子时光放在几块庄稼地里，她想留在城市，就像在深圳那样，天天上班，月底拿了工资，然后便约上几个姐妹去逛街；平时工厂没活干，就去上上网听听歌、聊QQ；偶尔甚至还可以去会会网友，玩玩和陌生男子见面的“疯狂游戏 ”。

　　在偏僻的乡下这些都没法做，段爱怜觉得自己必须在怀化市找到一个工作，哪怕是在工厂里再次从普工做起，“再苦再累我也能忍受，以前不就是这么过来的吗”。她开始放下身段，降低薪资要求，丢弃刚到怀化时想要找类似在深圳做过的工种的幻想，只要一个工作就行。

　　返乡找工人员激增

　　“看，这里绝大多数都是从沿海一带回来要在家乡找工的务工人员”，1月12日下午，怀化市鹤城区人力资源市场，市场部主任易刚生听说记者要采访金融危机下返乡的务工人员在当地找工情况，一下子丢出了两大叠找工人员的报名登记表。

　　“这还只是部分。”易刚生透露，去年5月份，开始出现从沿海返乡的农民工到鹤城区人力资源市场找工的情况；到 11、12月份时，这类找工人员人数猛增，以前，市场每天平均只接待各类找工人员十个左右，后来，这个人数激增至六十多人；其中绝大多数是因工厂倒闭失业或生意不景气裁员而被迫返回怀化的农民工；目前，找工报名册上，返乡务工人员占到总数的40%.段爱怜和米冬洪只是这股巨大返乡洪流中的其中两个。

　　两个多月过去了，一直没有找到一份工作的段爱怜和6个月来始终没有找到自己喜欢工作的米冬洪开始把希望寄托在春节后的怀化市三个人力市场的招聘会上。由于快要过年，三个人力市场基本上已经停止举行新的人才招聘会。

　　易刚生说，还有十几天就要过年了，许多没有出来找工的返乡农民工过完年后就会出来找工，“到时找工人数将更为可怕”。

　　鹤城区就业服务管理局副局长毛洪银说，根据目前的情况，返乡农民工想在有限的工作岗位上找到自己的位置，首先应该转变观念，怀化的工资水平肯定是不能和沿海特别是深圳这些发达城市相提并论；其次，放下在外地学到了一身“本事”的身段，在当地重新接受培训，掌握适合怀化现有条件的工作技能。

　　“还希望他们有的人利用在外面扩展的视野和学到的技能，自己创业，解决自己就业问题同时，也制造新的就业机会。 ”毛洪银有些无奈，金融危机冲击下，怀化本地的工作岗位也已减少，之前，当地还有大量下岗工人、失地农民的工作需要解决；现在突然间，又出现大量返乡务工人员需要推荐工作，有的人找不到工是在所难免。

　　“我能做什么？”

　　“我能做什么？”段爱怜从没有想过自己创业，“实在找不到，就再回去”。在家乡找一份工的希望日渐渺茫，段在怀化市火车站附近的临时小窝里，不止一次产生过重回深圳打工的冲动。

　　“深圳，有时在梦里还能见到。”米冬洪说，自己刚到深圳，开始也是感到陌生和恐惧，觉得这座美丽的城市不可能是自己有能力终身呆下去的地方；经过4年的打拼和不断的学习，先后掌握了数门技能在身的他，却慢慢地对城市有了梦想，他想留下来。

　　“只要我够努力、够勤奋。”给米冬洪信心的是金融危机来临之前，他的打工经历一度一帆风顺。

　　2004年2月，米冬洪从技校毕业，到深圳进入的第一家公司，便是韩企三星集团。在这里，米冬洪用一年的时间，从一名普工“晋升”为叉车工。 2006月，他胜利跳槽至名气更大的沃尔玛公司，薪水从原来的1400元猛增至1800多元。工作几个月后，又一次机遇向他招手。公司8个叉车工联合，打算到深圳技能培训中心学塔吊。“在盐田港，一个塔吊工一个月至少拿4500元，多的有600元。”米冬洪那时觉得，实现留城的梦想其实并不是遥不可及，“ 只要能吃苦，只要能抓住机会”。由于没有机械实际操作学习，塔吊最终没有学成；但这把火给米冬洪燃起的希望越发烧得旺了起来；直至有一天，他最终不得不突然离开深圳。

　　“一个人坐火车回的家。”米冬洪说自己永远忘不了独自一个人回家的那种感觉，他在想着，“如果有机会，我当然还想回去”。

　　采写：本报记者 周松柏 张艳芬 涂峰 肖海坤

　　摄影：本报记者 王昕伟

Well, the day we've been waiting for is here. Banks are now formally told to forget about NPL ratios. Results? Rising NPLs......

China to Tolerate Increase in Bad Loans, Relax Lending Rules
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By Philip Lagerkranser

Jan. 12 (Bloomberg) -- China will tolerate an increase in bad debt this year as it eases rules governing bank lending to prop up an economy that’s slowing faster than expected, the nation’s banking regulator said.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission will drop its target of reducing the balance and ratio of bad loans after five years of declines, and instead aim to prevent a “massive and rapid rebound” in soured debts, Chairman Liu Mingkang said in Beijing today. A transcript of his speech was obtained by Bloomberg News.

Looser requirements may fuel concerns about a surge in bad loans, four years after China finished a cleanup of its banking system that cost more than $500 billion. Lenders will likely face weakening asset quality, rising defaults and “significant” constraints on profits in 2009, Standard & Poor’s said Jan. 7.

“What we’re concerned about is whether banks will, under government interference, boost lending without properly recognizing the risks,” said Liao Qiang, the rating company’s Beijing-based analyst, in an interview. “Governments tend to relax prudential regulatory requirements in difficult times. The key is how banks” react.

Measures to boost credit include allowing banks to lend to businesses afflicted by “temporary” financial woes due to the global recession but with sound fundamentals, Liu said. Lenders can also “restructure” loans and “scientifically” adjust the types and maturities of debt, and the regulator will support the sale and securitization of loans, he said without elaborating.

‘Arduous Task’

Industrial & Commercial Bank of China Ltd., the world’s largest bank by market value, and competitors have said they’ll increase lending as part of the government’s $590 billion stimulus package, announced in November. China’s biggest banks are all state-controlled.

Chinese banks extended 740 billion yuan ($108 billion) of new loans in December, the most since January 2008, the Shanghai Securities News reported today, citing unidentified people.

The CBRC encourages lending to fund small and medium-sized businesses, mergers and acquisitions among large companies, as well as credit for automobile and home appliance purchases, according to the transcript.

“The downside risk to the Chinese economy is even worse than anticipated,” Liu, 62, said in the speech. “The 8 percent growth target is of great importance, but an exceptionally arduous task.” Liu last month said expansion of 7 percent or less could trigger social instability.

China’s economy will expand 7.5 percent this year, the slowest pace in almost two decades, as the global financial crisis worsens, the World Bank predicts. Exports probably fell the most in a decade in December even after the government increased rebates, pledged more export loans and stalled currency gains, according to economists surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Funding Channels

The regulator will have “reasonable tolerance” for rising bad loans, Liu said. Shrinking corporate profits and interference by local governments have “seriously” reduced borrowers’ willingness to repay debts, he added. Banks cut their average bad-loan ratio to 5.49 percent at the end of September, from 6.3 percent six months earlier.

Still, the CBRC will “strictly” ban companies from taking up new project loans to repay existing ones, and prohibit bundling of non-performing assets into securities, according to the transcript. Banks aren’t allowed lend to production projects before the investors get relevant approvals, Liu said.

The regulator will also broaden the channels for banks to boost capital and urge them to increase provisions, Liu said without being more specific.

The banking regulator on Jan. 10 said it would “allow qualified small and medium-sized banks to moderately exceed the loan-to-deposit requirement.” Chinese lenders are required to keep outstanding loans below 75 percent of their deposits.

Dear All, my new post on RGE Monitor:

"Will job losses lead to social unrest?"

Victor Shih | Jan 9, 2009

Today, there was a note written by Wang Tao at UBS with the above title. The question is a crucial one today because bullish sentiment for China depends almost entirely on the Chinese government's ability to prevent large scale social instability. The conclusion of the piece was that "large-scale unrest that threatens general social stability and overall investor confidence is unlikely." The arguments sound quite reasonable:

1. Job losses will only be about 15 million, or 3.5% of non-agricultural employment.

2. Migrant workers, who are hit the hardest, can't organize effectively anyway.

3. China weathered the last wave of unemployment, which saw unemployment level at around 35 million, with little difficulties in the late 90s. And, China had less money back then.

I have no issue with argument #3. Indeed, though ugly, China weathered the unemployment wave in the late 90s with only scattered protests in a smattering of cities in the northeast and the interior. All in all, not so bad (well, it was bad for the unemployed!).

However, I find the 15 million figure highly unlikely, even for now, much less for 2009. A Ministry of Labor and Social Security official revealed recently that some 10 million migrant workers have already been laid off and returned to the countryside. It seems extremely optimistic to say that total unemployed migrant workers in 2009 will be 15 million. Let's start the calculation again.

First, total migrant labor population in 2007 was about 140 million. I think global recession and partial rebalancing will impact at least 20% of the migrant labor population. This makes about 28 million migrant workers unemployed in 2009. On top of that, education officials revealed recently that only 70% of the 6 million or so college graduates found jobs in 2008. This leaves unemployed college graduate population at 1.8 million. In 2009, I expect things to be much worse, so at least 50% of college graduates will be unemployed, creating another 3 million or so college educated unemployed. For the Chinese government, this is the most dangerous ingredient since it was collective action by college students that led to systemic political trauma in 1989. To prevent recurrence, the central government will likely roll out a scheme to pay for the living expenses of almost all unemployed college graduates. I think my students at Northwestern would have wished for that policy too!

So, we are up to 33 million unemployed already, nearly the highs in the late 90s. If we add a couple million more from layoffs from urban private and FIEs, we would have an unemployed force of at least 35 million. I would not be surprise if at the end of 2009, we see an unemployed labor force of 50 million. To be sure, if we believe in the other arguments that Ms. Wang puts forth, we would not see a major problem. At the extreme, the central government would simply roll out subsidies that pay for the living expenses of every unemployed person. Even if the unemployed force reaches 50 million, the Chinese government would only have to pay (50 million*100dollar*12 months) 60 billion USD (408 billion RMB). That is a substantial sum, but China can surely handle it for two to three years, suffering perhaps slightly lower credit ratings. However, the notion that migrant workers have less ability to act collectively is unfounded based on everything that we know about unrests in China. All of the rebellions in Chinese history were led and carried out by peasants, including the one that put the current regime in power. Besides 1989, the largest domestic disturbance took place in rural Renshou County in the mid 90s, which saw the deployment of tens of thousands of troops. Furthermore, unlike the layoffs in the 90s, which mostly affected middle-age or elderly SOE workers, the current wave of layoffs affects a young and vibrant cohort most capable of carrying violent collective action against the state. Without any systematic triggers, we at least will see a spike in localized riots which necessitate the mobilization of People's Armed Police (PAP) units all over China. The central government would also be compelled to (and they are doing so already) roll out generous unemployment benefits for migrant workers and college graduates (to the tune of 300-400 billion RMB). If a systematic trigger occurs and instability spreads to a sizable city, we will see the large scale mobilization of both PAP and army units and possibly substantial bloodshed. In most scenarios, the CCP regime would still survive a large scale, cross regional rebellion. However, "overall investor confidence" will be lost.

What is the "systematic trigger" which I refer to? I don't know exactly what it would be. However, if we look back in history, it can be a wide range of events, including the death of a popular leader, a serious natural disaster, the spread of a deathly infectious disease, a small student demonstration turned violent, religious groups....etc. The point is that there is an interactive effect which is quite harmless when unemployment is low (as shown last year). However, when unemployment is high, a number of different shocks can interact with unemployment to create something explosive. I think the UBS note, besides getting some numbers and history wrong, vastly underestimates the possibility of this interactive effect.

A surprisingly sympathetic story on former Beijing Vice Mayor Liu Zhihua appeared on the Legal Daily. Readers may recall that Liu Zhihua was the Beijing Vice Mayor in charge of construction who was arrested for corruption in 2006. The story is full of quotes from his defense attorney, which contrasts sharply with the usual stories on corruption (where the defendant is seen as absolutely in the wrong). To be sure, Liu took some advantage of his position by having "uncles" sponsor his son's education in the US. He even got a discount on an apartment for his son. However, the defense attorney claims that much of the bribery was actually done by his one mistress Wang Jianrui. This contrasts sharply with earlier accounts which accuse Liu of having multiple mistresses. Like Qiu Xiaohua, the story here seems to be that Liu, estranged from his sick wife, befriended and started a relationship with Wang Jianrui. The end of the story even cited Liu's bravery during the SARS crisis. Given the neutral tone of the story,Liu's appeal, which is currently pending, may have a chance...

矿工、副市长、情妇、受贿：高官刘志华落马关键词

2008年11月09日11:01 来源：《法制日报》
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刘志华和情妇王建瑞　资料图片
　　10月27日，59岁的原北京市副市长刘志华在秦城监狱手写了3份上诉书，针对一审判决认定的十几项犯罪事实逐一写明不同意见，正式向河北省衡水市中级人民法院提出上诉请求。此前，10月18日，刘志华因受贿罪被河北省衡水市中级法院判处死刑，缓期两年执行。

　　记者从刘志华手写的上诉状看，字体一般但书写认真。这印证了刘志华大学时期班主任刘庆唐的回忆：刘志华的字写得很差。

　　刘志华的辩护律师莫少平在接受本报记者采访时说：“刘志华案历经两年多，坊间有诸多传闻，但就起诉书和法院判决书看，基本可以确定其与物美张文中案无关、与周良洛案无关、与奥运工程无关。检察机关对刘志华的十项起诉全部是刘主动交待的。”

　　儿子留学海外收受他人资助

　　刘志华2006年6月9日被双规，被查出来的个人存款(包括妻子、儿子的)共有五六十万元。除此之外，办案机关没有在其办公室和家里搜出巨额财产。

　　刘志华被判受贿罪，其中与儿子有关的有两项：一是其子张伟在留学期间收受他人的资助。二是，为儿子买了一套低于市场价格的普通住宅。

　　据律师介绍，张伟在留学期间，边打工边上学，潘守文、李德雷、穆麒茹等人去加拿大的时候，由于受到过刘志华的“帮助”而主动资助过张伟。法院认为：刘志华利用职务便利为上述人员谋取利益后，上述人员以资助张伟上学等名义，给予张伟外币，刘志华事后予以默许，其行为属钱权交易的性质，上述行为构成受贿罪。

　　张伟回国之后，没有自己的独立住房。为此，刘志华的妻子多次催促其为儿子解决一套住房。涉案楼盘燕尚园当时的市场价是5000元每平方米。对职工有两种内部价：3100元每平方米和4250元每平方米。刘志华找了燕尚园的开发商之后，为张伟按照4250元的内部价格购买了一套住宅。

　　检察机关认为：刘志华利用职务上的便利，为燕尚园的开发公司提供了便利，后刘志华向该公司提出为其子张伟购买了住房。按照发改委价格认定中心所作的价格鉴定，确定当时的购买价明显低于当时市场价27.81万元之多。这部分购房的差价被认定为受贿。

受贿大部分财物与情妇有关

　　检法两家共同认定的刘志华受贿金额共计696.59万元，除上述其子张伟购买住房差价和在国外留学期间收受的资助外，另外还包括一些礼品，剩下的大部分与一名叫王建瑞的女人有关。

　　庭上，当着在旁听席上的妻子，刘志华承认与王建瑞的情人关系。据说，这是他妻子第一次听说他有情人。一名知情人在接受本报记者采访时说：“让情妇涉足自己的政治事业太深，是刘志华犯的最大的错误。”

　　检方指控：2000年11月至2006年初，被告人刘志华伙同其情妇王建瑞分两次向北京中融物产有限责任公司(以下简称中融公司)董事长回铁勇索要价值人民币40.90万元的别克轿车一辆、人民币400万元，三次共收受回铁勇给予的6000美元、2000欧元。

　　据调查，刘志华为中融公司因建设资金不足而停工的“三义大厦”以人民币4亿元的价格置换给国家机械工业局和为该公司的“棉花片危改项目”规划方案批准等事宜提供了帮助。

　　事后，王建瑞多次找回铁勇索要400万元，让其以投资的形式入股北京鹏森工程项目管理有限责任公司(以下简称鹏森公司)。据查，回铁勇只是名义股东，没有实际参与鹏森公司的经营。

　　辩护人莫少平律师认为，王建瑞是鹏森公司的总经理，但刘志华并不是股东，此400万元不应视为刘受贿所得。至于别克轿车，产权仍在北京中融公司，王建瑞仅拥有使用权，不应算在刘志华名下。

　　但是检方认为：在鹏森公司的经营、管理中，许多事项是王建瑞与刘志华共同商议决定，该公司所代建、管理的工程，也都是经刘志华利用职权干预才承接的，因此可以认定刘志华、王建瑞实际控制、占有该400万元的事实。至于别克车，法院认为，根据现有证据可以认定刘志华伙同王建瑞向回铁勇索要别克车的事实。有充分的证据证明，二人是出于将车登记在个人名下影响不好考虑，才将车登记在公司名下，但该车不属于公司所有。

　　刘志华受贿内容的另外一大项是总价值150多万元的两套住宅，均在王建瑞名下。

　　起诉书显示，2002年9月至2004年11月，刘志华与王建瑞为方便姘居，多次向北京市天创房地产公司总经理王少武索要住房。为此，2004年11月王少武将位于复兴门北大街11号楼某住房送给王建瑞。该房屋鉴定价值52.1万元。

据检方指控，2005年10月，刘晓光公司下属的北京阳光金都置业有限公司开发的建设项目规划方案上报刘志华后，刘迟迟不予签批。为此，2006年1月24日，刘晓光安排王建瑞获得“梵谷水郡”D2-2-901室的房屋认购书。该房价值99.61万元。

　　围绕着王建瑞收受的房产是否可以给刘志华定罪，在一审开庭时成为控辩双方争论的一个焦点。莫少平律师认为，《起诉书》是根据两高于2007年7月8日发布的《意见》，对刘志华涉嫌受贿犯罪的行为作出指控的。但刘志华案发生在这个时间之前，故意见对本案是否具有溯及力值得探讨。但法院认为：意见的第二条规定，对于司法解释实施前发生的行为，行为发生时没有相关司法解释，司法解释实施后尚未处理或者正在处理的案件，依照司法解释的规定办理。根据上述规定，对本案的处理适用两高意见。

　　刘志华与王建瑞与1995年在出差的火车上认识。后王建瑞与丈夫离婚，与刘志华保持情人关系一直到事发。2006年，刘志华被双规时，王建瑞已经48岁。

　　刘志华承认，自己对不起妻子、儿子，甚至对不起王建瑞。据他描述，妻子体弱多病，常年吃斋念佛。自己与王建瑞十多年的交往中，确实得到过来自于她的很多慰藉。

　　“对网上的某篇文章中提到的，刘志华有多名情妇，有些情妇甚至与刘志华的妻子起过冲突的说法，缺少事实依据。刘志华的妻子张淑兰是在法庭上第一次得知刘志华有情妇。”辩护律师莫少平说。

矿工出身曾经政绩显赫

　　2006年6月9日，是刘志华人生中的重要转折点。这一天，他被有关部门带走调查。事隔一天，北京市第十二届人民代表大会常务委员会决定免去其副市长职务。

　　刘志华出生于1949年4月，祖籍辽宁省盘锦。1968年8月，刘志华中学毕业，成为了北京京西煤矿的一名工人。

　　“我做过9年的矿工。6年井下，3年井上。”在谈及早年的这段经历的时候，庭上的刘志华一度落泪。“如果我被判死刑，就算我在煤矿瓦斯爆炸中没被救过来。”

　　1977年，28岁的刘志华于中国恢复高考之后，顺利考取了北京经济学院劳动经济系。据悉，正是从这一年起，北京经济学院开始恢复招收本科生。刘志华大学时候的班主任刘庆唐，网上有一段他当年的回忆：刘志华的字写得很差，文章写得也糟糕，但口才极好，说起话来头头是道，很有演讲和做报告的天赋。

　　1981年，32岁的刘志华大学毕业，被分配到了北京市劳动局。由于当年大学生属于稀缺资源，加之他良好的口才和表达能力，很快就从一个普通工作人员成为该局工资处的处长。

　　1989年10月，位居北京市劳动局副局长的刘志华被调到劳动部，工作将近5年。凭借其过人的人际关系能力，刘志华从最初担任劳动部劳动工资研究所建所后的第一任负责人，先后调任劳动部综合计划司副司长、计划与工资司司长。

　　1994年4月，刘志华回到北京市劳动局，当了三年局长，此后任北京市西城区区委书记。

　　1998年4月，这位前煤矿工人正式进入北京市政府，任北京市政府秘书长。

　　1999年7月，50岁的刘志华成为北京市副市长，在9名副市长中排名第4，主管城市建设规划，负责建设、国土房管、体育、轨道交通建设方面的工作，可谓大权在握。据说，刘每年经手审批的项目涉及金额有2000亿元之多。2001年5月起，刘志华兼任了中关村科技园区管委会主任。

　　2003年，“非典”期间，他担任总指挥带领几千人七天七夜建好小汤山战地医院。

　　另外，他还分管2008年奥运会工程建设工作，成为北京市政商两界炙手可热的人物。据悉，事发前刘志华以清廉示人，甚至没有专职的司机。

　　在他亲笔书写的上诉书上，他也提到希望法院综合考虑其案发前对社会的贡献。法庭上陈述中，刘志华几度落泪。他承认了自己大部分的受贿细节，并承认自己随着职务的升迁，在意志等方面发生了变化。（焦红艳 陈虹伟）

A reporter colleague notes a curious announcement on the radio last night:

"a vice governor of the PBoC was interviewed on state radio last night and said the central bank was targetting new lending of 4.6 trillion yuan in 2009. Yet he also said that new lending in 2008 was 4.5 trillion yuan. So, that would mean the central bank is targetting only 100 bln yuan of extra bank lending in 2009 which seems odd given that the banks have been told to boost lending in the face of the economic slowdown."

He further notes that the original new loan target in 2008 was to be 3.6 trillion RMB. So why is the year end figure 4.5 trillion??


My reply: As far as I know, much of the huge boost in lending WAS a result of manic lending in the last quarter. I saw a figure which I used in the editorial which says November alone had 477 billion in lending. Lending is perhaps too precise; "credit" is perhaps more accurate to capture what banks provided in the last quarter. This vice governor (Yi Gang?) was giving a target on incremental loans, but usually we only know about what they do on the aggregate. That is, what is the percentage increase in loans outstanding. As far as I know, next year's target is something like 15-16%, which is higher than this year's 11-12%. That might work out to be 4.6 trillion in new loans (depends on how much loans come due next year...etc.).

Generally speaking, the PBOC tends not to be enthusiastic supporters of massive investment programs. However, they follow the same master as everyone else, so they will bow to pressure to increase lending. In any event, banks see which way the wind is blowing and will exceed the quota if they think Hu will be pleased with them. The Ag Bank has been specially tuned into political signals. I think Guo Shuqing had better follow suit if he wants to be the next governor of PBOC.